I was dialed out of politics in 2020.
From my perspective, the Democrats were running on toppling statues, censorship, Antifa and Black Lives Matter burning down cities, “Abolish ICE,” “Defund the Police,” systematic racism, open borders, trans issues, etc. The White upper middle class progressive wing of the party was losing its mind. I figured that what they were doing was so toxic and divisive that Trump losing really wouldn’t be such a bad thing for us in the long run and might be exactly the medicine that his followers needed.
“Democrats emerged from the 2020 election with full control of the federal government and a pile of lingering questions. In private, party leaders and strategists have been wrestling with a quandary: Why was President Biden’s convincing victory over Donald J. Trump not accompanied by broad Democratic gains down ballot?
With that puzzle in mind, a cluster of Democratic advocacy groups has quietly launched a review of the party’s performance in the 2020 election with an eye toward shaping Democrats’ approach to next year’s midterm campaign, seven people familiar with the effort said. …
There is particular concern among the Democratic sponsors of the initiative about the party’s losses in House districts with large minority populations, including in Florida, Texas and California, people briefed on the initiative said. The review is probing tactical and strategic choices across the map, including Democratic messaging on the economy and the coronavirus pandemic, as well as organizational decisions like eschewing in-person canvassing.
Democrats had anticipated they would be able to expand their majority in the House, pushing into historically red areas of the Sun Belt where Mr. Trump’s unpopularity had destabilized the G.O.P. coalition. Instead, Republicans took 14 Democratic-held House seats, including a dozen that Democrats had captured in an anti-Trump wave election just two years earlier. …”
It was extremely close.
As I had hoped, the True Cons crowd continued going over to the Democrats. The Democratic Party continued its evolution into the party of upper middle class cosmopolitan and modernist elites who live in big metros. Increasingly, all the neoliberals and neocons are concentrated on that side of the aisle. The Democratic Party has become the party of ALL OF THE ELITES.
If you haven’t noticed, the big trend in this country is that the people at the top are getting wealthier and those at the bottom and in the lower middle class are getting much worse off. So, while the Democrats are increasingly focused on the self-actualization and esteem needs of their upper class urban and suburban base (woke, trans, open borders, climate, etc.), there is a growing space for their emerging populist opposition to focus on the belonging, safety and physiological needs of their voters.
Democrats have won a hollow victory. They have the White House, House and Senate. The slim congressional majority, the filibuster and record polarization ensures that their agenda is going nowhere after budget reconciliation is used to pass the COVID relief package. The new Republican wing of the Democratic Party will poison the Democrats from within. Joe has already said that $50,000 in student loan debt relief isn’t happening and that the $15 minimum wage isn’t happening and everything that the Democratic base really wants like universal health care isn’t happening either. “Trans women” in women’s sports is happening though. Raising the refugee cap by 100,000 is happening though.
In the 2022 midterms, the Democrats will lose the House due to redistricting and the volcanic backlash that is brewing among Republicans and due to the deflation of their own base. Then nothing will happen over the next two years except that Neoliberal Joe will go from being a 78-year-old with dementia to an 82-year-old with dementia. The only reason he was elected is because he was Not Trump.
In the long run (four years from now), it will be interesting to see how this works out. The Democratic coalition looks way too top heavy to me. I can imagine it coming tumbling down.