NY Times: Ohio Is No Longer a Bellwether Because Hillary Is Losing

Yes, it has been 56 years since Ohio voted for the loser in the presidential election, but The New York Times is now saying Ohio is “a melting iceberg, has slowly been losing its status as the country’s bellwether”:

“ATHENS, Ohio — After decades as one of America’s most reliable political bellwethers, an inevitable presidential battleground that closely mirrored the mood and makeup of the country, Ohio is suddenly fading in importance this year.

Hillary Clinton has not been to the state since Labor Day, and her aides said Thursday that she would not be back until next week, after a monthlong absence, effectively acknowledging how difficult they think it will be to defeat Donald J. Trump here. Ohio has not fallen into step with the demographic changes transforming the United States, growing older, whiter and less educated than the nation at large.

And the two parties have made strikingly different wagers about how to win the White House in this election: Mr. Trump, the Republican nominee, is relying on a demographic coalition that, while well tailored for Ohio even in the state’s Democratic strongholds, leaves him vulnerable in the more diverse parts of the country where Mrs. Clinton is spending most of her time. …

Some political veterans speak with wonder about private polls showing Mr. Trump leading even in bedrock Democratic communities. “I see, at best, lack of enthusiasm in traditional Democratic areas,” said Dennis E. Eckart, a former Democratic congressman from suburban Cleveland. …”

As soon as Hillary perks back up in the polls in Ohio, I expect you will find that Ohio’s bellwether status has been magically restored!

If Trump wins Iowa and Ohio, I predict he will win the election, and vice versa for Hillary. I do not expect Trump will win Iowa and Ohio, but lose the election because he lost North Carolina and Florida. It could very well happen, but I seriously doubt it given the partisan alignment and history of those two states. Similarly, no candidate with a commanding lead in Iowa and Ohio is down 6 to 7 points nationwide.

Just like after the conventions, the polls are going to bounce up and down as we move through the debates. They always do. Ohio, however, is going to vote for the winner. Bet on it.

Note: Let me explain.

For Hillary to have any chance of winning Florida and North Carolina, she will need AN EXTRAORDINARY BLACK TURNOUT. The bottom line is, Obama couldn’t win North Carolina in 2012 and black turnout in that year exceeded White turnout for the first time in history. In 2012, Obama won Florida by 74,309 votes. 95 percent of blacks in Florida voted for Obama. He won Florida by less than 1 percent.

Obama is far, far more popular than Hillary and he barely won Florida and lost North Carolina in 2012. Obama had to get 95 percent of the black vote in Florida to win. Hillary is getting around 81 percent of the black vote. Obama had Millennials in his camp. Hillary is losing huge numbers of Millennials to Gary Johnson. Fewer Millennials plan to vote in this election than in any election in the past 16 years.

One more thing that is highly significant about Florida: it is one of the oldest states in the United States. As everyone who lives in Florida knows, it is full of retirees from the Northeast and Midwest. Barack Obama barely beat Mitt Romney in Florida and he could scare them into believing Paul Ryan wanted to take away their Social Security.

What about Hispanics? They’re not particularly excited about Hillary either. Before the presidential debate, she was losing Nevada and hanging on by a nail in Colorado. The polls are bouncing around now, but they will settle before the election.

Could Trump find some way to bungle his way to a defeat in North Carolina and Florida? Sure, but if did that he would be because he is losing nationwide, not because he is winning Ohio and Iowa, but somehow losing Florida and North Carolina. I don’t expect that to happen.

65 Comments

  1. Gary Johnson is the veal pen for men who have girlfriends that monitor their political utterances.

    He’s also a marvelous option for lefties who smoke weed and want interracial relationships with migrants.

    This is not Trump’s base.

  2. There is not the same energy with the Dem Base as there was in 2006 2008 and 2012. The right is fired up like never before.

    All Trump has to do is target the “Normies” and suppress the anti-whites by eschewing controversy.

      • I believe that what we say can reach the campaign at least. Perhaps not Trump, but the people who have his ear, Don Jr and Eric.

        If the rest of the “alt right” starts pushing a confident message, it will energize Trump and get him back to the early days of the campaign when he believed he could Make America Great Again for the average working family.

        True confidence this time, not the “ignore the polls” confidence, will also spur the white rank-and-file to determinedly march out on Election Day and strike a blow against The Enemy.

        Quiet confidence: don’t activate the Dem Base.

        • If he could just get up there, smile, stay calm, and brush off her attacks with … let’s talk about free trade, wars, crime, immigration, etc. he will win.

          Her whole strategy is to bait him into proving he doesn’t have the temperament to be president. All he has to do to win is to not defeat himself in the debate.

          There’s nothing she can do to be likeable, human, or genuine.

          • It’s extraordinary that he let the frame slip. Just patiently go “what about her…wars, embezzlement and incompetence” Then start talking about coal mines, textile factories, car plants…

            FFS Trump Jr we do know you people read this. Just keep it gentlemanly and concise and the office is yours.

          • Wierd thing was how Trump “Won” the debate online and yet the Jew Media immediately moved to quash that and supplant it with their narrative.

      • And be for the people not his ego which if he were an alpha would be unassailable by the likes of Hillary.

        Hillary is the office bitch of bitches who everyone fawns over till they don’t have to anymore.

      • ‘All Trump has to do is smile, remain calm, and stay confident and on message in the next two debates.’

        Sounds exactly like the advice Romney was given. Everyone thought he had a lock on the Presidency.

        Not quite.

        He stopped criticizing Obama and told us what a great guy the Halfrican was and that he was just trying to do what is best for the country.

        The nice guy strategy can only go so far before it backfires.

        Obama’s people play dirty politics. Hillary and Bubba have been cunning, devious, and crooked as hell for decades.

        That strategy worked well for them and might again.

        ‘Nice guys finish last.’ Not always but usually the case in politics.

        Trump has got to go for the jugular with a smile on his face.

        He can’t expect the GOPe to slice and dice Hillary.

        They won’t.

  3. The New York Times [email protected]
    Donald Trump bashes Alicia Machado again, alleging a “sex tape” (without evidence) http://nyti.ms/2dwViu5

    Ann Coulter [email protected]
    Ann Coulter Retweeted The New York Times
    NYT’s internet modem must be out. HERE’S ALICIA MACHADO’S SEX TAPE, NYT! http://bit.ly/2dwM1ld & http://dailym.ai/2dbmYAW

    Ann Coulter [email protected]
    What happened to character tests for citizenship? Alicia Machado, accused getaway driver, threatened judge w/ murder, had narco-king’s baby.

  4. This is wonderful News. The Jigs won Ohio for Obama in 2012, we need to stop these Jigs in 2016. The Race War, which has been raging in DIXIE since 1954, is about to go nationwide

  5. Hillary has already made it very clear she sees it as her MAJOR role, Her First Responsibility if she wins The Presidency, in her mind she sees her Presidential Role First-And-Foremost to make sure ALL children in the United Sates are FULLY AND COMPLETELY INDOCTRINATED WITH HER NEW WORLD ORDER “RELIGION”, with the Communist Leftist ideology and way of thinking and worldview, and she won’t accept anyone who wants to teach their childern anything different than her ideology, which is a “religion”, and her “religion” is satanic and it serves the satanic New World Order.

    If Hillary wins, there will be persecution of Christians in the United States, especially Christians who don’t go to 501c3 churches, but go to Christian churches that don’t take 501c3, and independent Christian parents who home school their children. At first, the persecution will be “legal”, as in lots of lawsuits against Christians, and if that’s not effective enough, Hillary will resort to calling upon her Communist goons to do violence aganst Christians who are “relcalcitrant”.

    She’s made it very clear she sees it as her Major Role First and Foremost as President to make sure ALL children in the United States are FULLY AND COMPLETELY INDOCTRINATED WITH HER NEW WORLD ORDER SATANIC “RELIGION”. No wonder Hollywood loves Hillary so much, Hollywood becomes more satanic with every passing week. More and more satanism coming out of Hollywood all the time and satanic Hollywood loves Hillary — says alot right there about Hillary’s “religion”. The “religion” she wants and DEMANDS ALL children be taught and ALL children be indoctrinated in, the type of “satanic” “religion” emanating out of Hollywood. AND she will do whatever she has to do to put down any “deplorable” who wants to teach their children Christianity. Including outright violence and outright persecution of Christians, for that’s what Hollywood is now preaching to the masses , preaching that Christians need to be persecuted, and Hollywood loves satanic Hillary and Hillary loves satanic Hollywood. Says alot right there about her true nature.

  6. Without commenting on Trump’s handling, these past few days, of the Alicia Machado matter, I’ll say it’s hard not to be struck by Machado’s poor behavior in the 1997 clip I’ll link below. Watch what happens at 1:23, as Trump tries to compliment her on her reversal of her weight gain …

  7. Another video where Trump is very charming and discusses the matter in context.

    By the way, this chica wouldn’t win a beauty contest among some women in my immediate and extended family. Overrated, affirmative action pick.

    • I found a tape PURPORED To be Alicia Machado but some say it isn’t here. All I know is its some Latin girl with the same name

  8. my my. . . . .Jew York Times, like the rest of the media, has been wrong time after time. The stench of desperation is in the air.

    • I’m not going on that site – but yes. The puta appeared in porn trash. It’s also got an outstanding warrant for threatening the life of the judge in Venezuela, allegedly driving the getaway car in a murder, and the Baby Daddy of the whore’s hija is a cartel lord.

  9. There’s been quite a few times when I wished that he would stop this twitter bullshit,and focus on the hard issues. Talk about immigration and trade, that’s what will win this election for him. He doesn’t have to answer some low life like Machado or whatever the fuck her name was. She’s nothing.

    • I wonder though. Hillary brings up this cunt as her friend and it turns out that this cunt is a narco-gangsters moll and a porn actress.

      I suggest this means Hillary doesn’t want to discuss Free Trade v Protectionism?

    • After a month of steady climbing, out of the hole into which he put himself with the Khizr Khan thing, he’s Khizr Khan’d himself again, I suspect.

        • Whatever was the nature of the Khan misstep, this Machado thing is a misstep, too. All that remains to be seen is how much damage it will do.

          • I don’t have a crystal ball nor need one to know that whenever Trump defends himself the concerned had wringers come out in full force.

            Trump was rather tepid in his criticism of Hillary in the last debate in my opinion. But of course anything he says even if 100% correct will be labeled as an unforced error or lack of discipline or whatever.

            There is such a thing as constructive criticism.

            You fellows magnify insignificant trivial stuff way out of proportion and assail Trump’s intelligence, judgment, temperament and character.

            Also, I have noticed that Hillary’s supporters do not go out of their way to scrutinize and dissect her every move. On the contrary, they downplay or ignore her crooked history choosing instead to focus on the enemy…Trump.

            Makes me wonder if some of Trump’s concerned critics are ‘Chicken Little’ demoralisers or Tokyo Rose wannabes.

            Doesn’t matter in the long run.

          • Oh–right: it “makes you wonder,” Sam.

            This is an election, Sam: That’s all. Either you win it–or you lose it. What Trump’s doing is how one loses it.

          • He is doing far better than anyone imagined.

            Damn near the whole world has been aligned against him, not to mention the media, Wall Street, Hollyweird, the GOPe and the Demoncrats.

            If he was as clueless and inept as some of his critics have asserted he would not have made it past the first primary.

          • Great, Sam. The week after the election, that can be Time magazine’s cover-blurb: He did far better than anyone imagined.

          • I doubt it will have legs past this weekend. No one who would vote for Trump, or is on the fence about Trump, cares what a used up Mexican whore says. Furthermore, her credibility is a joke.

          • Exactly. Responding has hammered home for many that he doesn’t have the temperament to be president. Hillary is corrupt and evil. The fact that Trump is the best we can muster against this tide is telling. Wasn’t there anyone out there with his views but with some modicum of self-control and education? Or has the purge been that effective?

          • Although part of me is inclined to say yes, the purge has been that effective, my real feeling–which, I suppose, might just be sentimentality–is that Trump’s floundering is a consequence of his superiority: God Emperors can’t do retail politics.

            In the September 30 installment of Radio Derb, his weekly podcast at vdare.com, John Derbyshire, in speaking of the debate, used that phrase: retail politics. As he elaborated, he said, “I can’t take retail politics in large doses: the clichés and catchphrases, the artificial emotions, the cant, and the lies ….” That sums it up, so maybe Trump’s not having a knack for it is, as I say, a sign of superiority.

            In Houston Stewart Chamberlain’s “The Foundations of the Nineteenth Century,” there’s a passage that often comes to my mind when I think about Trump. Chamberlain is speaking of Theodoric, the Ostrogoth who ruled Italy for about a third of a century, under the aegis, I guess, of the Roman Emperor, in Constantinople. Though a barbarian, the German Theodoric, in Chamberlain’s view, ranks above the mongrelized Italian population he rules. Chamberlain writes as follows …

            “Very noteworthy too is the difference which reveals itself here in a hundred ways, between the innate decency, taste and intuition of rough but pure, noble races and the mental barbarism of civilized mestizos. [The earlier Emperor] Theodosius, his tools (the Christian fanatics) and his successors had done their best to destroy the monuments of art; on the other hand, the first care of Theodoric, the Eastern Goth, was to take strong measures for the protection and restoration of the Roman monuments. This man could not write, to sign his name he had to use a mental stencil, but the Beautiful, which the bastard souls in their ‘Culture,’ in their hunting after offices and distinctions, in their greed of gold had passed by unheeded, the Beautiful, which to the nobler souls among the Chaos of Peoples was a hateful work of the devil, the Goth at once knew how to appreciate; the sculptures of Rome excited his admiration to such a degree that he appointed a special official to protect them.”

            I guess that’s what goes through my mind when I compare Trump to the ordinary politicians, whether cucks or liberals: “This man could not write”–and yet …

            At https://books.google.com/books?id=96gYAAAAYAAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=Foundations+of+the+nineteenth+century&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiYgK7UprvPAhWCVD4KHZVZBtYQuwUIJzAB#v=onepage&q=%22could%20not%20write%22&f=false is the Chamberlain passage in context, if you’d like to see it.

            PS I’ll understand if you reply, “No–you’re being insanely sentimental. Trump’s a disaster.”

  10. Wow!

    If true it confirms what we have believed about the upcoming election.

    BREAKING: “Tens of thousands” of fraudulent Clinton votes found in Ohio warehouse
    By admin1 – September 30, 2016

    http://christiantimesnewspaper.com/breaking-tens-of-thousands-of-fraudulent-clinton-votes-found-in-ohio-warehouse/

    Election officials in Franklin County, Ohio are reportedly stumped over what one maintenance worker found in a dilapidated downtown Columbus warehouse earlier this week.

    According to sources, Randall Prince, a Columbus-area electrical worker, was doing a routine check of his companies wiring and electrical systems when he stumbled across approximately one dozen black, sealed ballot boxes filled with thousands of Franklin County votes for Hillary Clinton and other Democrat candidates.

    “No one really goes in this building. It’s mainly used for short-term storage by a commercial plumber,” Prince said.

    So when Prince, who is a Trump supporter, saw several black boxes in an otherwise empty room, he went to investigate. What he found could allegedly be evidence of a massive operation designed to deliver Clinton the crucial swing state.

    Early voting does not begin in Ohio until October 12, so no votes have officially been cast in the Buckeye state. However, inside these boxes were, what one source described as, “potentially tens of thousands of votes” for Hillary Clinton.

    Christian Times Newspaper has not yet been able to obtain a photocopy of one of the ballots found inside the box, but an affiliate in Ohio passed along a replica of what was found.

    http://christiantimesnewspaper.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/ballotx.jpg

  11. At this point–after the debate fiasco and the early-morning Machado tweets that made the news today (September 30)–Trump will be lucky if Bannon and Conway don’t simply resign.

  12. Our anti-White enemies routinely rewrite or more often ignore history in order to suit their agenda. They get away with it because our “conservatives” never take them up on it. The sainthood of MLK and exoneration of Joe McCarthy, two examples that come to mind.

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