In Coronavirus Deaths, I noted that the first 107,000 cases had an outcome. At the time, there were 739,932 cases and 39,015 deaths. There were 107,300 closed cases and 631,623 active cases. Of those 107,300 closed cases, there were 68,285 recoveries (64%) and 39,015 deaths (36%). In that post, which was only four days ago, I asked how will the remaining 5/6ths of current active cases resolve?
Four days later, we are at 877,672 cases and 49,736 deaths. There are 134,783 closed cases. Of those 134,783 closed cases, there were 85,047 recoveries (63%) and 49,736 deaths (37%). Over 10,000 more people have died and there has been no change in the recovery rate. There are now 742,889 active cases. We have added 100,000 new cases. How will the remaining 6/7ths of current active cases resolve?
The death rate in Italy is still 31% a month after it has passed its peak. Are these 742,889 active cases going to clear up soon? Is there going to be a massive change in the death rate here? Unless there is a massive and imminent turnaround, we’re going to surpass 61,000 deaths very shortly. The back side of the curve looks less like a peak than a gentle plateau.