Here’s a link to an excellent analysis of the 2012 election by Steve Sailer:
“Here are some other north central states where Romney came fairly close:
Pennsylvania: 54 percent of the white vote
Iowa: 48 percent
WI 49 percent
Minnesota 47 percent
Michigan 53 percent
Romney couldn’t get the job done in these northern states, not because of the tidal wave of Hispanics, but because he just didn’t get enough whites to show up and vote for him.”
If Whites in the Lower North and Midwestern states (48% to 54%) voted Republican at the same rate as Whites in Upper South states (66% to 71%), then Mitt Romney would have easily won the 2012 election.
Romney barely won North Carolina. He lost Virginia and Florida. That’s because he only got a pathetic 61% of the White vote in Virginia, 61% of the White vote in Florida, and 68% of the White vote in North Carolina.
The Republican share of the White vote in these three Southern states is their lowest share of the White vote anywhere in the South – unless you count Maryland as a Southern state, where Romney only got 56% of the White vote.
Romney lost the 2012 election because Northern White transplants in NOVA/Hampton Roads, the Research Triangle, and the I-4 Corridor in Central Florida are turning Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida into another Maryland. He also lost because he couldn’t get White voters in Pennsylvania and the Midwest to vote like Whites in Kentucky, Tennessee, and West Virginia.
The most important reason Romney lost the 2012 election though is because the Northeastern phalanx delivered all 112 of their electoral votes to Obama within minutes of each other on election night. The “Hispanic vote” is a sideshow compared to the Yankee vote in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and the West Coast and the enclaves (think Boulder, Asheville, Austin, Missoula, Jackson (WY), Cary, etc.) it has established in the South and West.
The Yankee vote is why states like Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania vote Democrat where there are lots of White rural conservatives there who otherwise vote like the Whites in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Western Iowa, Pennsyltucky, and Southern Illinois and Southern Ohio are reliably and predictably Republican because Yankees aren’t predominant in those areas in contrast to Eastern Iowa, Philadelphia, Chicagoland, and Cleveland and the Western Reserve.
If you look at the county level map of the Western states, you can see a massive divide between the Whites who live in the coastal and inland Pacific Northwest and those who live in coastal and inland California. Once again, the Whites who live in the coastal areas are responsible for tipping those states into the Democrat column.
This division in the White vote, not the “Hispanic vote,” is why the Democrats are winning presidential elections – the effect of minorities is simply to augment and nullify White Republican voters, but it is not sufficient by itself to, say, to elect non-Whites to statewide offices outside of extreme cases like Hawaii.
American politics can be summed up as one group of Whites based in the Northeast, Upper Midwest, and West Coast aligning themselves with non-Whites to gain an electoral advantage over a rival group of Whites who are based in the South, Interior West, and the Lower North.