Here’s a roundup of the interesting stuff on the web this morning:
(1) Medicaid spending on the Black Undertow is breaking the fiscal backs of the states. In Louisiana, we saw that 67.5 percent of the Obama stimulus on BRA’s Recovery was spent on four things: Medicaid, TANF welfare, EBT cards, and Head Start.
The “stimulus” money is running out now. This year it has forced the states to spend 29 percent more on Medicaid. More than half the states are expecting budget shortfalls in their Medicaid programs as enrollment increases and stimulus funds fade out. The last dose of stimulus crack from Congress came in June.
“We’re on an unsustainable path,” said Mike Schrimpf, communications director for the Republican Governors Association. “Every year Medicaid takes up a greater share of most state budgets. … Every dollar spent on Medicaid necessarily comes out of somewhere else, so it’s taking away from every other item in the budget.”
Every dollar that comes out of your wallet that is spent on Medicaid for the Black Undertow is squandered. It comes out of public education for your children and police protection from black criminals.
The game plan is to lie to Pennsylvania voters in places like Pittsburgh and Scranton to keep losses among the White working class in the Rust Belt at manageable levels (a 2008 level, not a 2010 level) to the win the 2012 election.
A recent CNN poll found that nearly half of White working class Democrats don’t want Obama as their standard bearer in 2012. Surely, the Republicans will respond to this opportunity by redoubling their outreach to African-Americans who according to the latest Pew Survey are planning to vote 97 to 3 for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney.
The Edsall story about Democrats explicitly abandoning the White working class has gone viral over Twitter and Facebook.
(3) Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics debunks the wishful thinking among progressives that changing demographics will save Obama in 2012.
- Obama has a 33 percent approval rating with White voters. This means he is losing both the White working class and upscale college educated Whites by large margins.
- In order to win reelection, Obama has to raise his approval rating among White voters by one percentage point every month from now to the 2012 election, or the Republicans have to nominate someone so unacceptable that White voters will hold their nose and vote for Obama.
- The Hispanic share of the electorate has stagnated at 8 percent over the last four election cycles.
- Because of the declining economy, Hispanic immigration has declined from previous levels. It may have even reversed as Hispanics in America are returning to Mexico to wait out the Obama depression.
- The increase in the non-White share of the vote was driven by African-Americans, not Hispanics. From 2004 to 2008, the black vote rose from 9 to 11 percent of the electorate to a record high of 13 percent.
- African-Americans and Hispanics are demoralized and Obama’s approval rating has dropped considerably with both groups. He is actually underwater with Hispanics.
- White voters are furious with Obama. The polls show that he is losing every White subdemographic. He has suffered the biggest decline in his approval rating among White Millennials.
What is the endgame here?
The bottom line is that Obama’s support among White voters has cratered everywhere. In the North and West, he is losing White working class voters in droves. In the South, the Democrats have suffered catastrophic losses among White voters.
The Whites who are sticking with Obama are demoralized DWL progressives in The Left Coast, Upper Midwest, and the Northeast; the Jews, of course; White homosexuals; single mothers and college educated women who are feminists; and public sector employees and the lumpenproletariat who are dependent upon the government and have no other realistic options.
This creates a huge opportunity for Republicans to exploit in Lower North states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, and Iowa where White working class voters exist in greater numbers than elsewhere. The Buffalo to Fargo corridor is where Democrats suffered huge losses among White voters in the 2010 midterm elections.
If Obama is defeated in the 2012 election, the defeat will be inflicted upon him by disillusioned White voters on Northern soil.