2020 Autopsy: The Suburbs

The Million MAGA March is currently going on in Washington, DC.

Alex Jones, Mike Cernovich, Jack Posobiec, Nick Fuentes and other Grift Right civnat types are there. It was fraud. The election was stolen from them. The Daily Republican has done a complete 180 and has been breathlessly hyping this rally after condemning “Neo-Nazis” and activism for years.

Do you know who is tellingly not there though? It is lots of people who used to be associated with them in 2015-2016 under the Alt-Right umbrella. Those of us who were not shocked that Donald Trump lost the 2020 election and had been saying it was going to happen for years are not attending the Million MAGA March. In fact, Donald Trump lost the 2020 election because we didn’t vote for him.

The “far right” is a myth. There is no evidence to support the stereotype that everyone who is an ethnocentric White American is a conservative Republican. This is true of some people like Andrew Anglin and Nick Fuentes who come from upper middle class suburbs. The vast majority of people who are ethnocentric White Americans – what you would misleadingly call the “far right” vote – tend to be blue-collar, White male Indies with populist and nationalist politics making under $100,000 a year. They are concentrated in rural areas and the middle suburbs and tend to be extremely cynical about mainstream politics. They are both college-educated and working class and traditional non-voters.

Where is the “racist vote” in the American electorate? It is in the Center.

Who are the populists who want to slam the border shut and crush Wall Street and who the believe the system is rigged against them? 79% of the “Hard Pressed Skeptics” are young Indies who say that immigrants are burden on this country compared to only 21% of business conservatives.

I’m not on the Right.

I’m a Hard-Pressed Skeptic in the Center.

I’m a social conservative, an economic populist, a moderate, a nationalist, an Independent swing voter. I’m an ethnocentric White male voter who supports traditional moral values.

When I looked at MAGA in 2020, I saw trannies dancing with pom poms to YMCA, Trump boasting about DOW 30,000 and his tax cuts and letting the super predators out of jail and doing nothing while Antifa and Black Lives Matter burned down the country. Donald Trump and the GOP got cucked on race. I was told on multiple occasions that ethnocentric White men have “no place in the Republican Party.” Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign was obsessed with winning over millions of based blacks with the Platinum Plan. They condemn “identity politics” in one breath while pandering to every other demographic group except mine in the next. They are terrified that the Left will accuse them of various -isms and -phobias.

In theory, social conservatism is supposed to be what I have in common with the mainstream Right, but where is it? Do you believe mainstream conservatism was conserving our culture under Donald Trump? What is the Center Right doing for swing voters like me on that front?

If the mainstream Right is telling me that I have “no place in the Republican Party” and the social conservatism it is offering is merely dog whistling in election season while the neoliberal economics is the real agenda, why should I care if they lose? Evidently, millions of us have drawn the same conclusion. Joe Biden is going to be an awful president, but maybe at least he will raise their taxes. We elected Donald Trump because we thought he was going to be a strong leader. He was handed two major national crises which required a strong hand to address a threat to the nation – COVID and the George Floyd riots – and he flunked both of them. COVID in particular was a missed opportunity for his brand of xenophobic, authoritarian, nationalist politics to gain ground with moderates and Independent voters and he blew it. He went on national television and talked about ingesting disinfectant as a treatment!

+250,000 Americans are now dead of COVID-19.

More than any other issue, it was COVID that killed Blumpf with moderate voters, Independent voters and White college-educated voters. These people in the Center had supported Trumpism 1.0 in 2016. Blumpf’s poll numbers dropped like a rock after the “just the flu” narrative collapsed in the spring. The exit polls show that that COVID and health care costs dominated the election.

Independent White male blue-collar voters who supported Donald Trump in 2016 voted against him in the 2020 election by the largest margin since the 1980s.

The Fulcrum:

“The population of voters who don’t identify with either major party has trended upwards in the past two decades and accounted for 36 percent of the potential electorate this fall, according to Gallup. They nonetheless cast only 26 percent of the ballots last week, according to the more widely used of the two national exit polls, by Edison Research.

The Democratic former vice president got 54 percent of their votes, to 41 percent for President Trump.

It was the most lopsided independent vote since George H.W. Bush won it by 14 points on his way to defeating Michael Dukakis in 1988. Trump won the White House with a 4-point edge among unaffiliated voters four years ago and Barack Obama won in 2008 with the help of an 8-point margin of independents.

Unaffiliated voters also played a decisive role in tipping several battleground states narrowly in favor of Biden, who has become president-elect with at last 290 electoral votes as of Friday and a popular vote margin of more than 5 million. …”

Trump lost a huge amount of group in the middle because of COVID. It played out exactly like I always said it would too. It sealed his image as an incompetent idiot in the Center.

Where did Trump lose the election? It wasn’t in the big cities. In fact, Philadelphia swung toward Trump. It was in the working class suburbs where his own base is or was concentrated:

He underperformed his 2016 result in places like Macomb County, MI.

Before the 2020 election, there was clear evidence that Woke liberals were fired up and ready to vote for Joe Biden, but Donald’s Trump former Alt-Right supporters were not motivated to vote for him. The Far Center or the Hard-Pressed Skeptics had turned against Donald Trump.

Reuters:

“NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and focus on the grievances of white voters helped him win the 2016 election. But a Reuters analysis of public opinion over the last four years suggests that Trump’s brand of white identity politics may be less effective in the 2020 election campaign. …

Reuters/Ipsos polling of 4,436 U.S. adults in July showed that people who rejected racial stereotypes were more interested in voting in the 2020 general election than those who expressed stronger levels of anti-black or anti-Hispanic biases.

In 2016, it was the reverse. The Reuters analysis shows that Trump’s narrow win came at a time when Americans with strong anti-black opinions were the more politically engaged group. While Reuters did not measure anti-Hispanic biases in 2016, political scientists say that people who express them closely overlap with those who are biased against other racial minorities.

This year’s poll found that among Americans who feel that blacks and whites are equal, or that blacks are superior to whites, 82% expressed a strong interest in voting in 2020. That was 7 percentage points higher than people who feel strongly that whites are superior to blacks.

“There is some indication that racial liberals are more energized than the racially intolerant,” said University of Michigan political scientist Vincent Hutchings, who reviewed Reuters’ findings. “That would seem to be good news for the Democrats and bad news for the Republicans.”

Donald Trump’s presidency and his 2020 campaign alienated them. It wasn’t the same kind of campaign that he ran in 2016. It was a dud. It was the Jared Kushner and Steve Bannon fever dream of legions of Based Black civnats who would vote for economic nationalism. In fact, the Trump campaign didn’t want to appeal to and excite the group of voters that won him the 2016 election.

In the 2016 campaign, Trump support was strongly correlated with White ethnocentrism. It was the White male Indies in the Far Center warming to him:

But … those people are insignificant? Oh really?

15% of White Americans say that their racial identity is “extremely important” or “very important” to them. This is an even larger share of the right-leaning electorate.

The Far Center or Radical Center is real. They disappeared in the 2020 election.

Washington Post:

“Newly released data from the American National Election Study’s 2016 Pilot Study show that both white racial identity and beliefs that whites are treated unfairly are powerful predictors of support for Donald Trump in the Republican primaries …

These graphs show that white independents and Republicans who think their identity as whites is extremely important are more than 30 points more likely to support Trump than those who think their racial identity is not important. …

Likewise, white Americans who perceive a great deal of discrimination against their race are almost 40 points more likely to support Trump than those who don’t think whites face any discrimination.

And whites who think it’s extremely likely that “many whites are unable to find a job because employers are hiring minorities instead” are over 50 points more likely to support Trump than those who think it’s unlikely that many whites are losing jobs to minorities. …”

The “Far Right” vote is a downscale, White male Indie vote in the Center in the “Hard-Pressed Skeptic” swath of the American electorate. These people are not conservative Republicans.

Steve Bannon is a cuckservative Boomer. This political genius was disappointed that Trump wasn’t condemning White ethnonationalism hard enough in the first debate.

VOX:

“This is the argument Duke political scientist Ashley Jardina makes in her book White Identity Politics. Drawing on a decade of data from American National Election Studies surveys, Jardina claims that white Americans — roughly 30 to 40 percent of them — now identify with their whiteness in a politically meaningful way. Importantly, this racial solidarity doesn’t always overlap with racism, but it does mean that racial identity is becoming a more salient force in American politics. …”

30% to 40% of White Americans now identify with their whiteness (!!!)

“For example, in my work, I find that white identifiers are especially supportive of policies like Social Security and Medicare. Unlike means-tested policies that fall under the umbrella term “welfare” and have been racialized such that now they are associated with blacks and other minorities, Social Security and Medicare are viewed as benefiting all groups, including whites.

Whites with higher levels of racial identity like these policies, which means that politicians might garner a lot of support across racial groups by focusing on efforts to protect and preserve these policies. …”

Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign made a fatal mistake.

It should have moved to the Center. It should have offered more racism and more populism, not less. He lost the election because he was perceived as too conservative. The Right is less racist than the Center. The Trump 2020 campaign won the upper middle class though by a landslide.

This nonsense about a stolen election is false. Where was the election stolen?

USA Today:

“President-elect Joe Biden fared about the same in Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee as Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Trump actually won more votes in Philadelphia and Detroit than he did four years ago.

Instead, Biden narrowly carried Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by widening support in what’s become a new Democratic stronghold: the suburbs and exurbs around cities. …

In Philadelphia County, which includes all of Philadelphia, Trump received 128,000 votes as of Wednesday, with more absentee ballots still to be counted. That’s nearly 20,000 more votes than the 109,000 votes Trump got in Philadelphia in 2016. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported Trump carried four wards in the city, two more than he did in 2016.

Biden won Philadelphia, carrying 81% of the vote to Trump’s 18%, a smaller spread than Clinton’s 82%-15% margin in 2016.  …

In Wayne County, Michigan, home of Detroit and surrounding communities, Biden beat Trump by an identical 37 percentage points as Clinton. Biden got 68% in Wayne County while Trump received 31%. In 2016, Clinton received 66% to Trump’s 29%. 

But in just the city of Detroit, Trump received 5,000 more votes than four years ago, 12,600 overall, up from 7,700 in 2016. Biden received 1,000 fewer votes than the 234,800 Clinton got in Detroit. …

In Wisconsin, Biden expanded margins the most in the suburbs around Milwaukee and Madison. 

Growth was modest in Milwaukee, where Biden beat Trump by just 3,000 more votes than Clinton did in 2016. …”

Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Detroit did not swing the election to Joe Biden. Trump lost Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the suburbs.

Look at what happened in Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan because Jared Kushner’s Based Blacks failed to show up on election day.

Brookings:

“Michigan’s flip to Biden’s column in 2020 is even more dependent on higher D-R margins among each of the white voting blocs. An especially strong shift in Democratic advantage occurred for white female college graduates, from 6% in 2016 to 20% in 2020. Also, large declines in Republican advantages were evident for white college and noncollege men. Among the latter, the Republican advantage fell from 44% to 30%. Moreover, voters in older age groups flipped from a Republican advantage in 2016 to a Democratic advantage in 2020. Along with the strong Democratic support among Michigan’s Black voters, the shifts in the state’s white voting blocs helped Biden considerably.

Wisconsin, the last of the northern battleground trifecta, also showed the same or increased D-R voting margins for all white voting blocs. This was the case for white noncollege men and women. The former group lowered its Republican advantage from 40% in 2016 to 27% in 2020, while the latter lowered from a Republican advantage of 16% in 2016 to 5% in 2020. White female college graduates registered 2020’s highest Democratic margin, 23%, with white male college graduates shifting from an even Republican-Democratic split in 2016 to a 3% Democratic advantage in 2020. Biden also benefitted from higher Democratic margins among voters age 18 to 29 and 40 to 64, as well as from strong support among the state’s Black population. But as with Pennsylvania and Michigan, a more Democratic-leaning white electorate in this whitest of the three states contributed to his win.

Take Arizona. It is a state that has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1996. While rapidly diversifying, its older white population has leaned heavily toward Republicans. This time was different; white college graduate women and men flipped sharply toward Democrats, from 2016 Republican advantages of 2% and 12%, respectively, to 2020 Democratic advantages of 15% and 3%. Likewise, white noncollege men reduced their Republican support from 28% to 10%. In addition, Arizona’s senior population flipped from Republican support to even Democratic-Republican support. …”

This was a high turnout election.

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Georgia either stayed the same or the electorate whitened over 2016. Woke liberals were fired up and chomping at the bit to take out Orange Hitler while Trump’s base in the middle suburbs was deflated and wasn’t motivated to vote for Blumpf.

Brookings:

“While a large number of smaller suburban counties in the Atlanta metro area voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020, Republican margins shrank in most of them this year. A similar result occurred in the state’s small metropolitan areas. Thus, both urban and suburban Georgia look stronger for Democrats, despite still solid Republican support in nonmetropolitan Georgia, which saw a 40% Trump margin. …

Pennsylvania was a closer win for Biden. Here, he depended heavily on lower Republican margins in suburban and small metro areas than in 2016. This, along with strong support from urban cores, allowed him to overcome continued Trump strength in rural areas. …

In Wisconsin, as with the nation as a whole, Biden’s win relied on his performance in suburban and smaller metropolitan counties. The 2020 election saw lower Republican margins in Milwaukee’s suburban counties—Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington—and gains in counties within Madison’s metropolitan areas. The vast majority of the state’s 46 nonmetropolitan counties voted for Trump in both 2016 and 2020, with his margins in most of them increasing. …”

Trump’s margins evaporated in the suburbs.

It was a “moral victory” though for the multiracial, multiethnic party of the working class which lost the working class. They got 4% more of the black vote somewhere not in the swing states. They doubled their share of the LBGTQ vote. They won 3% more of the Jewish vote. Jared and Brad Parscale spent a billion dollars on a fever dream of dramatically clipping core Democratic voters in the urban cores.

20 Comments

  1. As soon as the “Alt Right” scammers were no longer useful, but in fact a liability, the Zionist Republicans let them get set up in Charlottesville – it was supposed to be the centerpiece of Terry McAuliffe’s campaign, but he screwed it up so Biden used it – and the GOP dropped them.

    They had served their purpose. Now it was time for Candace Owen, Lady MAGA, and Little Pimp – the Future of Conservatism.

  2. Similar to the way the brownshirt/storm troopers were disposed of, after they outlived their usefullness.now that the the power of the state was now in their hands and they had the backing if big business, finance and industry, they moved onto bigger things, like the waffen ss, so that being said, its obvious we played the storm trooper role, but it was a strategic mistake, to assume they could develop something to replace us outside of his own base, we white boys got up off our butts and voted him in, we made all the difference, without us hillary would have beat jeb or marco by about 7 or 8 percentage points and the satanic new world order, would be much further along.so i still hope president trump can get a second term , if for no other reason, but to buy our people more time, if we have a president harris, the satanist will move fast, i would assume they feel like they have a lot of catching up to do. I still believe they hate p trump, because they hate us.

    • “buy our people more time”

      More time to do what, whine on the internet? What should we actually be doing right now that would actually make a difference?

      Start promoting secession!

  3. Hunter you buried your head in the sand before the election saying you were staying out of it which is your right but since the election you have been screaming I told you so like a little boy. Dude you are really smart but sometimes you’re really dumb. Most of the people who visit the OD voted for trump not for maga but to try to stem the tide of anti white cult. Come up with ideas not criticisms. We are in this together even if you want to bench yourself.

  4. Based upon my reading of this long series of posts over the last week or so, I understand that you, Hunter Wallace, are saying that Joe Biden is in fact a pro white populist. He is and has been the man for white men all along.

    Is my understanding correct?

    Can we expect defunding of Progressive causes such as Critical Race Theory? Will transgender issues be laid to rest? Will blacks be cracked down on and incarcerated at higher rates beginning early next year? Will Biden crack down on Big Tech and stop censoring pro white sites? Are these questions going to be answered in the affirmative and this is why white, non liberal men, especially independents, voted for Biden?

    Speaking of independents, are independents in fact WN?

    As I understand your posts, you are NOT arguing the “worse is better” line. Is my understanding correct?

    Also, is it your understanding that a Biden justice department will relax prosecution of pro white activism?

    • @Brutus

      “you, Hunter Wallace, are saying that Joe Biden is in fact a pro white populist. He is and has been the man for white men all along. … Is my understanding correct?”

      No. Where in the world did anyone say that Biden is a pro white populist?

      • But you did want Biden to win? Is this fair to say? And isn’t it fair to say we are to take away from all this analysis that people rejected Trump in favor of Biden?

        Again, I see no indication of a “worse is better” line of reasoning attributed to voters in these writings, so what else is the take away supposed to be other than a rejection of Trump and a vote for Biden? Is this not correct?

      • In your view, BannedHipster, what is the inference supposed to be from, for example, the MAGA Meltdown article, specifically the citing of Biden cracking down on black crime, defense of marriage act, and the citing of Biden helping blue collar workers? All of this in contrast to Trump in relation to white working class men.

        Thus is not a joke or sarcastic series of posts I’m making. I want to know exactly what is going on in people’s minds and their reasoning for desiring a Trump defeat at the hands of Democrats.

        • Re: “what is going on in people’s minds and their reasoning for desiring a Trump defeat at the hands of Democrats”:

          I’m doubtful that the White male voters who might have switched from Trump to the Democrats did so for either “worse is better” or just to see Trump defeated. Maybe they are ones who still feel secure enough that they casually voted for a change for the sake of change, just to see what will happen. A few of the most intelligent may have voted specifically against Trump’s anti-scientific anti-public health “herd immunity” policy. But of course nothing will change, including herd immunity policy under either party as long as the system endures.

          Brutus, I remember reading your good comments here years ago, and the expression “fifty dollar an hour light bulb changers,” which indicates you might be as critical of “free enterprise” as I am.

          • Total Lockdown isn’t science. It’ll just wreck life for younger generations. Please stop inserting this bogus propaganda.

            Science would be to allow this disease to ravage the elderly to euthanise the population of the weak. We just can’t say that. The young should be left to live life.

        • @Brutus

          Obviously I can’t speak for Hunter Wallace but what I got out of it is that Biden didn’t seem that bad to a significantly large number of white men that it cost Trump the election.

          Biden is just another scumbag politician, like Trump, and Biden will say anything he thinks will get him vote. 30 years ago promising to lock up the “superpredators” – hint, hint – got him votes. Pretending he was “lunchbox Joe the blue collar guy” was just as fake as Donald Trump’s professional wrestling shows.

          Joe Biden was called “the Senator from MBNA” which was the bank that scammed poor people with usurious credit card fees. Biden was a shill for bankers – and he’s a warmongering Zionist shill that dodged the draft because he “had asthma” when he was a teenager so he couldn’t serve as an adult…

          But that didn’t stop Bomb ‘Em All Biden, who voted for every single war that he possibly could – dozens – in his long career as a crooked Washington DC scumbag politician.

          I didn’t vote for him.

    • With or without Ziocon Don, white people are on schedule to being permanently enslaved, but some people actually think Zognald is “buying time”, when this hasn’t been the case. A vote for Biden is a vote to throttle MIGAtards out of their false sense of security. Stop investing time and energy in Ziocon Don entirely and invest in guns in the hands of white men.

      • If I saw what I just saw, Fuentes just linked nationalism and Christianity in a pretty direct way. Trouble is brewing.

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