Important data out today from Catalist.— Matt Bruenig (@MattBruenig) May 10, 2021
In 2020, the majority of Trump voters were women and people of color. Women and people of color are making up an increasing share of Republican voters. pic.twitter.com/r1cgRMynkQ
More important insights from today’s Catalist data release. Trump increased his margins with all race+gender groups except white men. Women of color were the most swayed by Trump’s style of governing. pic.twitter.com/dsmqb0oSJd— Matt Bruenig (@MattBruenig) May 10, 2021
The new Catalist data seems to line up with my theory that all the Big Think about the 2016 election was mistaken. Trump did not do any better than usual (in fact slightly worse). It’s just that hillary did way worse than usual, with the balance heading to third parties. pic.twitter.com/XMVcrFvQF5— Matt Bruenig (@MattBruenig) May 10, 2021
Things are shifting below these headline numbers (e.g. in 2020, support for Trump became blacker, browner, and more female) but the basic story of Trump’s 2016 victory is just that Hillary was a remarkably bad candidate.— Matt Bruenig (@MattBruenig) May 10, 2021
Biden did better with white voters (both college and non-college) and worse with Black/Latin/Asian. pic.twitter.com/J7aHkVaYq6— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) May 10, 2021
Some of the long awaited voter file studies on the 2020 election which are more accurate than exit polls are finally starting to come out. How did our hot takes measure up?
“In the days and weeks after presidential election results come in, commentators attempting to figure out what happened with voter demographics are often in a fog — forced to rely on unreliable exit polls. More rigorous analysis simply takes longer.
Now, Catalist, a Democratic data firm, has put out a report on “What Happened in 2020,” authored by Yair Ghitza and Jonathan Robinson, which makes a serious attempt to answer that question. The report is superior to the exit polls because it’s based in their research for what’s known as a “voter file.” Basically, they’ve put together a large database of turnout information about actual voters, assembled from state or local records about who actually showed up. …
Some of their general findings about what changed since 2016:
Biden’s share of votes by Latinos decreased by 8 percentage points compared to Hillary Clinton’s, and his share of votes by Black people decreased by 3 percentage points.
Biden’s share of white voters without a college degree improved about 1 percentage point as compared to Clinton.
Biden’s share of white voters with a college degree improved by about 4 percentage points from Clinton’s. …
But it’s also worth dwelling on a shift that didn’t happen in 2020 but could have been crucial — it looks like Trump did not continue to gain among white voters without a college degree. According to Catalist’s report, 36 percent of these voters supported Clinton, a 4-point drop from Obama’s performance in 2012. But Democrats did not continue to hemorrhage these voters in 2020 — Biden actually improved slightly, winning 37 percent of them. …
So the fact that Biden avoided Democrats’ recent trend of losing more and more white voters without a college degree was actually quite important in his victory. If he had won, say, 34 percent of them instead of the 37 percent he did win, he very well might not be president right now. …
But the below chart makes the point that non-college whites actually still make up an estimated 32 percent of overall votes cast for Biden. In comparison, Black and Latino voters together also comprised 32 percent of the overall votes for Biden. More than half the Trump coalition, in contrast, is comprised of non-college-educated white voters (and Trump’s coalition is 85 percent white overall). …”
As anyone could see from looking at the election results, Joe Biden performed better with college-educated suburban Whites, significantly worse with Hispanics and marginally worse with blacks and Asians. Trump failed to build on his 2016 margin with the White working class.
85% of Trump voters were White Americans. 58% of Trump voters were White working class voters. 61% of Joe Biden voters were White Americans. 32% of Biden voters were White working class voters. Joe Biden won as many White working class voters as he won black and Hispanic voters combined. And yet, the focus of the corporate media has been exclusively on Joe Biden’s debt to POC voters.
“Based on our analysis to date, the following are our 10 big takeaways for election results for the top-of-the-ticket presidential race. We’ll return to the Senate, House and other down-ballot elections in future reports in this series.
But before we dig in, we want to emphasize that no one has perfect, certain knowledge about the electorate. The fact that someone has voted is a matter of public record, but how we vote is private. Therefore, these data points are all estimates, based at least partly on survey data and statistical modeling. In our own work, we compare our results to other data sources, and we encourage readers to do the same. …”
The Jared Kushner strategy was to 1.) take the White working class vote for granted and 2.) focus intensely on winning the black vote. Trump netted 3% more of the black vote which was made up for by elevated black turnout. “Defund the Police” was the reason why Trump won more minorities.
Donald Trump lost the 2020 election because of White Indies and White moderates. He lost both kinds of moderates. He lost the Never Trumpers or the Liz Cheney types in the wealthy suburbs who always hated him. He lost college-educated White suburban voters because of how he handled COVID. Finally, he lost people like us who were exhausted with his act. That’s who didn’t show up.
If it hadn’t been for Jared Kushner, I think Trump could have still squeaked out of victory. He had no strategy for expanding his share of the White working class vote. If he had only marginally improved his performance with White Indies in the swing states, he would be the president today.
Saager Enjeti makes an excellent point which is that affluent, college-educated White progressives who have modernist, cosmopolitan and antiracist values and who despise the White working class – the Democratic Independent Liberal Elites (DILEs) or woke progressives – are the people who run the Democratic Party even though White working class voters outnumber them in Joe Biden’s coalition. Even a modest shift on economic policy or especially health care combined with a stronger stance on “far right” culture issues would be sufficient to turn the Democrats into New Labour.