This is why Donald Trump was elected president in 2016.
- Liberal (44.6 percent): Lower left, liberal on both economic and identity issues
- Populist (28.9 percent): Upper left, liberal on economic issues, conservative on identity issues
- Conservative (22.7 percent): Upper right, conservative on both economic and identity issues
- Libertarian (3.8 percent): Lower right, conservative on economics, liberal on identity issues
Donald Trump was able to come over into the Populist quadrant (28.9% of the 2016 electorate) and win over 65% of the vote. It enabled him to do magical things like win the Rust Belt. Evidently, he won even more conservatives and Republicans in 2020, but failed to replicate his success in the Center with White Moderate and Independent voters making under $100,000 a year.
Who were these voters?
We’re not dumb here. It was the Alt-Right/American Preservationists/Hard-Pressed Skeptics and the Alt-Lite/Anti-Elites/Young Outsiders/New Era Enterprisers. It is the two different types of right-leaning moderates which have always been found in the Pew typologies for over twenty years now.
Staunch Conservatives and Free Marketeers are the Right.
In the latest Pew typology, these two distinct groups are the “Country First Conservatives” and “Core Conservatives” respectively. In the previous Pew typology in 2014, they were labeled the “Steadfast Conservatives” and “Business Conservatives.” These two groups anchor the GOP.
There is some common ground between the two groups. Both groups had the same perception of not being represented by the government and voted for Trump in 2016.
White racial identity is TWICE as salient though for American Preservationists.
Cultural libertarianism is the defining quality of the Alt-Lite:
The GOP has a class problem and a populist problem. Democrats tend to support the same economic policies regardless of class. Republicans do not.
“By contrast there was a substantial Republican class divide on economic issues, with lower-income Republicans (those with family incomes under $40,000 per year) reporting more progressive views than higher-income Republicans (those with family incomes over $80,000per year).(2) The majority of lower-income Republicans supported paid leave for parents and tax credits for lower-income workers. A clear plurality supported breaking up big banks (39 percent vs. 23 percent). Lower-income Republicans were about evenly split on higher taxes for families making over $200,000 (45 percent support vs. 44 percent oppose), and raising the minimum wage (41 percent support vs. 35 percent oppose). Making it easier to unionize and reducing inequality were the only policies that received little support from lower-income Republicans.
Higher-income Republicans were much more skeptical of progressive economic policies. Less than a quarter of Republicans with family incomes over $80,000 per year supported raising the minimum wage or increasing taxes on families with incomes over $200,000. The most popular progressive policy among higher-income Republicans, tax credits for low-income workers, was only supported by half of these respondents.
The Republican class divide was largest when it came to taxing families with incomes over $200,000; lower-income Republicans were 22 percentage points more likely to say they should pay more in taxes than higher-income Republicans (45 percent vs. 23 percent). Among Democrats, the class divide on taxing these families was only four percentage points — with higher-income Democrats more likely to support raising their taxes (83 percent vs. 79 percent). …
Republicans were more diverse in their economic views and that diversity correlated with income. Higher-income Republicans were, on average, more economically conservative than lower-income Republicans. About 19 percent of Republicans held economic policy positions closer to the average Democrat than the average Republican, placing them on the “economic left.” By contrast, just 9 percent of Democrats held economic positions closer to the average Republican, placing them on the “economic right.” …
Partisanship is a powerful force, but the votes of Democrats and Republicans outside of their party’s economic mainstream are more likely to be up for grabs ahead of the 2020 presidential election. Since one in five Republicans hold economic policy preferences closer to the average Democrat, while one in 10 Democrats hold economic policy preferences close to the average Republican, economic policies have the potential to play a pivotal role in the 2020 election.”
1 out of every 5 Republicans is more of a Democrat on economics.
Independents are far more moderate on economics.
The GOP chose to give these people nothing on race or populism.
The policy and strategy was let them eat tweets, corporate tax cuts and the Platinum Plan:
There are two different types of populists.
There is the type that is satisfied with zaniness, conspiracy theories, owning the libs, token gestures, tweets and Trump’s personality cult. The other type is only interested in policy concessions. The latter group moved toward Trump because he seemed to offer them something in the 2016 election. In the 2018 and 2020 elections, they swung away from the GOP which lost the House and White House.