The IHME Model Is Too Optimistic

The media is picking up on this now.

Politico:

“As coronavirus cases climbed daily by the thousands and the nation entered its second month of an economic standstill, President Donald Trump latched onto a sign of hope: A pandemic model closely followed by political leaders and public health specialists projected the virus would kill as few as 60,000 Americans, a figure far below what officials previously feared.

The new April forecast signaled the worst would soon be over, with some states effectively ending their bout with coronavirus as early as the end of the month. According to the model’s bell-shaped curves, hospitalizations and deaths nationwide were set to drop off nearly as quickly as they rose.

Trump swiftly adopted the projection from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation as his newest measure of success — while top administration health officials including infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci and coronavirus response coordinator Deborah Birx touted the lower figure as a clear indication the U.S. was winning its fight with the disease. …”

Washington Post:

“As time passed, the models were revised with new information. One leading model used by the White House, created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, used new information about distancing measures in Europe and the United States to shift its downward estimate for the death toll from 90,000 to a little over 60,000.

Trump relished the change.With 60,000 deaths, “you can never be happy,” Trump said at a briefing on April 10, shortly after the model revision. “But that’s a lot fewer than we were originally told and thinking. So they said between [100,000] and 220,000 lives on the minimum side, and then up to 2.2 million lives if we didn’t do anything. But it showed a just tremendous resolve by the people of this country. So we’ll see what it ends up being, but it looks like we’re headed to a number substantially below the 100,000. That would be the low mark. And I hope that bears out.”

I’m sure the flu truthers will be back again to accuse me of echoing the mainstream media. I was ahead of the media though in noticing that the death rate wasn’t declining fast enough to end in 61,000 deaths by August. The number of confirmed active cases has also grown from 631,623 to 742,889 to 762,421 with 52,185 deaths.

About Hunter Wallace 9678 Articles
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14 Comments

  1. MN is lifting the stay-at-home order on May 5. Other states will be following suit. Get ready to go back to indulging your soulless selves to your pointless, valueless content, you consumerist bloodsuckers and psychokillers!

  2. #NewDay2020 Can’t wait till this obscene panic is over. It will be seen by historians as an over-reaction, mass hysteria, and an example of social engineering. Now that the death rates are coming out as around 0.14%, and the infection rate far higher, we will see this as nothing more than a bad flu season. People talk about consumerism, I talk about my brothers lost job. I worry about my life saving medicine, my food. I am not worried about Corona, I’ve always been anti-open border. If my policies were enacted we would be out and about, not worrying about flattening the jobless curve, but the virus would be left in China, or any other nation that got high rates as a result of not closing borders to China. It’s time to end the mindless panic, and stop listening to Gill Bates funded losers like Fauci, who wrote to the entire Medical professional world in the New England Journal of Medicine on the 29th of February that Corona was as lethal or less than the flu. Meanwhile what will they do to us using this as an excuse? ID2020, Mandatory Vaccines that don’t work, patented medicines from Israel or Dr. Baric who used to hunt bats in Wuhan with Dr. Shengli? These people should be in jail for doing gain of function studies, instead we are talking about Bat Soup and locking down for 18 months while people are literally starving. Eurostat numbers show less aprox the same fatality rates this year as opposed to the last few. If we do proper modeling we will see this is a classical social engineering panic, Gill Bates sterilants and money making patents await your out streteched arm in the mean time.

    • No, it won’t.

      52,000 people have died in a month. How is that like the flu? 147 people normally die every day from the flu, not 2,000. In what flu season on record have 52,000 people ever died in a month? To my knowledge, that has never happened before in modern times.

      Nothing more than a bad flu season? The coronavirus death toll has already surpassed all recent “bad flu seasons” except the 2017/2018 flu season, which was an estimate that encompassed an entire year, and it is only days away from doing that.

      • Blood samples collected from about 3,000 people indicated that nearly 14% had developed antibodies to fight a coronavirus infection, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said at his daily news briefing.

        In New York City, the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S., 21% of the people tested had antibodies.

        So it turns out I am correct in my assertion, because the no 1. panic promoter just admitted it. 2.73 million are infected in New York which makes the death rate 0.019%. It’s over Hunter, please. Mind you this is the worst affected area in the world…

        Where I live it’s even lower with 98 dead in the entire Province, mind that is with the stat padding they do calling almost all deaths Corona related. Now US hospitals are laying off staff, and to still talk Corona panic and pro-lockdown measures is just plain ridiculous on the face of it. Keep the borders closed for now, that’s about it. You don’t have to commit economic suicide on top of it.

        https://apnews.com/01e148acd7226332d14e9ce350d8de16

      • Opps, I did my math wrong. 52K dead is the US mortality, NY State is 21k, so the death rate is 0.0077%. It’s over bro.

      • Hunter, do you think at some point the virus “cure” of “social distancing” becomes worse than the virus itself? Should it go on indefinitely if the “experts” so recommend? Is, in my opinion, a pyrrhic victory in the end costing millions of lives economically and financially destroyed worth it?

  3. Hunter your publication is not only one of my favourite sources of news and information but also a great laugh. There comes a point where the most effective form of truth telling is ridicule, and you’ve put your finger on the pulse remarkably. Aside from Protestantism I seem to align with you on every issue time and again, especially during these interesting times. God bless you and your family, and your work.

  4. I’ve had respiratory problems since I was a child, so even if this were “just a flu” it’d still be a problem for me. However, it looks like we’re at a crossroads where Whites who want to work and do useful labor will either
    a) starve or
    b) go back to work and risk getting COVID
    I think ZOG is going to have to deploy the national guard if they expect to keep people indoors much longer.

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