Here is the weekly update from COVID Forecast Hub, where we are storing forecasts of #COVID19 deaths in the US from 20 research groups. Our national ensemble combines 7 models and predicts that we will see ~113K deaths by June 6 (80% PI: 104K-123K). https://t.co/jWFRZLgUBu— Nicholas G. Reich (@reichlab) May 12, 2020
It’s just the flu, bro!
We’re currently at 83,425 deaths.
I see the IHME model has been updated again. It is now projecting 147,040 deaths by August 4. The Youyang Gu model which has been the most accurate is projecting 186,904 deaths by August 4. The Reich Lab COVID-19 Forecast Hub which uses an ensemble of different models is projecting 113,000 deaths a month from now. By the end of June, more Americans will have died from COVID-19 than in World War I and the 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics.
Here are two known unknowns:
1.) First, we don’t know how the reopenings will change these projections through the summer although it is highly likely that the numbers will become even worse.
2.) Second, we don’t know what will happen in the fall and winter with the virus although the history of pandemics strongly suggests a second wave which will be even bigger and will peak in the fall.
In light of the above, it has been amazing to watch the mainstreamers clinging to Donald Trump and humping the leg of conservatism like nothing has happened over the past three months. It is not as bad as lightning strikes! It is not as bad as falling off ladders! It is not as bad as bee stings! This virus is a piker compared to swine flu! 12,400 people died when Obama was president!
You would think it would have dawned on them by now that Donald Trump is finished and that the coronavirus will be an albatross hung around the neck of mainstream conservatism which will last for generations. We’re well on the way to this becoming the single most devastating public health disaster in American history. No politician can recover from something like this particularly when his base is old people and the virus is just slaughtering old people. The death toll might swing entire states.
All I am saying is that it makes no sense to identify yourself with Trump and Conservatism, Inc. right now. If you had any sense, you would be social distancing from this wreck.
Note: I told you it was an iceberg.