This is what I assume will happen on Tuesday.
A few points:— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 30, 2020
1) Black & Latino turnout wasn’t particularly great in ’16, and even a modest increase vs. ’16 would boost Biden
2) Polling has told us all along that Black/Latino Dems are more skeptical of VBM than white Dems https://t.co/v2pgwwZXbv
In other words, we’ve known all along that Biden’s most promising path to 270 isn’t running up a huge turnout advantage among non-whites so much as winning a higher *share* of whites.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 30, 2020
The biggest obstacle to 270 for Trump remains defections of white women & seniors.
This is the scenario that I discussed with Richard Spencer.
After implementing the 2012 GOP autopsy in his 2020 campaign, Donald Trump greatly improves over his 2016 performance with Hispanics. He marginally improves with the black vote due to criminal justice reform and the Platinum Plan. Joe Biden wins the 2020 election though because the bottom falls out with college educated suburban Whites, disaffected White working class voters, White women and especially White seniors. The “white supremacist” Trump loses Whites while winning minorities!
There is evidence this is happening in a sample of 51K likely voters:
The pre-election CCES is out, the largest and highest quality of the online samples we’ll see with 51K LVs.— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) October 30, 2020
White Non-College: Trump 57, Biden 38
White College: Biden 58, Trump 36
Black: Biden 86, Trump 9
Hispanic: Biden 59, Trump 35https://t.co/arETC0Mhlb
Women: Biden 55, Trump 39— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) October 30, 2020
Men: Trump 48, Biden 47
White College Women: Biden 65, Trump 30
White College Men: Biden 53, Trump 41
White Non-College Women: Trump 54, Biden 40
White Non-College Men: Trump 60, Biden 35
You have to work very hard to find vote switchers among Trump/Clinton '16 voters. 2% of Clinton voters and 6% of Trump voters are switching.— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) October 30, 2020
The real movement is with third party voters & those who didn't vote. pic.twitter.com/379KcOq6oP
Swing to and from Trump from 2016 Post-Election CCES— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) October 30, 2020
White Non-College: Trump +27 to Trump +19 (-8)
White College: Clinton +3 to Biden +22 (-19) (!!!)
Black: Clinton +80 to Biden +77 (+3)
Hispanic: Clinton +35 to Biden +24 (+11) (!!!)
The Jared Kushner theory of the 2020 election was that White voters have “no place else to go.” It looks like they are shifting to Biden or staying home.
Strangely enough, Donald Trump never once appealed to White voters. He focused exclusively on winning African-American, Hispanic-American, Asian-American and LGBT American voters.