Opposing Forces

This is fascinating.

By 2019, it was already clear that Trump was losing the Hard-Pressed Skeptics whose shift toward the GOP won him the presidency in the 2016 election.

Voter Study Group:

“About a quarter of the electorate are “cross pressured” on economics and immigration — aligning with Democrats on one issue and Republicans on the other. The number of Americans who are liberal on economics but conservative on immigration is much larger than the number of Americans who are conservative on economics and liberal on immigration.

Since the 2016 presidential election, Trump has lost support among both economically liberal/anti-immigration Americans and economically conservative/pro-immigration Americans. However, he may yet gain it back; these cross-pressured Americans are more likely to be undecided ahead of the 2020 presidential election. …”

Do you remember this famous map from the Voter Study Group?

Look at this map from 2019.

It shows the relative position of Democrats, Republicans and Independents on immigration and economic issues. Independents are to the Right of the Democrats and Left of the Republicans.

The political battlefield is the 25% of the electorate that is socially conservative and economically populist. Republicans have to win decisively with Independents in this quadrant. In the 2016 election, Trump carried Indies and won 65% of the voters in the Populist quadrant with his MAGA agenda.

“About half (49 percent) of the electorate is consistently to the left on both dimensions (economics and immigration), while a quarter (25 percent) are consistently to the right on both dimensions. That leaves just over a quarter of the electorate as cross pressured: those that either lean left on economics and right on immigration (19 percent), or those that lean right on economics and left on immigration (8 percent).(4)” 

… Compared to Trump’s performance in the 2016 presidential race, Republican candidates for Congress did worse in the 2018 midterms. To the extent that these different electoral results were driven by shifts in how Americans voted, those shifts were not evenly distributed across these economic and immigration attitudes. The second panel of Figure 4 shows the change in the percentage of voters in each cell who supported Trump in 2016, and the percentage who voted for a Republican for Congress in 2018. Blue cells reflect a shift towards Democrats; the darker the blue, the greater the shift. Red cells reflect a shift to Republicans; the darker the red, the greater the shift. White cells represent no change.”

In the 2018 midterms, conservative Republicans who were alienated by Trump shifted back toward the GOP while Trump’s voters didn’t turn out for the GOP. The Democrats won the House and Trump was impeached because those voters didn’t show up in 2018.

“The biggest shifts generally were among cross-pressured voters. The largest shift away from Republicans and towards Democrats was among voters who were left on economics and right on immigration. By contrast, the largest shift towards Republicans were among voters who were left on immigration and right on economics. Those Americans in the lower-left 2×2 region and upper-right 2×2 region didn’t change their minds very much. Taken together, these patterns may suggest that pocketbook issues played a more important role in voter choice in 2018 than in 2016.

Things appear worse for Republicans as we look towards 2020. The 2019 VOTER Survey asked respondents to choose between Trump and a generic Democrat. Overall, the generic Democrat outpolls Trump 48 percent to 36 percent, with 11 percent undecided and 5 percent saying they would not vote. The first panel of Figure 5 shows the difference between the percentage of Americans who supported Trump in 2016 and the percentage who say they will definitely support Trump again in 2020. Again, blue reflects a shift towards a generic Democrat while red reflects a shift towards Trump relative to how these groups voted in 2016.”

Trump was in big trouble in the Center in 2019.

Of course, this was always reflected in his dismal approval rating:

“This matrix is almost entirely in shades of blue, which does not bode well for Trump. He is struggling among both groups of cross-pressured Americans and is only holding his support among fairly consistent conservatives. However, as the first panel of Figure 3 showed, the 3×3 region in the upper-right represents only about a quarter of Americans. …”

As this report in August 2018 makes clear, Populists who had voted for Trump were not on board with the GOP in the 2018 midterms.

Voter Survey Group:

“Lee Drutman’s method of analyzing the electorate shows Republican weakness is especially concentrated among the two groups whose views on issues place them between hardcore Republicans and Democrats. People who hold mainly liberal views on economic and on identity questions comprise about 41 percent of all American voters according to Drutman’s 2017 report, and they back Democrats for Congress this year by an 81 to 4 margin. People, who hold conservative views on both sets of issues, comprise only about a quarter of all American voters, but they give Republicans a similarly lopsided 84 to 2 advantage on this year’s generic ballot. Ten percent of all voters are Libertarians (conservative on economics and liberal on identity issues), and while they supported Trump by a 35 to 31 margin in 2016, they currently give Democrats a 35 to 32 edge in the generic ballot.

The most important group in Drutman’s analysis, Populists, are the reason Democrats have a large lead in this year’s Congressional races. Populists, about 29 percent of all voters, hold liberal views on economic measures but conservative ones on identity questions. Over 65 percent voted for Trump in 2016, but this group currently gives Republicans only 49 percent of their support for Congress. Their support for Democratic congressional candidates, 24 percent, is nearly identical to the support they gave to Hillary Clinton (21 percent). The 27 percent who are not currently backing either party’s candidates were nearly all Trump voters just eighteen months ago. Which party these voters back — or whether they will vote at all — will be crucial to determining the outcome this fall, especially in the hot Senate races. …”

This is what happened in the 2018 midterms:

The Obama-Trump voters began cooling on Trump while the Romney-Other voters started warming to Trump:

Voter Study Group:

“Only Obama-Trump voters have had a significant change in their view of President Trump over the last two years. In the 2016 VOTER Survey, more than 8 in 10 (85 percent) Obama-Trump voters held a “favorable” view of the president — 19 percentage points higher than in 2019 (66 percent). Even small movement among these voters — who represented 5 percent of voters in 2016 — may prove significant heading into the 2020 presidential election.(iv) Obama-Trump voters are also disproportionately white, non-college educated and, as a result, are likely to be well distributed geographically for the purpose of electoral impact. …”

Different parts of the electorate care about different issues: immigration and crime are winning issues in the Center for Republicans with Independents. Conversely, health care is a winning issue for Democrats in the Center. Health care was the biggest issue in the 2018 midterms.

Look where the health care voters are though.

Health care voters are moderates who are “more anti-immigration.” If the GOP could moderate its policy agenda on health care and economics, those voters would defect from the Democrats.

Note: This is a hopeless cause though.

In 2016, only 22.7% of voters were conservatives on social identity and economics while 28.9% of voters were populists on social identity and economics. Obviously, the only viable electoral strategy for conservatives to win is to align with populists against the 41% of voters who are progressives, but they refuse as a matter of principle to moderate their message and policy agenda thereby ensuring defeat.

About Hunter Wallace 10518 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

38 Comments

    • Someone who remembers 25 years ago when monthly health insurance was on par with your power bill and now it is on par with a mortgage payment. Someone downsized into the near minimum wage part time no benefit service economy and can’t afford health insurance. I stopped in at a Dollar General in a small city in Southern Michigan and heard two middle aged women stocking the shelves have a conversation amongst themselves how disgruntled they were with their jobs. I sensed there was no way they could vote for Republicans who personify the kind of corporate scrooges they work for.

  1. There are so many different things Trump could have done that would have made the election an easy win for him. Big infrastructure or public works bill, shutting down the antifa riots, decisively acting on the coronavirus and passing aid. Instead he chose to pay rappers to endorse him and point at the stock market, which 80% of people have little or no stake in.

  2. Yet he still won the election by 10 million votes, counting legal votes only. Yeah, I know, I know, the Democratic talking points, no evidence of fraud.

    But you are right on the medical. If Republicans would turn against the socialist medical cartel, and legalize real competition, they would gain a lot of votes. The current arrangement is absurd.

    • There is an irreconcilable antagonism in the Republican Party between the vast majority of Republican voters who want things like loan forgiveness, health care reform, an end to immigration etc. and the beneficial owners of the Republican Party who don’t want those things or are indifferent. The big money in the Republican Party is wildly opposed to the things the majority of voters want and ultimately, it’s the money that does the talking. The Republicans only win any national elections because the Democrats are so terrible thus the last campaign slogan of every Republican campaign: “The Other Guy is Worse”.

  3. Anglin at yellow stormer is gushing about the speech, Nick the fag spic, rapper “Wigger” Alaska, Cuck James and the great job they did at the rally in Arizona.

  4. The Repubs banked on most whites voting for “the lesser of two evils”, which angered a lot of us. They should not be rewarded for not representing us. We need a new party.
    Why support the Repubs? They only care about the brown votes.

  5. Im in favor of free healthcare for all, sadly im not sure its possible with 48million worthless blacks and whatever the amount of beaners we now have.

    I also think that college should be free, just not for every low IQ sheboon and dumb fat white girl to major in gender studies, when they should actually be working in a cafeteria or better yet at home cooking and cleaning, college should be for the actually intelligent strictly.

    • Cuba has a high quality universal health care system, and over half their country is black or mestizo. It’s only about 30% Spanish people.

      • Here’s the shot. If black people wanted the US to have a universal or national health service they’d have stopped cockblocking Bernie, Bradley or even Edwards when they deliver their primary votes to Gore, Clinton, Biden…

        The blacks know that their free stuff is dependent on choosing the establishment Democratic candidate who mysteriously fails to enact a fair system. Whites are forced to go on frustrated in the Democratic fold as they see this repeat, or they check out or flip toward a Republican preference.

        The black vote is both the stone in the shoe in these primaries and the demographic that ultimately distorts national dialog about necessary reforms. Instead of healthcare we get niggers burning down cities bitching about cops as a Republican president promises half a trillion in free shit for blacks. That’s the shot.

        • Trump should have ran against blacks, not pandered to them. Imagine Trump dog whistling against blacks the way he did against Mexicans in 2016 while the riots were still going on. That could have won it for him. Instead, pandering to blacks was on of the main theme of the campaign.

    • You could…in an all white nation. You could have free healthcare, free college, free retirement…and even a real space program, if we weren’t spending it on nonwhites.

      • Pilot,

        Yes. And if the United States were not spending 721 Billion dollars a year on the military as in 2020. I understand wanting a strong military but that seems excessive.

        In 2020 152 million people in the USA filed tax returns. That means $4742 a year to the average taxpayer if I did my math correctly. It is my worse subject.

        • I don’t like America’s bloated military industrial complex either, Princess C. But it employs millions of people and keeps entire regions of our Empire economically afloat.

          Also: Please forgive my awkward attempt at American humor the other day when I referred to the nazca lines of Peru as NASCAR lines. Are you a descendant of the Spanish Habsburg Infanta in that famous painting by Velasquez? (Las Meninas)

          • spahnranch1970,

            That is a good point on the employment issue.

            I was not offended by anything you wrote. I find you amusing and sometimes humor is good on such a serious website. You know your paintings. No I am not descended from her though I do have some German blood in me. That accounts for me having dark brown hair instead of black.

        • @Christina,

          Not that the 721 billion dollar price tag isn’t obscene in its own right, but what makes it even more an example of incredible overkill is that America’s defense budget is more than the next nine countries defense budgets combined.

          • November,

            I did not know that. Thank you for that information. That money should be poured into health care and/or lowering taxes for those who need the money.

            I do not understand economics but how does a country that is in debt around 27 Trillion dollars continue to function? I know they print money but can it be done forever?

          • That obscene figure is too low. The U.S.’s total “defense” (war) expenditure has been estimated at around one TRILLION dollars, approximately as much as the rest of the world combined. The U.S. also uses “aid” and other channels to arm its allies and proxy forces. Hybrid war involves many different means and expenses.

    • College is already virtually free if you study online. All degrees can be studied online except for science and engineering.

      I think they should forgive all college debt, then get the government out of the business of lending money to students. Let the banks lend students the money, or the universities, or the corporations, and get rid of this no discharging student loan bullshit. No lender will take that risk for worthless degrees.

    • From Europe there is a huge reservoir of success stories as to how to do universal health care, and it doesn’t need to be socialised medicine

      In some countries doctors are still private etc, but insurance for everyone is mandatory, and ultra-cheap, and you’ve got a bunch of regulators who work effectively to control costs

      One of the key elements which can control abuse of the system, is having people pay a little bit when they go in for some care … it is funny how effective this can be … People don’t want to spend the cost of even two beers to go to the doctor, unless they actually need the service

      It astonishes Europeans the US health care system is such a mess … Seems that in so many areas, the USA is The Big Grift – health care, education, lawyers – Sad!

  6. Now where do the Southern People stand in the voting?

    These statistics apply generally across the whole of America®. Not to any one region in particular. How does any of this relate to Southern Nationalism?

  7. Day 26: Despite the election being almost a month past, Griffin continues obsessively, repeatedly, and spitefully posting about Trump and Trump’s supporters.

    Continues to focus monomaniacally on someone he hates and despises to the exclusion of doing anything else with his blog. Really weird stuff. Who in their right mind spends 26 days of their life raging and sneering against someone they despise over, and over, and over again, instead of choosing to do something more pleasant and constructive?

    Frankly, at this point, Wallace looks either like a complete nutcase, or he’s a stooge following the MSM line of “the System is legitimate, voting is 100% fair and reasonable, goyim, shut up and obey your masters because democracy works and the establishment is honest, truthful, and represents the true democratic will of the American people, and those saying there could be fraud are just flyover hicks and bitter clingers who should be despised and silenced as threats to democracy!”

    Is it so impossible to just ignore the politics and talk about Southern history or something?

    Why the frantic, endless fixation on supporting the (((mainstream narrative))) after so many declarations of “I’m through with politics?”

    • You’re forgetting that I am not a simple crank who understands the world in terms of conspiracy theories. I have a degree in this stuff which is why I am genuinely interested in analyzing it.

    • This is one of the most cringe zognat comments ever on this blog. Hunter is not obsessing over some random person, he is analyzing the President of the USA, the most powerful person in the world. The entire media has been obsessed with this issue. Notice these zognats use the Jewish style argumentation tactic of diagnosing their opponent with psychological maladies. “Oy vey, why are you so obsessed with Trump? What importance does Trump have, goy? He’s only the most hyper zionist President of the USA in history. You must be suffering from some kind of neurosis to even care about who runs your country, goy.”

      • ATBOTL

        1. Unironically, it doesn’t matter who the President is. As a WigNat, you should know that. Biden just gave all his cabinet positions to a bunch of Jews and former Corporate Executives. Trump did the same thing when he became President, which is what initially caused Hunter to diagnose him as a “fraud.” The elections matter deeply in terms of how it reflects what voters believe and feel, but the elections mean NOTHING when it comes to actual governance of the country. The Democrats are a left wing Neoliberal party, the Republicans are a right wing Neoliberal party. So, yes, you are suffering from some kind of neurosis if you obsesses over Trump’s “Platinum Plan” or any of the vapid promises offered by AOC and her squad. I can guarantee you this: My personal life will not change one iota when Biden takes the White House. It also wouldn’t have changed if Trump had gotten reelected. What will actually change our lives is long-term demographic change. But, you WigNats have abandoned that cause because those who raise awareness of it are “Racist Liberals.”

        2. Hunter is analyzing all this stuff because he needs to believe that there is popular support for Racism + Bernie Sanders, which of course, there isn’t. Populist voters in the middle are only to “The Right” of Democrats on immigration because these days, the Democrats support Open Borders. White, non-college men making less then $100K per year may not take to the streets to protest racism like Progressives do, but in their hearts, they hate racism and white supremacy as much as any Liberal or Conservative. A genuine Pro-White philosophy is shared by about 1-3% of the population, give or take how you interpret a given study. The Left has won that war, and whether “educated” racists like Hunter and Richard Spencer want to admit it or not, the only way out is to…gasp…Change People’s Minds!. But nope, they don’t want to do that because (insert elitist psychobabble from Sociology classes). It is true that Jared Taylor and Pro-White leaders like him have failed to change minds through logic and persuasion, but changing minds remains the only way that the Pro-White Movement has any chance of breaking through in meat space. Assuming, of course, that’s still the goal, and not trying to bring back Huey Long from the dead.

  8. We already have free healthcare for illegals and other indigents. They flood the emergency rooms for stuff that could easily be treated at a clinic or a doctor’s office, but those require payment before treatment. Emergency room care is much more expensive than clinics or concierge care, but these people cannot or will not pay for it. Many hospitals go bankrupt and close after being inundated with non-paying patients. Yet they are required by law to treat them even as these people abuse the system by seeking treatment for what is ordinarily a minor emergency.

    Universal healthcare and dental care would be very easy to implement IF health insurance companies were utilized as benefits managers. (Like Medicare D for prescriptions). These plans would be portable so that if you lost your job, you wouldn’t have to risk going uninsured for several months until you passed probation at a job with benefits because you couldn’t afford to COBRA your health insurance benefits from your old workplace.

    Instead of the government telling the doctors and dentists how much they could charge, these insurance companies, acting as benefits managers would negotiate how much they would pay these doctors. I imagine many of these companies could sell their clients a supplemental insurance policy that would enable their customers to get/pay for top-flight specialists or out-of-network doctors who charge more.

    This could easily be paid through a federal sales tax as well as a payroll tax. Everyone would be eligible for it including the elderly and veterans. We could construct free minor emergency clinics for any illegal to be treated as cheaply as possible for the taxpayer in the meantime.

    That way we have a universal healthcare system that doesn’t involve death committees filled with government bureaucrats determining if you deserve treatment or if you are another useless eater who needs to die already.

    Trump’s biggest mistake was not figuring out that, despite running against it, cynical Republican scumbags had no alternate plan to replace Obamacare. He should have known that was the real reason why so many were trying to get Hillary Clinton into the White House. And he should have had his own plan, ready to go. JMO.

  9. The democrats nor republicans represent us. This dissection of the election is an unnecessary exercise.

    Both dominant political parties do what their jewish donors pay them to do. It doesn’t matter what niche positions Juan and Juanita Q. Publico care about, because unless it’s the same as the jewish and anglo oligarchs, they’ll be disappointed with the outcome of election results too.

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