Post-MLK-assasination race riots reduced Democratic vote share in surrounding counties by 2%, which was enough to tip the 1968 election to Nixon. Non-violent protests *increase* Dem vote, mainly by encouraging warm elite discourse and media coverage. https://t.co/S8VZSuaz3G. pic.twitter.com/VRUwnRFuVW— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) May 28, 2020
There are some interesting numbers in this new Ipsos poll:
“Only one in three Americans (35%) agree that the 2020 racial justice protests had a positive impact on society. A quarter (24%) have no opinion and two in five (40%) disagree with the statement. …
Only about a quarter (27%) of Americans support the “defund the police” movement with white Democrats (50%) being the most supportive. …
On the impact of the 2020 protests, fewer than one in ten (8%) white Republicans believe the 2020 protests were positive. Compare that to three in five (60%) white Democrats, over half (52%) Black Americans, and just over a third (38%) of Hispanic Americans. …
However, a clear majority of Americans (61%) also support increasing funding of the police. …”
Look at these numbers on the George Floyd protests last summer:
- 35% of Americans believe the protests had a positive impact
- 8% of White Republicans believe the protests had a positive impact
- 52% of blacks believe the protests had a positive impact
- 38% of Hispanics believe the protests had a positive impact
Progressive activists are the most likely group to believe the George Floyd protests had a positive impact. White Democrats are divided on the issue, but have a more positive view of the protests than non-Whites. 61% of Americans want to increase funding of the police. 27% of Americans support “Defund the Police.” The George Floyd protests unified the Right and helped Trump and divided Democrats.
A year ago, David Shor was cancelled for warning that violent protests would backfire:
It is pretty clear that White and “Latinx” voters were turned off by the George Floyd riots and have turned against Black Lives Matter.
“By the numbers: Four out of 10 Hispanic respondents ranked the novel coronavirus as the topic they found most worrisome. Only 23% of whites felt the same.
Around 32% of Hispanics said they were more worried about crime or gun violence compared to 28% of white and 43% of Black Americans.
Nearly three out of 10 Hispanics polled ranked racial injustice and discrimination as their top concern compared to 59% of Black Americans. Barely 17% of their white neighbors felt the same.
About 52% of Hispanics believe that race relations have slightly or significantly worsened since the death of Floyd. Around 62% of Black Americans felt the same compared to 48% of whites.
The intrigue: Just 21% of Hispanic respondents listed immigration as their top concern — tied with climate change for the fifth spot.
The poll mirrors other surveys that found Latinos consistently placing immigration fourth or fifth behind issues like the economy, education, and health care, despite consistent national media coverage of Hispanics centered on immigration. …”
White voters are more concerned about political extremism.
Hispanic voters are more concerned about unemployment and education.
Black voters are far more concerned about racial injustice and discrimination.
White progressives and blacks are far most invested in the systematic racism narrative.
Note: Last September, we covered a poll that showed most Americans disapproved of the George Floyd protests.