2020 Autopsy: Arizona and Georgia

To recap:

The White vote shifted against Blumpf in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. He won Red States like Iowa and North Dakota by a smaller margin than in 2016. Trump’s margin eroded and he lost decisively in the Purple States like Minnesota, Maine and New Hampshire. Everywhere you look across the whole region the shift is Whites and Independents and Moderates.

Wisconsin 2020

Independents – 55% Biden, 41% Trump

Moderates – 60% Biden, 37% Trump

Wisconsin 2016

Independents – 50% Trump, 40% Hillary

Moderates – 52% Hillary, 42% Trump

Michigan 2020

Independents – 51% Biden, 43% Trump

Moderates – 60% Biden, 37% Trump

Michigan 2016

Independents – 52% Trump, 36% Hillary

Moderates – 52% Hillary, 42% Trump

Pennsylvania 2020

Independents – 51% Biden, 43% Trump

Moderates – 56% Biden, 42% Trump

Pennsylvania 2016

Independents – 48% Trump, 41% Hillary

Moderates – 53% Hillary, 43% Trump

Minnesota 2020

Independents – 54% Biden, 41% Trump

Moderates – 63% Biden, 34% Trump

Minnesota 2016

Independents – 44% Trump, 42% Hillary

Moderates – 48% Hillary, 43% Trump

Maine 2020

Independents – 57% Biden, 34% Trump

Moderates – 60% Biden, 36% Trump

Maine 2016

Independents – 46% Hillary, 41% Trump

Moderates – 47% Hillary, 46% Trump

New Hampshire 2020

Independents – 61% Biden, 35% Trump

Moderates – 62% Biden, 34% Trump

New Hampshire 2016

Independents – Trump 45%, Hillary 45%

Moderates – 52% Hillary, 41% Trump

Steve Bannon’s 2020 strategy was to denounce ethnonationalism and appeal to blacks, Hispanics, Jews, LGBTs (everyone but White men). He lost 1% of the black vote in Pennsylvania, picked up 1% in Wisconsin and 3% in Michigan. The cuckservative strategy lost White Moderates and Independents all over the North. They swung to Joe Biden and now he is coping saying it was rigged against Trump. Niggers stole the election from Trump everywhere from Bismarck, ND to Omaha, NE. Come on, man.

Look at this:

This is Omaha and Oklahoma City.

I find it easier to believe that Blumpf lost support with White voters.

This is where the 2020 race currently stands in Arizona:

This is where the race was in 2016:

There was higher turnout in Arizona.

There was greater polarization and Independents drew a smaller share of the vote in 2020. We’ve seen this in a number of places like Wisconsin and Minnesota.

Lets start by comparing the CNN exit polls:

Arizona 2020

Electorate – 74% White

Seniors – 50% Biden, 50% Trump

Independents – 54% Biden, 43% Trump

Moderates – 68% Biden, 31% Trump

Conservatives – 87% Trump, 12% Biden

Blacks (2% of electorate) – N/A

Hispanics (19% of electorate) – 63% Biden, 36% Trump

Whites (74% of electorate) – 51% Trump, 47% Biden

White Women – 52% Trump, 47% Biden

White Men – 51% Trump, 47% Biden

White College Educated Voters – 54% Biden, 45% Trump

White Working Class Voters – 56% Trump, 42% Biden

Arizona 2016

Electorate – 75% White

Seniors – 55% Trump, 42% Hillary

Independents – 47% Trump, 44% Hillary

Moderates – 55% Hillary, 38% Trump

Conservatives – 82% Trump, 13% Hillary

Blacks (2% of electorate) – N/A

Hispanics – 61% Hillary, 31% Trump

Whites (75% of electorate) – 54% Trump, 40% Hillary

White Women – 51% Trump, 44% Hillary

White Men – 56% Trump, 36% Hillary

White College Educated Voters – 50% Trump, 44% Hillary

White Working Class Voters – 58% Trump, 36% Hillary

What do you see in these numbers?

The Arizona electorate became 1% less White, but Trump performed 5 points better with Hispanics than in 2016. Demographics aren’t why Trump is losing Arizona.

Conservative support for Trump increased. Independents flipped to Biden. The spread with Moderates grew from -17 to -37 in Joe Biden’s favor.

Joe Biden is doing +6 points better than Hillary with the White working class and White college educated voters have flipped to Biden. The Arizona electorate, however, was 35% White working class in 2016 and 41% in 2020 while the White college educated electorate shrank from 40% in 2016 to 33% in 2020. Joe Biden’s performance with White working class voters is why he is carrying Arizona. Trump has also lost support with seniors and is splitting them with Joe Biden.

Niggers aren’t stealing the election in Arizona. They’re irrelevant there. Hispanics moved toward Trump. It is White working class men who are voting for The Other Biden.

2020

2016

Phoenix area:

Blumpf is performing better in Hispanic parts of Maricopa County.

Lets look at the New York Times exit polls:

9% of Arizona voters thought “racism” was the most important problem in American society, 60% said it was one of many problems and 29% thought it was a minor problem or not really a problem at all. It is the same story everywhere. Wokesters are like 7% of Americans.

The polls were … accurate?

Looking at these numbers it is fairly obvious that it was moderate and Independent White men who tipped Arizona to Joe Biden. Were they alienated by Baked Alaska’s antics?

While I tend to doubt the 11% of White men in Arizona who moved toward The Other Biden were disgusted by Baked Alaska’s livestreams, I suspect they found Blumpf’s presidency and 2020 campaign as cringe as I did. Clearly, they were the ones who decided to cancel it.

Starting on Georgia.

This is where the 2020 race currently stands in Georgia:

This is where the race was in 2016:

Lets start by comparing the CNN exit polls:

Georgia 2020

Electorate – 61% White

Seniors – 56% Trump, 44% Biden

Independents – 53% Biden, 44% Trump

Moderates – 65% Biden, 33% Trump

Conservatives – 86% Trump, 14% Biden

Blacks (29% of electorate) – 88% Biden, 11% Trump

Hispanics (7% of electorate) – 62% Biden, 37% Trump

Whites (61% of electorate) – 69% Trump, 30% Biden

White Women – 67% Trump, 32% Biden

White Men – 72% Trump, 27% Biden

White College Educated Voters – 55% Trump, 44% Biden

White Working Class Voters – 79% Trump, 20% Biden

Georgia 2016

Electorate – 60% White

Seniors – 67% Trump, 31% Hillary

Independents – 52% Trump, 41% Hillary

Moderates – 57% Hillary, 38% Trump

Conservatives – 85% Trump, 15% Hillary

Blacks (30% of electorate) – 89% Hillary, 9% Trump

Hispanics (4% of the electorate) – 67% Hillary, 27% Trump

Whites (60% of electorate) – 75% Trump, 14% Hillary

White Women – 70% Trump, 26% Hillary

White Men – 80% Trump, 16% Hillary

White College Educated Voters – 69% Trump, 28% Hillary

White Working Class Voters – 81% Trump, 13% Hillary

What do you see in these numbers?

The Georgia electorate became 1% whiter in 2020. Blacks and Hispanics decreased in their share of the electorate. Trump won 10% more of the Hispanic vote and 2% more of the black vote. He lost 6% of the White vote while Joe Biden won 16% more of the White vote than Hillary.

Trump declined with the White working class and White college educated voters. He plummeted 14 points with the later group. Joe Biden won 7% more of the White working class and 16% more of White college educated voters. There is no question Trump is losing Georgia because of White voters. Independents flipped outright to Biden. He went from losing moderates by 19 points to Hillary to 35 points to Biden. Trump won 2% more of the black vote though while losing 8% of White men with the Steve Bannon and Jared Kushner strategy. Trump is getting killed with White men in the Atlanta suburbs. He is doing better in some of the blacker areas in Middle Georgia.

Yep … it is the same trend that we see everywhere. Killed by Whites. Killed by Indies and Moderates. Blumpf Season 2 is cancelled.

Arizona 2020

Independents – 54% Biden, 43% Trump

Moderates – 68% Biden, 31% Trump

Georgia 2020

Independents – 53% Biden, 44% Trump

Moderates – 65% Biden, 33% Trump

Lets look at the New York Times exit polls:

College educated White men in Atlanta suburbs who are Moderates and Independents had enough of Blumpf.

No one really cares about “racism.”

16% of Georgia voters say that “racism” is the most important issue in America. Georgia is one of the blackest states in the country. 22% of Georgia voters say it is a minor problem or not a problem at all. As a rule, people who don’t care about racism voted for Trump.

The polls were also … accurate.

Conclusion: Don’t take your base for granted.

19 Comments

    • @Nightowl…

      I cannot speak for Arizona, Sir – but, I will say this : what happened in Georgia is a decades long invasion of Non-Southerners, of which Mexicans are not the principal part.

      That is our fault, The Southerners, for we have chosen to allow ourselves to be replaced, just so we could beg for scraps from Uncle Sam.

      Doing nothing, for decades at a time, has it’s consquences, including for those who founded this country.

    • Nightowl, Agree…they are probably one of the big reasons that Arizona is so liberal. There’s Central Americans and Hondurans, too. They just keep coming. Another is the sheer number of “retired” government workers, such as teachers and military, too. They are a very big liberal group that likes to retire for the next 40+ years in Arizona. Then there’s the Californians who moved there. People “think” old people are conservative, but that’s not necessarily true, either.
      Someday, whites will say they should have stopped the invasion of our nation, but by that time, it will be far too late.

  1. Some perspective on Arizona….

    I was born and raised in Phoenix, born in 1959.

    I went to public schools that had NO blacks, Mexicans, Jews, Catholics, or Muslims.
    Most of us were either Baptists or Mormons.

    Phoenix in the 1960s was VERY Conservative/libertarian right-wing with everyone owning and carrying a gun and not a liberal to be seen or heard.

    That began to change in the early 1980s with a HUGE influx of white liberals from NYC, LA, Seattle, Minneapolis, etc. Coupled with massive immigration from Mexico with 99% of Mexicans having no issue with gun control or violent crime; because that is what they lived with in Mexico.

    By the 1990s, most of Phoenix and Tucson looked like Juarez, Mexico with correspondingly high rates of crime and violence.

    By 2003 Arizona had so drastically changed (for the worse) that my home state, my “right-wing” open-carry, “Conservative state” (home of Goldwater) had elected a liberal, bull-dyke lesbian governor.

    This would have been unthinkable in the Arizona I grew up in.

    My home state is gone; as is, most of the US.

    • I got to be in Tucson mid 2000s teaching, I loved it. I’d guess Arizona is gone to the dogs now. Used to cycle Tuesday night and go out over Pikes to ride into the desert. I like the Mexicans I met. I don’t think their war with whitey is a good thing this year. When the white man starts to war again, and he will, the desert sand will go red with blood.

      Rethinking McCain, it’s obvious he knew he’d set off a powder keg if he indulged in nationalism as did Trump. The Indians voted in droves this year. Maybe we need those cavalry assholes again.

  2. This sunbelt “right to work” economy the GOP created is a huge magnet for Hispanics and Asians. There are suburbs in Dallas with whole neighborhoods composed of HUGE 6 bedroom houses right up to the property line, virtually no yard with secondary kitchen living room type spaces on the second floor. These aren’t for white people, these are for foreigners who live in these multi-generational extended families.

  3. This Baked Alaska guy is a White trash asshole. He posts videos of himself cursing at complete strangers, most of the people he is cursing at are working class people just doing their jobs.

    All the while he does not have a job himself. He lives on donations. People donate to him so they can see him humiliate working class people at their jobs.

  4. Off Topic:

    HW, you’re getting pummeled in the comments section of your recent article about Kushner’s strategy backfiring over at Unz.com.

    Lots of angry Trumptards and GOP followers are taking out their frustrations on you over there. It’s pretty amusing to read their POVs.

  5. Trump got more votes than he did in 2016. Did he really lose a lot of support? Or was the democrat strategy of mailing everyone a ballot successful in that people who usually don’t vote did, and these low conscientious types who can’t get around to voting the normal way tend to vote democrat. Also over the last four years a bunch of Silent Generation and Boomer white guys died off with a lot of fatherless bastards taking their place on the voter roles, and fatherless bastards tend to vote for socialism.

    • How did Biden win but the Republicans clearly outperformed the Dems? Why didn’t the Dems dominate the House and Senate? It’s a mystery…

      • @James…

        It’s not a mystery – there is widespread fraud.

        Once it is debunked over the coming month, President Trump will not only win, John James of Michigan will win that senate seat, as well.

        The inconsistencies of statistics are a clear indication of foul play, for this election has many assymetries that have never existed – such as Trump racking up impressive wins in Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, yet, somehow managing to lose Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

        To be sure, those Midwestern States have often divided in elections, but, a 10 point span?

        No, no way.

  6. Steve Bannon’s 2020 strategy was to denounce ethnonationalism and appeal to blacks, Hispanics, Jews, LGBTs (everyone but White men). Spot on Wallace.

    Baked Alaska is nothing but a wigger and a rap star wannabe. He is nothing but an effeminate asshole. Hopefully he and others go away when the their grift runs out.

    • Continued: I don’t believe in the COVID hoax and I don’t wear a mask, but if BA tried that on me, I would have called him outside and beat his wigger ass.

  7. In the United States, Election Day is the annual day set by law for the general elections of federal public officials. It is statutorily set by the Federal Government as “the Tuesday next after the first Monday in the month of November”[1] equaling the Tuesday occurring within November 2 to November 8.

    Tuesday is just 1 day. It’s ‘election day’ and not ‘election week’ … correct?

    The election ended Tuesday evening? Why are they still counting votes?

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