This is my “2016 Election in a nutshell” table pic.twitter.com/wEz1kwfqOE— (((David Shor))) (@davidshor) October 20, 2019
The Democrats are still arguing over why “Latinx” voters shifted toward Trump in the 2020 election. They analyze everything in terms of identity boxes.
“Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters were apparent in preelection polling (even if the magnitude of those gains was not). In October, the New York Times entertained the theory that Hispanic men were driving this trend, as Trump appealed to their “machismo culture.” And on one level, the election results are consistent with that hypothesis: In absolute terms, Trump performed better with Latinos than Latinas.
But Equis’s polling suggests that between 2016 and 2020, Trump gained far more ground with Hispanic women:
David Shor told me that he has observed the same trend in his own data. And he argues that the concentration of Trump’s gains among Latinas is consistent with his hypothesis that “defund the police” influenced Hispanic voting behavior since, in his polling, women rank crime as a more important issue than men do. A connection this tenuous seems unlikely to persuade the unconverted. For its part, Equis offers no firm theory on why Latinas in particular shifted right. Its report also neither affirms nor rebuts the notion that the heightened salience of policing played a role in the broader shift among Hispanic voters. …”
My own personal theory is that the difference between White working class voters and most “Latinx” voters is exaggerated. The black/White divide is far greater than the Hispanic/White divide or Asian/White divide. The White working class and Hispanic working class divide is also smaller.
If you look at what White working class and Hispanic working class voters believe and want, you will find that they are motivated by many of the same issues. They are Democratic Leaning Working Class (DLWC) voters. There is a far more profound divide with Democratic elites.
What are their issue preferences in ranked order? This was from a few years ago, but the DLWCs valued health care, economy, Social Security, jobs and Medicare as their top issues. This category includes both White and Hispanic Democratic leaning working class voters. In contrast, the DILEs don’t care nearly as much about issues like the economy and jobs because they are affluent professionals. Thus, it is not surprising that Trump’s strength on the economy attracted “Latinx” voters.
I’ve seen no evidence that “Latinx” voters identify with blacks and political correctness as much as upper middle class, college-educated White liberals do. Quite the opposite.