Honestly, I hope every state that forced businesses to close for a virus with a now proven death rate of less than 1%, gets sued by thousands of people simultaneously.— The Cool Elefant (@CoolElefant) May 7, 2020
It still likely has a death rate multiple times higher than the seasonal flu, but this drawn out reaction is extremely disproportionate and will almost certainly kill more.— The Cool Elefant (@CoolElefant) May 7, 2020
Bad news for flu truthers.
After exclusions, there were 13 estimates of IFR included in the final meta-analysis, from a wide range of countries, published between February and April 2020.
The meta-analysis demonstrated a point-estimate of IFR of 0.75% (0.49-1.01%) with significant heterogeneity (p<0.001).
Based on a systematic review and meta-analysis of published evidence on COVID-19 until the end of April, 2020, the IFR of the disease across populations is 0.75% (0.49-1.01%). However, due to very high heterogeneity in the meta-analysis, it is difficult to know if this represents the ‘true’ point estimate. It is likely that different places will experience different IFRs. More research looking at age-stratified IFR is urgently needed to inform policy-making on this front.”
The IFR of flu is 0.04%. The attack rate is significantly lower due to the availability of vaccines and existing immunity within the public.
The IFR of COVID-19 falls in the 0.49-1.01% range. The attack rate is significantly higher due to the lack of a vaccine and existing immunity.
“Less than 1%” sounds like a good number. The Imperial College study though predicted an IFR of 0.9% for Britain based on Chinese data.
328.2 million (U.S. population) x 81% (prevalence) x 0.75% (IFR) = 1,993,815 predicted deaths. This is within the range of 1.8 million to 2.2 million predicted deaths without mitigation.
It is “just the flu” for people under 30 years old.
COVID-19 is racist against black people.
I know this sounds like an impossible number, but that is the number of people who would die without a treatment or vaccine before herd immunity is reached. A fatality rate of 0.6% isn’t reassuring either because New York City has a younger population than the United States.
BTW, I can scarcely believe it myself. It just seems unbelievable that the death toll could be 2 million. It went north of even the worse flu season estimates a week ago.
Note: A meta-analysis is a study of studies.