Meet The Whites Who Actually Voted Against Trump

I had a good laugh this morning reading Robert Hampton’s latest article at Counter-Currents. Was it really affluent Whites who cost Trump the presidency? I don’t think so.

According to the Edison Research exit poll, the upper middle class swung 10 points toward Donald Trump in the 2020 election.

According to the New York Times exit poll, Donald Trump won the upper middle class by 12 points. In fact, it was the only income bracket he won.

In the pivotal Rust Belt swing states, Joe Biden won more White working class voters than Hillary Clinton. In Wisconsin and Michigan, this was the decisive factor in Trump’s defeat in both states.

Among the working class and lower middle class, Joe Biden gained ground and Donald Trump lost ground in all three Rust Belt swing states:

  • In Michigan in the $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket, there was +22 point swing toward Joe Biden. In the $50,000 to $100,000 income bracket, there was an +11 point swing toward Joe Biden.  Donald Trump carried the upper middle class in Michigan by 3 points. It was the only group he won in the state after winning the working class and lower middle class in 2016.
  • In Wisconsin in the $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket, there was a +12 point swing toward Joe Biden. In the $50,000 to $100,000 income bracket, there was a +3 point shift toward Joe Biden. The upper middle class in Wisconsin, however, swung +7 points toward Trump.
  • In Pennsylvania in the $50,000 to $100,000 income bracket, there was a +10 point swing to Joe Biden. The upper middle class in Pennsylvania swung +8 points toward Joe Biden. The difference being, however, that the upper middle class was 23% of the electorate compared to the lower middle class which was a much greater 33% of the electorate.

In the Sunbelt, Donald Trump’s performance with the upper middle class was more mixed, but nowhere was it decisive including in Georgia where it mattered the most.

  • In Georgia, the upper middle class shifted 16 points toward Joe Biden, but the $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket also shifted 5 points toward Joe Biden, which is why he carried the state. Donald Trump underperformed with both college-educated and non-college educated Whites.
  • In Virginia, Donald Trump won the upper middle class by 7 points after losing it by 5 points to Hillary in 2016.
  • In Florida, Donald Trump won the upper middle class by a whopping 17 points. He carried it by 16 points in the 2016 election.
  • In Arizona, Donald Trump won the upper middle class by 9 points, but he lost the state because Joe Biden won the $50,000 to $75,000 income bracket by 9 points. He lost Arizona because of White working class male voters in the Phoenix area. He won them by only 11 points in 2020 after winning them by 28 points in the 2016 election.

In Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, Donald Trump lost the election because of White voters making under $100,000 a year. In Georgia, the upper middle class in the Atlanta suburbs played a significant role in Trump’s defeat, but Trump could have lost Georgia and been reelected.

The 2020 election was a bloodbath for Trump with Independent voters. The swing away from Trump was in the Center of the electorate with White Moderate and Independent voters.

Pennsylvania

Indies went from +7 Trump to Biden +8.

Ohio

Indies went from Trump +14 to Biden +6.

Michigan

Indies went from Trump +10 to Biden +8.

Wisconsin

Indies went from Trump +10 to Biden +14.

Minnesota

Indies went from Trump +2 to Biden +15.

Iowa

Indies went from Trump +13 to Biden +4.

New Hampshire

Indies went from being equally split to Biden +26.

Maine

Indies went from Hillary +5 to Biden +23.

Colorado

Indies went from Trump +3 to Biden +17

Nevada

Indies went from +13 Trump to Biden +4

Arizona

Indies went from +3 Trump to Biden +11.

Texas

Indies went from +14 Trump to Biden +6 Biden.

Florida

Indies went from +4 Trump to Biden +12.

Georgia

Indies went from +11 Trump to Biden +9.

North Carolina

Indies went from +16 Trump to Biden +4

Virginia

Indies went from +5 Trump to Biden +13.

Even if we assume that all 3,727,448 votes from Jill Stein and Gary Johnson were won by Joe Biden in 2020, he was won over 80 million votes. He has won over 14 million more votes than Hillary Clinton in 2020. Third party votes shifting to Joe Biden can’t explain this wipeout with Independents and Moderate voters. Donald Trump also won 10 million more votes. There aren’t enough Green or Libertarian voters in America to explain this result. Gary Johnson won more votes than any Libertarian in history in 2016.

What motivated these voters? Was it immigration? Was it racism?

The 2020 election was about COVID-19, the economy and jobs and health care.

The New York Times exit poll shows that anti-racist voters were significantly outnumbered by racism fatigue voters:

In 2016, the issues facing the country in the FOX News exit poll were:

Foreign Policy (13%)

Immigration (13%)

Economy (52%)

Terrorism (18%)

If the “white supremacy” narrative was so powerful, why did blacks, Hispanics, Asians and even White women shift toward Donald Trump in the 2020 election?

Why did the cucky upper middle class which is hyper sensitive on race shift either 8 points to 10 points toward Donald Trump depending on the exit poll?

Why did Donald Trump win more conservatives and Republicans in the 2020 election than he did in the 2016 election?

I have a simple explanation:

1.) First, Trump’s diminished support with Moderate, Independent and White college-educated voters reflects the perception that he is a moron. Swing voters care less about the “optics” of Groypers on the internet than being governed by a blustering incompetent retard in a pandemic.

2.) Second, Donald Trump consolidated the Right and lost in the Center because he was elected as a moderate and governed as a conservative. This explains the big surges in Trump’s disapproval rating during the health care debate, the passing of the tax cuts and the reopening.

3.) Third, Donald Trump was losing White Independents and White Moderate voters making less than $100,000 a year and was desperately trying to replace them with conservatives and Republicans. The strategy worked in some states like Texas and Florida and failed elsewhere.

4.) Fourth, Donald Trump’s improvement with minority voters also reflects this shift in perception. He was seen as less of a nationalist and more as a conventional Republican and won more of their votes in 2020. Trump returned to a George W. Bush and John McCain level of support.

5.) Finally, Trump’s improvement with the upper middle class reflects the fact that he was winning more conservatives and Republicans. Similarly, Trump’s decline with the White working class and lower middle class reflects his diminished appeal with those voters. It is true that in many places he found more White working class voters to vote for him … conservatives. He had no appeal outside of the Right.

Donald Trump was defeated in the 2020 election with precisely the group of downscale White Independent voters that “National Populism” is supposed to appeal to. Trump won 97% of Republicans in Alabama. He lost Independent voters even in this state. That really says it all.

About Hunter Wallace 9888 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

39 Comments

  1. So your plan is to get Republicans to give empty lip service to policies supported by these disaffected, former Trump voters?

  2. What was obama’s share of the white gentile male vote vs faggot romney and mccain??? Pretty sure with that muslim terrorist, he locked up 90%+ of the negro vote which the powers that be said led to his victory.

    Why do you hate America, Wallace? Your ancestors didn’t come to America because of the Confederacy.

  3. These competing interpretations of what happened in 2020 are overblown. Ultimately you are Hampton aren’t that far apart. There is no need for a circular firing squad.

    A lot if this is apples and oranges. You are talking about different groups of whites. Although Hampton mentions affluence, his analysis focused on college education as the primary class divider, not income. The college-educated white vote shifted 6 points against Trump in 2020, whereas the non-college white vote only shifted 2 points against him.
    https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/11/politics/election-analysis-exit-polls-2016-2020/

    He is also focused on the geography of where Biden made up ground — the suburbs.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/06/upshot/suburbs-shifted-left-president.html

    Where your analysis probably overlaps is that a lot of these college-educated suburban whites were indeed independents. A lot of them probably aren’t that affluent either. It’s just a matter of how you slice and dice the white electorate.

    But there’s the thing. Diagnosing what just happened and arguing where our politics SHOULD be are two completely different things. You can argue (as you do, and I agree) that the GOP is too focused on chamber of commerce types and not focused enough on a true national-populist agenda. I think you are right. I think a truly populist GOP would have rocked this election. We wouldn’t be arguing over 1% here or there because it would have been a blow out. But Trump sucked and so we didn’t get that.

    Your competing interpretations can both be right. Yes, we have a short term problem with liberal college-educated whites. A lot of them are living in la la land. Reality needs to whack them between the eyes. But also, yes, we need a true nationalist-populist agenda that appeals to working class whites.

    BOTH ARE TRUE.

    • A few thoughts:

      1.) It wasn’t affluent Whites. Trump won the upper middle class which is why he did better with conservatives and Republicans. In Georgia alone, there is a strong case that affluent Whites made it close.

      2.) The importance of college-educated voters varied by swing state. In Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, it was White working class men who elected Biden. But in Pennsylvania and Georgia, White college-educated voters were more important. In four out of five Biden swing states, it was White voters making less than $100,000 a year who swung to Joe Biden.

      3.) College-educated voter doesn’t mean affluent voter. Many of those voters were Millennials and Gen Xers in lower income brackets who voted for Joe Biden because of the student loan issue. This is probably why it is at the top of his agenda. Also, Trump has never done well with college-educated voters because they see him as a blustering retard. So it is a mix of things.

      4.) As for the suburbs, there are different types of suburbs. There are working class suburbs, middle suburbs, large suburbs which are more cosmopolitan and metropolitan and affluent suburbs. In some states like Wisconsin and Texas, most people live in the suburbs.

      5.) Finally, it should be stressed here that these are provisional takes. We will have a better view of the electorate when the validated voter surveys come out. It is highly likely the exit polls are overstating the impact of White college educated voters. If memory serves, the same thing happened in the 2016 election.

  4. Biden isn’t the president of white Americans. That’s clear from this data. No where fucking close. He certainly lost ground with the whote vote but he’s still the leader of the white vote.

    • @Cap who was the last “President of white Americans”? It wasnt Trump, the Bushs, or Reagan, so who was it? Maybe Nixon. We have not had anyone acting strictly on our behalf for most of the past century or longer because small groups of people with power have prevented it.

  5. Concern about COVID does not equal jumping on the fear wagon. I’m concerned about COVID too, not the disease, but the retarded abuse of government power that it supposedly justifies. Yes, this scamdemic could have been leveraged (let no crisis go to waste, as they say) to shut down the boarders, make long term restrictions on immigration, and even roll back the empire. I wish it had been. But beyond that it’s bullshit. I’ve followed you for many, many years, Hunter, because your analysis is usually spot on, but the fact that you are onboard with this COVID scandemic is unbelievable to me. When are you going to believe your own lying eyes?

    • That was Trumps big moment to shine and he failed. He could have had “fireside chats” about how the thing proved he was right about trade and globalism by the fact we don’t even make medicine and medical gear anymore. Trump seemed lost in his own personality cult and failed to pick up this huge fumble and run it into the end zone. He failed to see that Globalism and Trade it what won him the rust belt last time, not his personality cult. This needed to be hammered home if he had any chance of winning the type people who were suffering in “Roger and Me.”

      The people in the rust belt are really hurting, all their jobs were stolen from them by corporate America, they pay huge property taxes so government officials can retire to Florida at 55 and take all that money out of their communities, the republicans allow all these chains to run their operations on part time, near minimum wage, no benefit jobs. The obsession with weird sexual issues and criminal blacks cost the democrats a blow out. Yes the democrats are horrible, but to a middle aged white women without a good job the republicans offer nothing. What was that first year wasted on trying to repeal Obamacare? While Obamacare sucks, so did the health care system in the 2000s, it was pretty much just as expensive and they would deny even more services than they did now. I couldn’t even buy an overpriced policy after my job got exported to China, pre-existing condition denial. That whole debacle was only desired by a small number of rich people, nobody else wanted the Trump presidency to be about “Obamacare.”

      Here are some realistic good things the democrats might do that the republicans never would. Raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, give us a national health policy, increase social security, a federal ban on these “right to work” states that steal jobs from other states that don’t allow psychopathic employers to “Scrooge” their employees. I remember in the Chicago area we had the United Food and Commercial Workers, while the grocery stores didn’t pay a lot, one thing they were prohibited from doing was running their stores all on part time jobs. They could only have a small percent of their workforce “part time” and everyone else was full time 40 hours with medical benefits. I’d like to see this law nationwide for all businesses. I’d also like to see a federal takeover of all pensions converted to social security and an increase in social security so we can get rid of this Reagan “401K” scam.(Unless you are super wealthy how is saving up $100K really going to support you during retirement? Just buying a new car and a third is gone, then another year or two of living expenses and you are broke.) This would help companies burdened by huge pensions that their competitors don’t have. It would also help lower property taxes in the rust belt. Let the rich people in Florida pay for all the retires there spending money in their community, not homeowners in the rust belt. Ending “Free Trade” is not realistic for any party in Washington, they are too corrupt, only a real revolution would stop that treason. Nor do I think Hedge Funds can be cracked down on to stop the kind of crap they did to Sidney Nebraska, Washington is too awash in Manhattan Money to do anything about the financialization of the economy. I wonder if the banks will veto democratic plans to jubilee the student loan debt that Generation Bastard got suckered into by “The College Cargo Cult” the school councilors steered them into like a 17 year old getting suckered into a 6 figure car loan by an unscrupulous salesman. But the democrats can realistically help the people who the republicans abandoned to the part time low wage service economy.

  6. I am still surprised people dont see the motivation behind the decision made by Hunter, myself and hundreds of thousands if not millions of other white men in not voting for Trump again. Our hands are tied. We do not have the benefit of publicly demonstrating like Ali Akbar, Fuentes and Alex Jones as seen at Charlottesville. Most of us have been removed from social media and Youtube. So how do we make a point about our unhappiness with the system?

    Simple we dont vote in large enough numbers that it becomes impossible for the system knows we made a choice. They can make indulgent tweets about how black women decided this election but everyone knows it was white men making less than $100k a year on average and who feel stripped of their basic rights that bailed on Trump. It is an incredibly strong statement.

  7. Occidental dissent has the best analysis of the election, just like it had the best analysis of covid-19. The “right wing” has just gone completely insane over the course of 2020 and can’t even perceive reality correctly. The gap between right wing white nationalists and Q cultists has shrunk to being almost non-existent this year.

    • Very true. The Jewish alt-lite and the remnants of the alt-right have become indistinguishable. They’re all just cheerleaders for Zion Don.

  8. I didn’t vote for Blumph is 2016 and I sure didn’t vote for him in 2020. I didn’t vote in either election because voting in a multicultural society is a losing mans bet. You would think the left as well as the right would learn that none of these guys plan on keeping their promises. The US govt is more corrupt than the mafia. That’s the reason they wanted the the mafia gone, no competition. Now they only have one family running things and it;s called La Cosa Nose-stra.

  9. Odd thing about Clint Eastwood; he was one of mike bloomberg’s supporters for potus. Eastwood is a strange man.

    • Well he had to do unspeakable things with homosexual Jews on the casting couch as a youth in order to get his movie roles. I suspect that sort of thing can mess with your brain a bit. He also made a film glorifying zogbot wars for Israel.

  10. TY ! TY HW ! .time for some Rest ; time for aGreat American Holiday ; time to PLAN & SEE The Future ! GOD SAVE The Queen GOD BLESS PRESIDENT Trump GOD BLESS WhitePeople !! – – to Live & Die in DIXIE

  11. The frustration of the lower income whites is understandable, but if they are clearly ignorant mouth breathers if they think a sack of filth like Biden is going to fix anything. Everyone of his policy proposals is destructive to the economy. If pedophile-elect gets in, he will grant amnesty to the illegal alien population, open the borders, tax increases on gasoline and energy, gun grabbing. The Biden cabinet is a who’s who of American traitors with many in the GOP happy to help them if they can get some payolla out of it.

    Overall, Trump did more good things than most presidents. It’s regrettable he had (((Jared))) around making asinine policy suggestions.

    But thanks stupid white people. You will be losing even more jobs thanks to all that duh-versity the left loves as pets.

    • Put the blame on bump for serving jews and ignoring most of his campaign pledges. Don’t put the blame on white voters for catching on to blump’s scam. White voters didn’t put kushner in charge of America, blump did.

    • “I like watching my wife have sex with based MAGA Negroes while I hide in the closet and sob hysterically.”

      – A Texan, Rolling Stone interview, September 2020

  12. A lot of brainlets are struggling with the fact that most people who went to college do make not over $100,000 a year these days.

  13. Perfect is the enemy of the good. Trump was the good. Not the perfect. Biden is pure baby killing evil. Anyone defending a vote for abortion on demand up till birth Biden is evil.

    Secondly, White people are completely disorganized and have no identity they can organize around. That is our fault. Its not Trump’s problem to fix. White people are the problem!! We refuse to organize along ethnic identity. We continue to worship the globalist god of the Chosen people (who hate us). As long as you worship the chosen people’s god, you will continue to have nothing.
    Create your own religion, that is based on race (just like the chosen have). And build a folk community. Build yourself, build your family, and build a white community.
    That is the only way. But its not happening.

    • You’re falling for one of the chosenites’ many lies. They and Christians don’t worship the same god. Even Jesus himself said so (by referring to them as “The Synagogue of Satan”). Trouble is, Christianity itself has been gaslighted into believing both Jews and Muslims worship the same god they do (not true). Most so-called Christians in Murika worship either the ‘Judeo-Christ’ (a skinsuit for the Jews’ god Satan) or the Golden Dindu (god of the church of woke). They aren’t many Christians left to be sure, but a remnant exists.

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