JUST IN: The number of Americans seeing crime as an extremely serious problem in the United States is at a more than 20-year high, President Joe Biden is underwater in trust to handle it, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. https://t.co/YL0ShXtflQ— ABC News (@ABC) July 2, 2021
Hey look, even the ABC/Washington Post poll now shows that Joe Biden is struggling on violent crime. In the past, this poll has wildly skewed toward Democrats and might be understating the problem.
“Views of crime in the country as a high-level problem expand to 59% when including those who see it as very serious, not just extremely serious. As typically is the case, far fewer, 17%, see crime as an extremely or very serious problem in the area where they live, though this is at a numerical high — by a single percentage point — compared to Gallup polls since 2000.
This poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, finds a troubling difference in the experience of crime along racial and ethnic lines. While 13% of white people and 17% of Hispanic people call crime an extremely or very serious problem in the area where they live, this jumps to 31% among Black people.
Politically, just 38% of adults overall approve of how Biden is handling the issue of crime in this country, with 48% disapproving. That said, Americans divide almost exactly evenly on which political party they trust more to handle crime — 36% pick the Republicans, 35% the Democrats, about the average difference between the parties on this question in polls going back to 1990. Twenty percent volunteered that they don’t trust either party on crime. …
With an eye toward the 2022 midterm elections, Biden’s party showed potential vulnerability on crime in two hotspots: the Midwest, where the Republican Party leads the Democrats in trust to handle crime, 43-28%; and in the suburbs, a 43 to 31% GOP advantage. Crime, as such, looks set to play a prominent role in the political debate in the months ahead. …”
A few observations:
- In the 2016 election, Trump won Independent voters and held more suburbanites, which is why he won that election
- In the 2018 election, Independents and suburban voters swung toward the Democrats, which is why the Republicans lost the House
- In the 2020 election, Independents and suburban voters swung toward Joe Biden, which is why he won the election
How are these voters feeling about Joe Biden six months into 2021?
“The numbers don’t get any better when it comes to independents. These voters overwhelmingly say they would vote for someone else if they hear a candidate saying they support progressive staples such as defunding the police, socialism, reparations for slavery or abolishing ICE. Majorities of independents in these key locales also would vote against a candidate backing the Green New Deal, Medicare-for-all and a $15 minimum wage. These swing state independents even oppose taking down statues of Confederate generals and enslavers, something that should concern every vulnerable House Democrat who backed Tuesday’s vote to remove statues of Confederate leaders from the Capitol. …
The poll also has bad news for Democrats when it comes to the undecided voters, who will likely determine the outcome of the midterms. Twenty-five percent of independents say they are undecided for the 2022 election, compared with only 4 percent of Democrats and 6 percent of Republicans. These voters backed Biden over Donald Trump by a 44-to-38 margin, with 11 percent going to Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen. They strongly dislike both major parties and Trump, but also hold unfavorable views of Biden and Vice President Harris. Among this group, Biden’s job approval rating is only 45 percent, with 51 percent disapproving of his performance. These voters also overwhelmingly say that the federal government is not working well for them and believe their incomes are falling behind the cost of living. …”
In that Yahoo News/YouGov poll, we saw that violent crime was now ranked as the most salient issue in the country. 55% of Americans said it was a very big problem and crucially 69% of Republicans and 62% of Independents blamed the “racial justice movement” for the spike in violent crime.
Note: Joe’s internal polling on crime was bad enough for him to come out and give a speech on the “gun violence” epidemic last month.