Another prediction which will probably make a fool out of me: we could very well end up with TWO economically moderate parties as a result of the block of swing voters that may be described in shorthand as economically left, culturally right.— Inez Stepman ????? (@InezFeltscher) May 20, 2021
An influx of working class voters tips the balance against, but does not displace, traditional GOP economics. Think along the lines of “small business and low taxes good, Amazon and Google bad and trust bust worthy.” Hence, a more economically moderate, but not left-wing GOP.— Inez Stepman ????? (@InezFeltscher) May 20, 2021
At same time, due to cultural wokeism + rising anti-corporate sentiment in GOP, corps – w/ closed door influence & ?- are flooding to the Dems. Having recently rejected Sanders socialism for economically neolib ish Biden, the party is poised to accept that shift with open arms.— Inez Stepman ????? (@InezFeltscher) May 20, 2021
If I am right, we’ve seen socialism peak in the Democratic Party already between 2016-2020, and it’s now on its way down. The indications that I’m right will be watching AOC turn up the culture war to 11 and quietly start to offload some of her most radical economic positions.— Inez Stepman ????? (@InezFeltscher) May 20, 2021
Thus, ironically, what could emerge as a consequence of a big socially left, culturally right voting bloc could very well be TWO economically moderate parties, divided strongly on the culture war.— Inez Stepman ????? (@InezFeltscher) May 20, 2021
QED. Feel free to lock in a few years when I’m completely wrong.
There is a lot to digest here.
As we have pointed out a hundred times now, the electorate has resorted over the past 15 years or so with the overall effect being that the Republican Party has become more working class while the Democrats have become more professional class. The Republican strategy is to attract working class Democrats on the basis of culture war issues while the Democratic strategy is to attract wealthy Republican suburban voters on the basis of culture war issues. Both parties are achieving their goals over time.
“A growing number of working-class voters were drawn to Donald Trump’s Republican Party, and now top Republicans are searching for ways to keep those voters in the fold without Trump on the ballot.
“All of the statistics and polling coming out of the 2020 election show that Donald Trump did better with those voters across the board than any Republican has in my lifetime since Ronald Reagan,” Rep. Jim Banks, R-Ind., told NPR. “And if Republicans want to be successful as a party, win the majority in 2022, win back the White House in 2024, I think we have to learn lessons that Donald Trump taught us and how to appeal to these voters.”
Since 2010, the most significant growth in the Republican coalition has been white voters without a college degree — an imperfect but widely used metric to quantify the working-class voting bloc — along with some marginal growth among similarly educated Black and Hispanic voters. Banks believes the only winning path forward for the GOP is to reimagine itself permanently as the party of working-class America. …”
I do believe in the efficacy of earnest opinion journalism.
I’ve been around for a very long time. I don’t think our efforts on that front have been futile. I think the public is gradually coming around to our point of view on a whole range of issues which is the reason why we are dealing with the censorship crisis. It seems to have accelerated over the past year.
As Julius Krein points out though, the problem is not really the voters or the public. The stumbling bloc is conservative elites and Republican elites. The Republican electorate has become friendlier to our brand our politics. The triumph of “far right domestic extremism” is lamented by the political establishment which is resorting to draconian measures to cling to power. You could say the money situation has improved and Republican politicians are less reliant on corporate donors. You could even say an elite consensus is slowly, but surely developing on how to move forward. The party is moving away from Liz Cheneyism.
In spite of all this though, the Republican Congress operates on a different wavelength. They are doing things like declaring the 2017 tax cuts are a line in the sand. They are competing with each other to see who can be the most slavishly subservient to the Israel Lobby. They went to the mat and lost the Senate over $600 stimulus checks. They will slam Woke Capital and Big Tech, but draw the line at really doing anything about the problem. Mitch McConnell slammed the premature withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan. They refuse to even consider taxing Wall Street to fund infrastructure.
There is a lot to be optimistic about … EXCEPT for Republican politicians and meaningful policy changes. They are unwilling to change to adapt their agenda to the needs of their populist voters. This is the reason why they lost the last two elections to the Democrats. They owned themselves.
“Since the end of the Cold War—and Ronald Reagan’s presidency—Republicans have won only one of eight presidential popular votes (George W. Bush’s narrow win in 2004). Republican candidates of course won two additional electoral college victories during this period: George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016. On the whole, however, it is increasingly doubtful whether the GOP as presently constructed is capable of winning a national popular vote, or if it is even trying to do so. Today, the party essentially has no positive policy agenda, garners little support among America’s leading corporations in Silicon Valley or on Wall Street and is almost completely marginalized from academia, Hollywood, and mainstream media.
Despite these obstacles, both of Donald Trump’s campaigns revealed possible paths back to national majorities. In 2016, Trump broke the Democrats’ “blue wall” in the Upper Midwest. In 2020, he made significant inroads among nonwhite working-class voters, demonstrating that any “demographic destiny” predictions may be less certain than previously thought. Nevertheless, the Trump administration was too chaotic and incoherent to consolidate any larger “populist” realignment. …
These problems are not merely issues of “communication,” the perennial response of DC consultants. Nor are they simply matters of ideology or even policy. At bottom, the Republican Party faces what might be called a crisis of constituency: the party in its current form cannot serve the constituencies it has, much less those it would need to assemble an electoral majority. …
Outside the “establishment,” a number of conservative activists are now insisting that they will fight the culture wars “for real” this time, unlike the purported milquetoasts of previous generations. Yet while it may be true that establishment social conservatives—such as Princeton professor Robert P. George—have been laughably ineffective, there is little reason to believe that posting some more vitriolic essays on the internet will make much of a difference at this point. Ironically, it is the most radical firebrands of the American Right, hoping to “red pill” an imaginary silent majority, who are the most naïve believers in the efficacy of earnest opinion journalism. …”
This was a good segment.
Why do the Republicans have such a stupid and unpopular position on health care? Why can’t they moderate their agenda on a few key issues and win over cross-pressured Independents?