I’m seeing a bunch of talk about how the code behind the simulations for the March 16 @MRC_Outbreak report (https://t.co/xyMJL1Ejjs) was never previously released and is not well written. This is then taken to somehow mean that the “lockdown” policy was ill-founded. 1/11
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) May 8, 2020
I’m seeing a bunch of talk about how the code behind the simulations for the March 16 @MRC_Outbreak report (https://t.co/xyMJL1Ejjs) was never previously released and is not well written. This is then taken to somehow mean that the “lockdown” policy was ill-founded. 1/11
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) May 8, 2020
In 1927(!), Kermack and McKendrick derived the total proportion of the population expected to be infected in the course of an epidemic in a simple SIR model as the attached equation. Solving this for R0 of 2.4, we get a total proportion infected (or attack rate) of 88%. 3/11 pic.twitter.com/BLtZFSxfTc
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) May 8, 2020
From the report, running the simulation gives an attack rate of 81%. As you’d expect, particular choices about household size, etc… make a difference, but it’s not huge. 4/11 pic.twitter.com/EC5Sp3o4mb
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) May 8, 2020
Without the simulation, just from basic epi knowledge we can assume that COVID-19 will infect a large fraction of the population in the absence of any control measures or *behavioral changes*. 5/11
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) May 8, 2020
Given an IFR of 0.9% and ~80% of the population infected, we easily derive the widely circulated mortality estimates of ~2M deaths in the US and ~500k deaths in the UK. 6/11
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) May 8, 2020
However, the main point of the report was that given IFR, we should be pursuing suppression rather than mitigation. This implies a strict lockdown for suppression followed by #TestTraceIsolate to keep epidemic suppressed. 10/11
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) May 8, 2020
Notably, this is exactly what countries like South Korea and New Zealand have been able to achieve. The US was not able to reach suppression with our lockdown and so we’re left with agonizing decisions about how to keep society functioning while holding the virus in check. 11/11
— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) May 8, 2020
78,463 dead.
1,017,666 active cases.
Where are we going with this?
“By now we know — contrary to false predictions — that the novel coronavirus will be with us for a rather long time.
“Exactly how long remains to be seen,” said Marc Lipsitch, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “It’s going to be a matter of managing it over months to a couple of years. It’s not a matter of getting past the peak, as some people seem to believe.”
A single round of social distancing — closing schools and workplaces, limiting the sizes of gatherings, lockdowns of varying intensities and durations — will not be sufficient in the long term.
In the interest of managing our expectations and governing ourselves accordingly, it might be helpful, for our pandemic state of mind, to envision this predicament — existentially, at least — as a soliton wave: a wave that just keeps rolling and rolling, carrying on under its own power for a great distance. …”
TL;DR
The lockdown was too little, too late.
This is going to be a two year ordeal until herd immunity is reached. We can’t take back February and March. The only thing this is comparable to is the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.
I agree. Our rulers screwed the pooch early and often. But don’t they always.
Yes, and it will surpass the Spanish Flu, significantly. Roughly 650,000 U.S. deaths compared with 2 million. Praying for you and your family, Hunter. The second seal has already been broken.
“The lockdown was too little, too late.”
EXACTLY ! …………… Our gov is not proactive or foresighted.
The same thing will happen economically and eventually, racially.
I suppose it could still work in some places. They would have to shutdown interstate travel. Seal off Montana and Wyoming. Maybe Hawaii and Alaska. That’s not going to happen though.
Brazil is rapidly rising is the list of fatal cases, now displacing the UK.
I can easily foresee Brazil becoming #1, with lax dismissing by Bolsonaro and the racial quagmire of its vast slums.
Yes,the majority cases are SAO PAULO and RIO DE JANEIRO,where the biggest slums are located.The state I Live has had 0 deaths in the last days.And it was surprisingly one of the first states to start the lockdown.Few nigs nogs around unlike RIO and SAO PAULO.
Whoever wins in 2020 is going to be stuck with this shit sandwich, and they’re going to have to keep taking big old bites. Good. Unfortunately, we have to live in their world and that means more dead Americans. There is no way out of this. And Americans are the easiest people to lead astray, as the copious amount of flu truthers attest.
Hopefully this is one more nail in the American coffin. But there a lot more to go.
Re: “Seal off Montana and Wyoming. Maybe Hawaii and Alaska”:
Venezuelan ex pats fleeing back to Venezuela where it is safer, lowest infection rate in South America, despite the U.S.’s blockade, financial theft (sanctions) and constant mercenary incursions.
Knowing that so-called herd immunity is going to happen and that most of us will be infected, the real discussion should shift at least somewhat to getting as healthy as possible, and that means losing weight, exercising outdoors, getting sunlight to raise vitamin D, and probably most importantly, eating something different than the standard American diet. The US has just blandly accepted being one of the most obese, diabetes prone populations and that makes the country uniquely positioned to suffer a higher rate of fatalities. This is a loser nation. I’m ashamed of it honestly, and not just our leadership, it’s the people too.
If you look at old footage from the 80s and (especially) earlier, people looked much different. Now most Americans look fat and sick, covered with ugly tattoos. This is a nation of defeated people.
If people aren’t getting healthy now, then they never will, and it’s a lost cause. One of the underrated benefits of the last month of lockdowns is that, with so many people having reduced work and school hours, they’ve theoretically had more time for exercise and home cooking. I’ve been a lot better about both of those myself lately, and it’s shown.
If folks have spent the time just binging on McDonalds and Netflix, then I don’t know what their thought process is.
Beware a dying Empire lashing out.
You can compare this to 1914 when Archduke Franz Ferdinand was shot, a real earth shaker!