I see that Andrew Anglin whose opinions I have long boasted of not sharing has responded to my critique of his debate with Greg Johnson at Unz.com.
There isn’t much of note to respond to in his response. As we saw in his debate with Greg Johnson, Anglin doesn’t know the difference between a coronavirus and an influenza virus, a novel virus which is the result of antigenic shift and a virus going through antigenic drift, a case fatality rate (CFR) and an infection fatality rate (IFR), zoonosis or a basic reproduction number. I’ve never claimed to be an expert, but at least I have made an effort to become familiar with basic terms so that I can try to follow along.
I’ve tried with difficulty to remember a time in my life when over 50,000 people have died in the United States from the flu in April. We had the flu this year and only 24,000 people are estimated to have died from it in the 2019/2020 flu season. These flu estimates are not even real people with confirmed deaths in body bags. They are statistical extrapolations from pneumonia deaths. Confirmed flu deaths normally range from 3,488 to 15,620 in the worst flu season on record. The CDC estimates that 61,000 people died from the flu in the 2017/2018 flu season. Since Andrew Anglin’s debate with Greg Johnson, the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, not estimates, has already surpassed that figure.
As things stand today, there are 1,156,217 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the United States. There are 918,792 active cases. We are only 20.5% of the way through our current confirmed cases. Of our confirmed closed cases (237,425), 72% recovered and 29% ended in death. Globally, 244,105 (18% of cases) out of 1,358,307 closed cases ended in death. The U.S. case fatality rate has risen from 5.67% to 5.87% as American deaths have climbed from 59,266 to 67,255 since Anglin’s debate with Greg Johnson. The death toll climbed north of “just the flu, bro” two days ago.
COVID-19’s death toll is now only in the realm of the three influenza pandemics of the 20th century. 100,000 died in the 1968 influenza pandemic. 116,000 died in the 1957 influenza pandemic. 670,000 Americans died in the Spanish Flu. The current official death toll doesn’t include presumed positive deaths outside of New York City, most deaths in nursing homes, excess deaths above historical norms, deaths at home without a positive test, reported deaths classified as pneumonia, etc. The true death toll is already likely north of 80,000 to 90,000. Only 1 out of 5 cases has resolved in the United States. The MIT model is projecting 168,455 deaths by August without even considering the reopening.
In my review of Anglin’s debate with Greg Johnson, I cleaned up his mess by pointing out that there is a legitimate scientific debate about the IFR of COVID-19. The ordinary flu has an IFR of 0.04% and a CFR of 0.1%. The current debate is over whether the IFR of COVID-19 is similar to the CFR of the ordinary flu which is 0.1% or whether it is significantly higher. Most experts believe that the IFR of COVID-19 is 0.8% to 1% and the R0 is < 2 which is significantly higher than the flu. The CFR of COVID-19 is a moving target as we run through our cases, but it is 12.32% in Sweden which ought to give us pause about reopening. There aren’t any countries reporting a CFR like the flu which is 0.1%.
In order to reach herd immunity and quell the epidemic given the high R0 of COVID-19, which is significantly higher than the flu, it would have to infect around 70% of the population. It would continue infecting even more people due to a phenomena called overshoot. There are 328.2 million Americans. If we assume the IFR of COVID-19 is 0.8% to 1% and no one has immunity to it because it is a novel virus, we would expect it to kill between 1,837,920 and 2,296,000 Americans when herd immunity is reached after it has infected 70% of the population. The epidemic would fade after that point.
There is a comforting fantasy that the IFR isn’t that bad and is closer to the case fatality rate of the flu which is 0.1%. Even if that were the case, it would be 10x as deadly as the flu with a far higher attack rate. The reason why this is highly unlikely to be the case is that the virus has already killed far more people. There are 8.399 million people in New York City. If the virus had an IFR of 0.1% and we assume everyone in the city was infected, it should have only killed 8,399 people. Instead, the recent antibodies study in New York City only found a seroprevelence of 21%. New York state is reporting 24,368 deaths which can’t be explained with a 0.1% IFR. Similarly, Dougherty County, GA is reporting 124 deaths with a population of 94,565. If everyone in the county were infected, the virus would have killed 94 people with an IFR of 0.1%. The virus has already killed more than 0.1% of the population in lots of places around the world.
If we are going to look at antibodies studies, we should look at Bergamo in Lombardy in northern Italy where the two towns that were hit hardest by the virus and where the medical system was famously overwhelmed in March is reporting a seroprevalence level of 61% which is close to the 70% infection rate required to reach herd immunity. New York City’s medical system came close to being overwhelmed in early April, but it appears that only 21% of New Yorkers may have been exposed to the virus. New York City would have to get Bergamo level bad to reach herd immunity. The famous study by John Ioannidis which Anglin didn’t read only found a 2.49% to 4.16% seroprevalence rate in Santa Clara County, CA. Even if we assume there was nothing wrong with the John Ioannidis study, maybe that is why Santa Clara County never got as bad as the 21% in New York City and 61% level of exposure to the virus that was detected in Bergamo. The relative difference in the seroprevalence rates of these antibodies studies which measure exposure to COVID-19 show why the hospitals were not overwhelmed.
As I stated in my review of the original Andrew Anglin vs. Greg Johnson debate, COVID-19 is a disease that is caused solely by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The flu is not a similar disease. It does not have the same symptoms or clinical course. The flu doesn’t typically kill people by causing acute respiratory distress syndrome which is how most people die of COVID-19. It doesn’t hospitalize adults at nearly the same rate. When people who get the flu die of pneumonia, it is usually a secondary bacterial infection, not a highly contagious virus that infects and kills doctors and health care workers. In addition to destroying the air sacs in the lungs by triggering a massive immune response, the flu doesn’t commonly cause deaths by heart attacks and kidney failure. Influenza doesn’t kill T cells. It doesn’t cause nerve damage which is why COVID-19 patients report temporarily losing their sense of taste and smell. COVID-19 is a disease caused by a virus that is genetically far more similar to SARS and MERS both of which jumped to humans from bats. Finally, flu season ended a month ago and the virus is still killing Americans in May like in previous pandemics because this virus acts “like no pathogen humanity has ever seen.”
The Chinese government clearly took the threat seriously and moved with lightning speed to lockdown Wuhan and Hubei province. This is understandable in light of what we now know about the severity of the disease caused by the pathogen and its potential to infect and kill millions of people. 780 million people were locked down in China in order to suppress the epidemic. The Chinese Communist Party didn’t have the same intelligence though that Andrew Anglin has received that the virus was “just the flu.” They just shut down their economy and welded people in their homes to stop the ordinary flu. Apparently, the Trump administration is staffed by people as dumb, callous and credulous as Andrew Anglin, which is why the threat wasn’t taken seriously and why we are all now in this situation.
I agree with Andrew that the gap between conspiracy theorists, truthers and science illiterates and those of us who are following the scientific debate about the IFR of COVID-19 breaks down along lines of intelligence, education, ideology and morals. Andrew Anglin speaks for those who incline toward ignorance, greed, selfishness and cruelty, who are attention whoring in order to attract clicks to their websites and who reject science and medicine in favor of paranoid conspiracy theories. As Andrew himself said in his debate with Greg Johnson (timestap 41:11), he would rather 2.2 million of his fellow citizens die than be inconvenienced by a lockdown. Personally, he has a low chance of dying from COVID-19, which in the final analysis is all that really matters. In his view, the death of the elderly is a blessing anyway.
We come from very different backgrounds. Andrew’s background was always in the “internet truth” community. From 2006 to 2012, he ran two websites called OutlawJournalism.com and RealitySituation.com, which he has carefully scrubbed all traces of from the internet in order to cover up his past as a lunatic who fled to the Philippines to live in the jungle to escape from human civilization because he had come to believe that the Reptilians and the New World Order were a “scientific dictatorship” who were trying to enslave him by implanting a microchip in his brain. At the time, he was reading his mentor David Icke and was posting hundreds of comments on his forum. It appears that after all this time the New World Order is still out to get Andrew Anglin.
The Philippines had another major attraction to Andrew Anglin. It has a reputation for being a magnet for losers from all over the developed world who lack confidence in dealing with women.
Living in the Philippines was an opportunity for Andrew to become a big man and to live off his daddy’s money and donations from gullible internet cranks to have sex with as many doe-eyed Third World tween prostitutes as possible. This is a sensitive subject for Andrew who in addition to his mildly schizophrenic addiction to conspiracy theories (see his literal interpretation of Jayoh’s escape from the United States on the Anarchy Chopper) has major developmental issues with women stemming from the childhood trauma of his father’s failed marriage and being cucked by his high school girlfriend.
Andrew is known for writing 10,000 word essays about the subject, which no one but other incels ever read, in which he passionately defends his hero Harvey Weinstein or fantasizes about lusting after, beating up and raping the Little Mermaid in a post-apocalyptic America. He is an expert on women although in spite of being almost forty years old has never been known to have a steady girlfriend.
I don’t agree with Dr. Andrew “Mountain Dew” Anglin’s diagnosis that the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is a relatively mild flu. We passed a normal flu season about 30,000 deaths ago. As far as I can tell, shit for brains has no expertise in anything as will soon become apparent.
Note: The government should have the power to just vaccinate people who are this dumb.