Important thread about the IHME model and communication failures by the IHME team. https://t.co/PagRIJO3CC— Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) April 29, 2020
Wait, am I really getting trolled by the JetBlue founder? Wild.— Carl T. Bergstrom (@CT_Bergstrom) April 28, 2020
As I explained in the @nytimes yesterday, the ~20% incidence (not prevalence!) in NYC is right in line with other good estimates and given NYC deaths yields an IFR of 0.7-1%, far higher than Ioannidis is claiming. https://t.co/1VHNl4VHTq
Thanks for putting this together. One thing to note: in our study (https://t.co/3oW7dK0mtX), the adjusted IFR was 0.6% (95% CI: 0.2–1.3), not 1.2% (that was the CFR)— Adam Kucharski (@AdamJKucharski) April 28, 2020
Antibody tests support what’s been obvious: Covid-19 is much more lethal than the flu https://t.co/R4ZDB8pLU4 most of the good studies seem to say i.f.r. 0.5-1%. let’s hope for therapeutics (vacc far off if it happens)— Razib “self quarantine if you” Khan (@razibkhan) April 29, 2020
Is the IFR 0.5-1%? Or is it 0.1-0.2% as the Santa Clara and LA studies suggest. Ignoring the fact that 0.1% IFR implies that all 8 million people in NYC have already been infected (which we doubt), we argue that a low number doesn’t mean that shutdowns were an over-reaction. 4/5— Natalie E. Dean, PhD (@nataliexdean) April 30, 2020
We can compare #COVID19 1% infection fatality rate with an expected >80% attack rate (R0 of ~3) to seasonal influenza with 0.1% IFR and yearly attack rate of ~10%. Simple math would put unmitigated spread as >80X worse than a typical flu season.https://t.co/uLHDQz0Fqq— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) April 23, 2020
What is the IFR of COVID-19?
It is probably 0.5% to 1%, not 0.1% like the flu, which explains the deaths we are seeing. The fact is, if it was only as deadly as, say, swine flu, it would have killed a similar number of people.
A year ago, I could have never imagined this scenario of agreeing with Chris Hayes over Tucker Carlson. Just a few months ago, I didn’t anticipate that Trump would have to stare down a pandemic either. I assumed nothing big would happen and he would KAG his way to the 2020 election with Charlie Kirk. No one could have imagined a blackpilled scenario of this magnitude.
Note: As an INTP, this kind of problem is right up my alley though.
Hu Xijin is too smart to be on American television: