We finally know what happened in the 2020 election.
The Pew Research Center’s long awaited validated voter survey is finally out. Even though exit polls are unreliable, it pretty much confirms our analysis in November and December.
“Biden improved over Clinton among White non-college voters. White voters without a college degree were critical to Trump’s victory in 2016, when he won the group by 64% to 28%. In 2018, Democrats were able to gain some ground with these voters, earning 36% of the White, non-college vote to Republicans’ 61%. In 2020, Biden roughly maintained Democrats’ 2018 share among the group, improving upon Clinton’s 2016 performance by receiving the votes of 33%. But Trump’s share of the vote among this group – who represented 42% of the total electorate this year – was nearly identical to his vote share in 2016 (65%). …
Similarly, as Biden increased his level of support among White men in the 2020 election relative to Clinton’s in 2016, Trump gained among White women, which had the effect of further narrowing the gender gap among White voters. In 2016, Trump won White men by 30 points (62% to 32%). That gap narrowed to a 17-point margin for Trump in 2020 (57% to 40%). White women, a group sometimes categorized as swing voters and who broke nearly evenly in 2016 (47% for Trump to 45% for Clinton), favored him in 2020 (53% to 46%). …”
Donald Trump improved with women and Hispanics. He improved with rural voters, urban voters, conservatives and Republican voters. He stayed flat with blacks and Asians.
Joe Biden won more White working class voters than Hillary Clinton. He won more men. He won more moderate voters. He won slightly more White college graduates. He won the 2020 election in the suburbs. Independents swung toward the Democrats in the 2018 and 2020 elections. In spite of the obsession with blacks, only 2% of Trump voters in 2020 were black as opposed to 1% in 2016.
In the 2020 election, 61% of Biden voters were White and 85% of Trump voters were White. The White vote remains the ballgame. The White Independent vote is the decisive swing vote. Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign which was a joke run by Jared Kushner relentlessly pandered to blacks and neglected the White Indies who had been his base in 2016, but who trended away from him in 2018 and 2020.