I’m increasingly convinced of this.
Ethnocentric Whites are politically and culturally divided and the infighting in the “Dissident Right” reflects these divisions. Some people are not conservative Republicans. They are not even on the Right. They are moderates, populists and Independents in the Center of the electorate.
Look at this swath of pro-White Indies and Democrats:
Independents score higher than Republicans on feelings of White identity, solidarity and feelings of anti-White discrimination. The poorest Whites have the most intense feelings of White identity followed by the working class, the middle class and the upper middle class.
Ethnocentric Whites are traditional non-voters. The 2016 election was a fluke. Blumpf motivated ethnocentric White voters who are moderates, populists and Independents to come off the sidelines and vote for him in 2016. They abandoned him in 2020 because he took them for granted and governed as a conservative Republican and pandered to everyone else in society but them.
“More in Common calls this tribe the “Politically Disengaged,” a group comprising 26 percent of Americans, who are almost invisible in local politics and community life. As a group, they’re much poorer and less educated than the average American and much more likely to say that “being white” is important to being an American—20 percent, rather than 11 percent—to say people of other religions are morally inferior and to say that a “strong leader willing to break the rules” is needed to fix America, 57 percent to 45. They are much more eclectic of a group than More in Common’s other “tribes,” like Progressive Activists and Devoted Conservatives. …”
Pew labeled this Democratic-leaning demographic “Hard Pressed Skeptics.” A third of them lean Republican. 17% are Republicans. 41% are Independents. These were the people in the Rust Belt who had negative view of Obama in his second term and flipped to Trump.
“The true swing voters are what Pew dubbed the young outsiders and the hard-pressed skeptics.
“Both groups have weak partisan leanings,” Pew said. “Whether many will show up at the polls is an open question.”
The other wild card, the hard-pressed skeptics, seem to be more of an opportunity for Democrats. They are the most financially strapped group and voted 65 percent to 25 percent for President Barack Obama in 2012.
They’ve since cooled on Obama, as only 44 percent now approve of the job he’s doing. Forty percent approve of the Affordable Care Act. They lean Democratic because “even though they take a dim view of government performance,” Pew said, “66 percent . . . say the government should do more for the needy even if it means adding to the debt.”
This group swung from Obama to Trump to Biden. They cooled on Obama. They cooled on Trump. Fash the Nation talked about Trump’s collapse in the Rust Belt for much of 2020.
“The Politically Disengaged group most resembles Passive Liberals in having lower levels of income and education and being less engaged in following current affairs. Fully 41 percent are making less than $30,000 per year, and approximately one in four have gone without food or medical treatment at least somewhat often in the past year. They diverge from Passive Liberals in being more anxious about external threats and less open in their attitudes towards differences. For instance, they are the most likely to say that being white is necessary to be American and that people who hold other religious views are morally inferior. They are more concerned about the threat of terrorism and are quite closed to the view that Islamic and American values are compatible. They are practically invisible in local politics and community life, being one of the least likely groups to participate in political rallies or vote in local elections. They are the least well-informed group on all measures of political knowledge. They are also the most pessimistic about the possibility of reconciling differences between the factions. Overall, this makes the Politically Disengaged a challenging segment to persuade.
Of the 26% of Americans who are Politically Disengaged, ethnocentric Whites are overrepresented in this stratum of the population. Most ethnocentric Whites are extremely cynical about politics, mainstream conservatism and the Republican Party. They are not rock ribbed Republicans!
Compared to the average American:
- Eight percent more likely to say that, to fix America, we need a strong leader willing to break the rules (56 percent v. 48 percent)
- Nine percent more likely to believe the “differences between Americans are too big for us to work together” (32 percent v. 23 percent)
- Nine percent more likely to say that “being white” is important to being American (20 percent v. 11 percent)
- Nine percent less likely to make over $20,000 a year (74 percent v. 83 percent)
- More than twice as likely not to be involved in any community activity (78 percent v. 34 percent)
- Much less likely to share political content on social media (5 percent v. 26 percent)
- Much less likely to be registered to vote (52 percent v. 72 percent)
- Ten percent more likely to be black or Hispanic (34 percent v. 24 percent)
- Six percent more likely to be aged 30 to 44 (31 percent v. 25 percent)
- Sixteen percent more likely to have no college education (53 percent v. 37 percent)
Joe Biden brought traditional non-voters and new voters from other groups into his coalition, but Donald Trump alienated the traditional non-voters who joined his coalition in 2016. Hence, the swing of moderates and Independents that decisively cost him the election in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt.
The AmNats never understood their constituency. Andrew Anglin and Nick Fuentes are both conservative Republicans. They are both from upper middle class suburbs of Columbus and Chicago. The typical White Nationalist or “pro-White voter” or “racist non-voter,” whatever you want to call these people, however, is most definitely not an upper middle class conservative Republican. The so-called wignats are far more in touch with these people and where they are going and saw Blumpf losing the election.
To be crystal clear, the wignats did not cost Trump the 2020 election. There aren’t enough wignats in the country to have done this alone. They don’t have a large audience. Instead, the argument is that wignats are traditional non-voters, tend to be far more moderate and populist on economics and far more likely to be Independents than Republicans. They are in the middle of the electorate on the fringe of the Republican Party and hence much closer to the fault line where elections are decided.
The fact that wignats were so disillusioned and hostile to Trump telegraphed what was coming. The typical White Nationalist isn’t a little brat living in an upper middle class suburb trying to get into CPAC or infiltrate the College Republicans. The election was breaking against Trump with moderates and Independents. The Right can only win elections with these people in the Center.
What changed between 2016 and 2020? The Alt-Right was dumped immediately after the 2016 election. Jared Kushner took over the White House as de facto Chief of Staff. Charlie Kirk became the face of Trumpism and the result was that Trump lost the White voters he needed to get to 270. These people are the “Hard Pressed Skeptics” based in the Rust Belt. They went for The Other Biden.
The “far right” is in the middle. If your campaign message and strategy isn’t resonating in the middle with Independents, you’re losing. Trump needed those people to show up to offset all the based blacks and shitlibs in college towns and he didn’t get it because he didn’t do anything for them. He spent four years delivering Ws for Sheldon Adelson to get 3% of the Jewish vote with Jedoxus.