STOCK MARKET REACHES NEW ALL-TIME HIGH!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 4, 2020
Circled is where libertarians/DC Republicans are… in the 5% pic.twitter.com/bhqrjIDdUn— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) December 4, 2020
This graph fascinates me. It’s a visual display of the economic and social leanings of the 2016 electorate. Establishment conservatives think the circled area is the key to winning elections. pic.twitter.com/F3KgRLs9On— President-Elect Tony Hrvatska ??? (@tonybalogna) November 9, 2019
Do you remember this map?
- Liberal (44.6 percent): Lower left, liberal on both economic and identity issues
- Populist (28.9 percent): Upper left, liberal on economic issues, conservative on identity issues
- Conservative (22.7 percent): Upper right, conservative on both economic and identity issues
- Libertarian (3.8 percent): Lower right, conservative on economics, liberal on identity issues
I’ve been writing about it my from perspective:
My take here at Occidental Dissent for the past four years has been to bitterly complain that Donald Trump was moving away from populism and nationalism and reverting to mainstream conservatism. He was moving away from the Center and back toward the Right on economics.
After Donald Trump lost the 2020 election, I began analyzing the exit polls. My take on the election has been that Trump lost a significant number of White Independent voters who are Moderates who make less than $100,000 a year. He was losing voters in the Populist quadrant and trying to replace them by activating more Conservatives, Republicans, Hispanics and White working class voters.
This is what that looked like in the 2020 election:
- Liberal (46 percent): Lower left, liberal on both economic and identity issues
- Populist (17 percent): Upper left, liberal on economic issues, conservative on identity issues
- Conservative (32 percent): Upper right, conservative on both economic and identity issues
- Libertarian (5 percent): Lower right, conservative on economics, liberal on identity issues
In the 2016 election, the Populist quadrant was 28.9% of the electorate and Trump won 65% of voters in it. In the 2020 election, the Populist quadrant shrank to 17% of the electorate and Trump won it by 47 points. The Populist quadrant declined in relative importance along with Trump’s margin in it.
In the 2016 election, the Conservative quadrant was 22.7% of the electorate and Trump won 90.2% of voters in it. In the 2020 election, the Conservative quadrant expanded to 32% of the electorate and Trump won the same 90% of voters in it. The Conservative quadrant grew in relative importance along with Trump’s margin in it. In 2016, Trump’s populists were 18.95% of the electorate and Trump’s conservatives were 20.4% of the electorate. He won the 2016 election with a populist-conservative coalition. He clearly lost the 2020 election with a conservative coalition.
In the 2016 election, the Progressive quadrant was 44.6% of the electorate and Hillary won 83.4% of progressives. In the 2020 election, the Progressive quadrant grew slightly to 46% of the electorate and Joe Biden won 86% of voters in it. Joe Biden performed marginally better with Progressives.
In the 2016 election, the Libertarian quadrant was 3.8% of the electorate, which was split three ways between Gary Johnson who won 1.11%, Trump who won 1.16% and Hillary who won 1.04%. In the 2020 election, the Libertarian quadrant was 5% of the electorate and Joe Biden won it by 23 points.
As for the Biden-Republican ticket splitters (people who voted for Joe Biden and Republicans downballot), COVID-19 was cited as the decisive issue in causing them to switch their votes.
UPDATE: In the 2016 election, 15% of Hillary Clinton supporters were anti-immigration populists. Seems like a missed opportunity for Trump.
“As we might expect, almost all the anti-immigration Clinton supporters are in the populist quadrant, torn between their economic liberalism and identity conservatism. Presumably, they will continue to be torn, and much may depend on how they break. …
Among the strongly anti-immigrant Clinton supporters, 48.4 percent said immigration was “very important” and 36.7 percent said it was “somewhat important.” Among the strongly pro-immigration Trump supporters, 31.5 percent said it was “very important” while 50.2 percent said it was “somewhat important.” Among all voters, 46.1 percent said immigration was very important, and 37.5 percent said it was somewhat important.
In general, strongly anti-immigration Clinton supporters tend to be less educated (38 percent of them only had a high school education, while only 25 percent had a bachelor’s degree or more), while pro-immigration Trump supporters were better educated (43 percent had a bachelor’s degree or more, only 26 percent had a high school education or less). …
Strongly anti-immigration Clinton supporters were 74 percent white (higher than the overall percentage among Clinton supporters), while strongly pro-immigration Trump supporters were 80 percent white (lower than the overall percentage among Trump supporters).
Among anti-immigration Clinton voters, 39 percent reported supporting Clinton in the primary, as compared to 17 percent saying they supported Sanders. Among pro-immigration Trump voters, 25 percent said they supported him in the primary, as compared to 13 percent for Cruz and 12 percent for Kasich.”