What the Proponents of ‘Natural’ Herd Immunity Don’t Say

If we assume the IFR of COVID-19 is 1% and herd immunity is reached when 70% of the population is infected, the epidemic will fade when 2,297,400 Americans have died of COVID-19.

New York Times:

“The coronavirus moved so rapidly across the globe partly because no one had prior immunity to it. Failure to check its spread will result in a catastrophic loss of lives. Yet some politiciansepidemiologists and commentators are advising that the most practical course of action is to manage infections while allowing so-called herd immunity to build.

The concept of herd immunity is typically described in the context of a vaccine. When enough people are vaccinated, a pathogen cannot spread easily through the population. If you are infected with measles but everyone you interact with has been vaccinated, transmission will be stopped in its tracks.

Vaccination levels must stay above a threshold that depends upon the transmissibility of the pathogen. We don’t yet know exactly how transmissible the coronavirus is, but say each person infects an average of three others. That would mean nearly two-thirds of the population would need to be immune to confer herd immunity. …

Perhaps most important to understand, the virus doesn’t magically disappear when the herd immunity threshold is reached. That’s not when things stop — it’s only when they start to slow down.”

As Carl Bergstrom explains above though, it won’t stop there. It will just slow down and we will end up somewhere past the original Imperial College estimate because of overshoot.

Congratulations to our political class for your decision to “ride it out” and “think of it as just the flu” in order to avoid “spooking the markets” in February. You are as stupid, evil and incompetent as I have always said you were since 9/11, the Iraq War and the Crash of 2008.

If this forecast is accurate and 2.2 million Americans gradually die from COVID-19 over the next two years until herd immunity achieved, it will be the most devastating loss of life that has ever happened in American history. It will be worse than the Civil War, the Spanish Flu, Iraq and Afghanistan and all the wars of the 20th century combined. It will be an unfathomable national tragedy.

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18 Comments

  1. ” A lotta’ people are gonna’ die, a lotta’ people “…hopefully a lotta’ “people” dusky of hue, and hook-ed of nose. (tossed a Quarter in the jar…)

  2. BTW the Imperial College Projection was only adopted by the UK government because Neil Ferguson claimed in the paper that the Hospitals would be over run and they would collapse in full view of live cameras. The Nudge unit director Halpern, said that would destroy the NHS as a credible institution. So it’s not about the body count its still about the PR images.

  3. If 2 million work units die, we will import 4 million younger, stronger, fitter ones from the third world, that will work harder for less, and in far more difficult conditons than the existing fat, ungrateful work units will. They are more American than Americans are!

    America will come out of this stronger and better, and the ones who die will have died in 10 or 20 years anyway, which is good because we won’t have to support them, so this virus is not a loss for America, its a big gain.

    Can we count on OD’s support this November?

  4. Give me liberty or give me death!

    Unless aids strikes the minds of man.

    Patrick Henry. 1492

  5. In agriculture we begin with virus-free foundation stock for potatoes, strawberries and many other crops, and we begin with healthy livestock and keep them isolated from disease carriers. If this “herd immunity” letting-disease-rip theory were tried in agriculture there would be disaster.

  6. The millions more that recover will be permanently disabled with interstitial lung damage, and other organ damage. They may survive but will not live many years.

    Whenever there is a fever with COVID, and even without fever, there is already serious lung damage occurring.

    • THAT is not being discussed enough.

      Everyone is talking about deaths. But few yet have realized how ruinous the effects of this disease are, even if it is survived.

  7. Herd immunity is the only real answer in the end. What? Do you think our lockdowns are going to cause the viruse to go extinct? Whenever we come out, it’ll be there waiting.

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