Live Thread: First 2016 Presidential Debate

Prediction

Just as I predicted several months ago, the presidential election has come down to an extremely tight race with Donald Trump having about a 40 percent chance to win the presidency. He’s actually polling somewhat better than that (between the 46% to 48% range) in the latest 538 average out this afternoon.

The presidential election has also come down to a pitched battle over cucked, college educated, middle class White suburbanites: the Research Triangle in North Carolina, the Atlanta suburbs in Georgia, NOVA in Virginia, the I-4 corridor in Florida, Metro Phoenix in Arizona, the Reno area in Nevada, suburban Milwaukee in Wisconsin, suburban Detroit in Michigan, suburban Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati in Ohio, the Philadelphia suburbs in Pennsylvania and exurban Boston in Maine and New Hampshire.

Trump is doing slightly better than I expected because so many things have broken his way: steering clear of gaffes and scandals since Khizr Khan episode, Hillary’s health scare, Hillary’s email revelations, the Clinton Foundation scandal, “Basket of Deplorables,” the ineffectiveness of Hillary’s television ads, Cruz endorsed, the black riots in Charlotte and Milwaukee, and the terrorist attacks in Minnesota and New York/New Jersey. Hillary has also proven incapable of making herself more likable since her convention.

In light of the above, we will see an affable Trump tonight who wants to come across as presidential. He will be respectful and courteous to Hillary. The gameplan will be to smile, demonstrate his policy chops to show he is qualified, and avoid taking the bait under any circumstances. Hillary will be trying to demonstrate that Trump is a racist and that he doesn’t have the temperament to be president. We will also see another performance of non-racist Trump and Trump as the populist tribune of the common man.

Anything could happen. Lester Holt could try to sabotage Trump with fact checking. I expect Hillary will get credit for not keeling over and dying on stage and that the #LyingPress will declare her the victor no matter what happens on stage. Hillary will have to demonstrate that she is a likable human being – TOUGH. She will have to get the Berners on board without saying anything that will trigger the White college educated suburbanites who normally vote Republican and scare them into voting for Trump. She will have to upstage Trump in front of a television audience with her canned lines and zingers which will be hard to do given his reality television experience.

Hillary Clinton is a wonk with a firm grasp of public policy, but someone who has no genuine political talent whatsoever. Trump is still struggling to grasp policy details (will he get a question like “Who is the president of Tajikistan?”), but he is a seasoned reality television star who understands how the media works. He also has good instincts. We will know much more about how these two match up in a few hours.

Note: Expect the polls to get bouncy as we move through the debates.

83 Comments

    • I hate it when Trump tries to be nice in order to please the press and lady voters. I know he’s a good guy but he’s at his best when he’s being tough and unapologetic.

    • Sean Hannity of course! Just call him, he’ll vouch for everything I say. Please, oh please why won’t someone just call him?!?!

  1. Like HW says the jewsmedia is going to declare Bedpan Hillary the winner of the debate no matter what. If she croaks in front of everyone tonight it will be the only decent thing she’s ever done.

  2. Trump just needs to play it safe. Don’t rise to the bait or fall into the traps.

    If he just smiles a lot and politely gives his answers, that alone will be effective given how the MSM has built him up as a Hitler-Satan hybrid.

  3. she’s not saying solid things — she’s just saying typical stuff. Strong growth, new jobs — but she doesn’t tell how

  4. They are both losing. Trump needs to speak more calmly and deliberately. There is nothing that Clinton can do because she is repeating canned, over-rehearsed answers.

    • Clinton’s attacks were almost all hearsay. I mean she could have said Trump is an alien or Trump runs a mafia family and any of those would have been as real as anything she attempted to stick Trump with. Nothing she said was based on evidence.

      When Clinton started talking about tax returns, and claiming that we don’t know what he is hiding or who his shadowy connections are to, Trump should have slammed her with the Clinton Foundation. And when she brought up the lawsuit against Trump’s company, he should have brought up the fact she represented criminals, including rapist. I mean that is the level of debating Clinton was doing.

      She wasn’t really debating at all, just throwing around maybes, ifs, and possibilities.

      • That’s true. She used very children bottom of the barrel attacks. Trump could have easily reflected any of them. He didn’t. I guess he was trying to be presidential, but if I were him I would have brought up the Clinton Foundation, and the fact that she has represented rapist and racist Black Panthers.

        If Clinton could bring up a lawsuit filed by the biased Justice Department against his company, why not bring up the fact that she defended a creep who harmed a child?

  5. Holt really is chucking softballs. Predictable but there you go. She’s literally fillibustering the entire debate.

    • This has gotten too personal. I have a feeling they are both losing. Ad hominems can be fun to hear, but it’s about America, not petty insults toward each other.

    • Well–what were you expecting? Several reasonable Trump supporters–including me–have been pointing out all along that his debate performances during the primary season were not strong. What does that gain us at places like Occidental Dissent? “Shut up, faggot.” “Why are you anti-Trump?” Etc. Meanwhile–Andrew Anglin and his gang of juveniles keep offering their memes of Trump decked out like Thor and keep talking about how Hillary’s gonna “get blown the fuck out.”

      Learn to keep an eye on reality. It makes life so much easier.

      • Well–what were you expecting?

        I think many were expecting her to collapse on stage. Or call it off. Personally, to me, neither one really said much. Who won? Neither. It was a dumpster fire. Hillary mostly used the same, tired old Bolshevist class warfare rhetoric we’ve been hearing since before 1917.
        Trump missed a couple of opportunities to strike.

      • Something is up with this one. The pulled punches on Syria. He’s been warned off just like Romney was over Benghazi.

  6. Trump’s combination of refusing to do basic preparation and snapping at every piece of bait she has thrown down all night has sunk him in this debate by normie standards.

    • I think you are right. He’s lost frame and is qualifying himself. He could have called her a warmonger.

  7. Vox’s site is full of paid trolls your site is not, how does that feel?

    But from what I gather Trump did not deliver a knock out

  8. Trump is still too politically correct to challenge Clinton on issues like race relations. The fact is he simply repeats a lot of the lies and half-truths that exist in the media, but leave out everything else. Anyone of us on here could destroy Clinton in a debate on race, or for that matter, a BLM activist or leftist.

    For one, blacks receive far more justice than do white people. How many times have the news media done a story on a white person killed by a black or a police officer?

    How many times has the Justice Department investigated racism against whites? How many times have the president spoken out about things that impact whites?
    When was the last time a presidential candidate debated issues concerning whites?

    Zero!

    So this idea that blacks get no justice is a myth, which people only believe because the media says so, and the media as we all know will never question or investigate the opposite opinion.

    Look at the track record of the Justice Department for proof. The department spends about half of its resources just investigating discrimination against black people, the other half it’s investigating discrimination against gays, women, and Muslims. The Justice Department has systematically failed to investigate or probe even one case of discrimination against whites despite there be many cases that could warrant an investigation. The recent Charlotte and Milwaukee lynch mob’s attack on whites, the black panther vote intimidation case from 08, and the “knock out” attacks are all good examples where the Justice Department have ceased to function and protect the rights of all Americans.

    Secondly, blacks commit far more crimes per capita than whites. Yet no one ever ask why it is that whites are more likely to be killed by police. Last year there were over 550 white people killed by police officers, compared to 250 blacks. If you based you knowledge on police shooting and brutality just by what the media portrays you would thinks thousands of blacks are being killed by police, and that every last cop is white, and that no whites were killed last year by police. So again, there is plenty of justice for blacks who receive 24/7 news coverage in addition to the support of athletes, politicians, and other celebrities. For white people being killed it’s crickets, crickets, and more crickets.

    In 2015 Blacks committed 55% of homicides, yet despite the fact that they commit more homicides, more serious crime, and are far more likely to shoot a police officer, whites represented over 50% of the people killed by police last years, and over 60% of those 18-yrs old and under. So I’m not sure what their going on about, regarding blacks not having justice?

    Race relations are bad because of blacks, because as we’ve seen in Baltimore, Milwaukee, and Charlotte whites are targeted by black racist simply because their skin color. Even before these riots, blacks were mobbing whites at state fairs and participating in “knock out” attacks that killed several white people for years. I wish a politician would actually talk about this.

    Another thing is that FBI crime statistics show that blacks are 2x more likely to kill a white person than reverse, and if you look at other serious violent crimes the chances of a white being a victim of black rape, robbery, or assault are far higher. It’s not even in the same ballpark when you look at crime statistic, yet the media is absolutely silent on these important issues, but yet whines about blacks killed in confrontations with police.

    Race relations are bad because of black racist, because blacks think they can murder others and expect that person not to act in self-defense. Race relations aren’t bad because of whites. It’s not whites rioting and attacking blacks, it’s not whites marching around screaming black power, and it’s not whites being narsistic little pricks thinking our lives are better than anyone else.

  9. 840 Trump choked: At the last question Trump should have said, “Not if you pull the same crookedness rigging as you did with Bernie Sanders”
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    Just now

  10. I guess in looking at the glass as half-full it was better that Trump lose this one than the last two. Trump is working with powerful themes and has the truth on his side. His poor execution does not change the basic truth of positions, but he failed miserably in his most important task which was looking presidential by normie standards.

    What Trump doesn’t have is a lifetime of experience in this format going up against world class liars and equivocators like Hillary Clinton. She was smug all night because she probably never imagined Trump would step into literally every trap, while also committing major factual errors that would have all of us talking about Alzheimer’s if Hillary made them.

    You can’t just walk into something like this cold. There is a reason she is the first choice for the most powerful people in the world, a reason she is where she is. She was in element tonight with rapier like attacks based on focus-group tested lines. She did a good job keeping Trump on the defensive while bringing out his stock word salads and blowhard side. No spinning this. Time to move to rounds 2 and 3.

  11. I couldn’t get past Lester Holt opening the debate with the Obama fiction that the economic growth has been wonderful and the lie that personal income has increased. Zero Hedge has proved that the Obama government’s claim that income increased in 2015 is based on faulty data.

  12. It is so irritating to watch that witch spout off. She has the gall to lecture anyone on security issues? The world is getting schlonged because of the Muslim situation which she was largely responsible for and yet wants to bring more of those koranimals into our country.

    Seriously, I hope an illegal spic, koranimal or africoon offs her sorry azz.

    That would be fitting.

  13. Guys the Normie reaction isn’t as bad as we think. And Hillary did not do as well. Her followers are gonna love it. But Normies….we had very high expectations.
    Tweet to him .Best times are 2AM or 6AM. He reads Tweets

  14. Holt “Donald Trump why are you a racst sexist tyrant”?

    Holt “Hillary, what’s your grandbaby’s favorite stuffed toy”?

  15. I only caught the last few minutes and then highlights on local Chicago news.

    I thought Trump did fine.

    Trump hammered Hillary on NAFTA, on her making stupid foreign policy decisions that resulted in the rise of ISIS.

    Also Trump pushed a very popular foreign policy theme. Making other countries pay for their defense – we can’t be the world’s policeman and pay everyone else’s defense when we have huge debts.

    Saudi Arabia is rich, why can’t they pay for their defense?

    Trump responds well to Clinton’s attack that he doesn’t release his tax returns.

    Trump comes back.

    “Yes I will release my tax returns against my attorney’s strong advice not to as soon as Mrs. Clinton releases the 3,000 private e-mails she deleted.”

    I thought Trump looked great.

    The moderator tried to trick Trump in to saying something “Sexist” that Mrs. Clinton didn’t look like a stable president. Trump didn’t go for the trick that women can’t be trusted to lead in politics, instead he said she’s not tough enough to negotiate tough trade deals like he does.

    Great performance.

    • Nah. Bad points; Trump kept taking every piece of bait she threw at him and got defensive. He went on tangents. OK. As Lew wrote, Hillary is a BRILLIANT liar. She’s very good at what she does. And, as Lew also noted, she’s done her worst. She will pull the same stunts again and again. And keep smirking…
      Good points: Trump spoke with REAL passion He had the fire of Truth. I BELIEVE his anger over her terrible history. And no one gives a flying one gives a flying one about taxes.

      • It’s possible that sexual dynamics are going to be a factor. This reminded me of several ambushes Sprung on me by a shit testing ex.

        Men do not enjoy this.

        It also had the Cuck experience baked in with Holt going “don’t hit your bitch”…could play out crazy.

  16. She looked too smug. I suspect to millions of Americans she reminded them of that bit*h in high school who thought she was better than you and it was beneath her stature to talk to you. She did not do as well as I expected nor did Trump do as bad as I feared. He missed a golden opportunity when they asked him what he would do about cyber security and he should have said when he was president he would make sure his secretary of state used her assigned server.

    • Had a gal like that in school. Her name was Alice Anne Moore. She was a pseudointellectual who looked like Woody Allen with long, blond hair and titts. Same thick, black glasses, too.

    • Tracy Flick.

      Also she’s the wife who brings home a nig and the husband disturbs the depravity.

      Thank you Holt!

  17. The supreme irony. The street Bolsheviks and Lenin’s useful idiots who support Clinton, don’t realise that she’s a member and tool of the class they hate. Stupid, pseudointellectual fops.

  18. Robbie Burns,

    Hey asshole, you snarked at one of my comments below. I’m always open up sincere criticism. What exactly is your point?

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