How do you explain this puzzling result?
How did Donald Trump overperform his 2016 coalition with conservatives and Republicans, Jews, Muslims, Mormons, based blacks, Hispanics, LGBTs, women and the upper middle class and end up losing the election by 74 electoral college votes in the swing states in a whiter electorate?
How did Joe Biden mysteriously win the election by winning more White men, Independents, Moderates and working class voters? Why did the line break for Trump with White male Indies in the middle suburbs? Did anyone expect this to happen in the punditry before the 2020 election? The answer is no.
It was common knowledge in the mainstream punditry that the Orange Hitler was a racist, a fascist and the avatar of white supremacy. He had “energized” White Nationalists. No one reported that there had been a sea change in this swath of the electorate since the 2016 election. The argument for Blumpf 2020 in our circles was entirely a “lesser of two evils” argument. Even those who voted for him a second time did so reluctantly in spite of being deeply disappointed with the Trump presidency. No one in our circles voted “for” him this time. They voted “against” Biden. The energy level and unanimity was nowhere close to 2016. The opposite was true on the Right. There was more energy for Trump in 2020.
Donald Trump didn’t lose the 2020 election on the Right. He consolidated and energized the Right. He added a tiny proportion of highly prized LGBTs, Hispanics and based blacks to his coalition. He lost the election in the Center with White men who are Independents and more moderate on economics. This is how he went from losing Maine by 3 and New Hampshire by 0.5 to losing Maine by 10 and losing New Hampshire by 7. Trump lost the appeal that he had in 2016 with non-conservative White men.
What is the more likely explanation for this turn of events? Did Sleepy Joe have a rockstar appeal with this demo that no one had ever noticed before? If so, why did he perform so poorly in Iowa and New Hampshire in primary season? Why was he carried liked a corpse over the finish line by the Dem establishment? Alternatively, did Donald Trump’s support with White male Indies erode since the 2016 election and was this an underreported story? Did Donald Trump lose the magic he had in 2016 on his left flank? Why was Donald Trump elected president in the first place in 2016?
My theory is that Donald Trump 1.) electrified the Far Right vote in 2016, 2.) brought the Far Right into the Republican Party and 3.) the Far Right vote is concentrated in the Center of the electorate among White male Indies who make less than $100,000 a year – Pew’s “Hard-Pressed Skeptics.” The proof of this is that all the political attitudes that we typically associate with the Far Right are found in the Center of the electorate. The disaffected people who really want a strong leader who is going to deport immigrants and crush Wall Street and who are cynical about politics are in the middle stratum of America.
Here are the demographics of the Alt-Right.
The ethnocentric White vote is disproportionately downscale:
Here are the demographics of race conscious White Americans.
This is 15% of the White population. It might even be 30% of the White population now. It was strongly associated with the “for” vote for Donald Trump in the 2016 election.
Come on, man.
We know what happened here.
We know where the 5% came from in 2016. Indies stormed the GOP.
“Newly released data from the American National Election Study’s 2016 Pilot Study show that both white racial identity and beliefs that whites are treated unfairly are powerful predictors of support for Donald Trump in the Republican primaries …
These graphs show that white independents and Republicans who think their identity as whites is extremely important are more than 30 points more likely to support Trump than those who think their racial identity is not important. …
Likewise, white Americans who perceive a great deal of discrimination against their race are almost 40 points more likely to support Trump than those who don’t think whites face any discrimination.
And whites who think it’s extremely likely that “many whites are unable to find a job because employers are hiring minorities instead” are over 50 points more likely to support Trump than those who think it’s unlikely that many whites are losing jobs to minorities. …”
This is where “Trumpism” came from:
#1. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are much more conservative than the public on homosexuality than Democrats or Dem leaning Indies. They are far more likely than Democrats or Dem leaning Indies to agree than government is almost always wasteful and inefficient. And yet, they are more likely to say that government should help the needy with things like, say, I don’t know … a second stimulus check?
#2. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are more socially conservative on abortion and homosexuality, but do not think the GOP cares about the middle class.
#3. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are populists: social conservatives who are moderates on economics.
#4. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are populists who have an equal number of conservative and liberal positions. They have the most negative view of immigrants of any swath of the electorate.
#5. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are Independents who lean Democrat. They were weakly attached to the GOP before Trump came along.
#6. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are deeply skeptical of free-market economics.
#7. The Hard-Pressed Skeptics were the swing voters who agreed with Trump that America was in decline
#8. The Hard-Pressed Skeptics agree with the Right on trusting the government
#9. The Hard-Pressed Skeptics agreed with Trump in 2016 when he railed about the rigged economic system and bloodsucking globalist parasites.
#10. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are immigration hawks by A LOT.
#11. Hard-Pressed Skeptics believe blacks are responsible for their own failures.
#12. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are far more religious than Business Conservatives.
#13. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are overwhelmingly isolationists while Business Conservatives are overwhelmingly globalists
#14. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are deeply opposed to American intervention in foreign countries.
#15. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are White men and women who make under $100,000 a year and live in the middle suburbs.
#16. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are deeply skeptical of Wall Street which explains why Bernie occasionally resonated with them
#17. Hard-Pressed Skeptics are why Trump won the 2016 election and lost the 2020 election by getting out of sync with the Far Center
Here’s my POV:
I’m not with these people: