Between 2016 and 2020, Democrats saw a 43% decline in their support from conservative Hispanics.— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) March 10, 2021
Trump also narrowed the gap among moderate and liberal Hispanics. https://t.co/WAHpweEKs4
The Democrats are worried.
The status quo has been extreme polarization and gridlock. White libs have been the dominant force in the Democratic Party. White conservatives have been the dominant force in the Republican Party. Respectively, the Solid Liberals and True Cons have been the governing wing of the two parties.
This is more or less the way it was until Trump with the two parties each holding up their end of the neoliberal consensus. Progressive liberalism was the ideology of the Democratic Party. Conservative liberalism was the ideology of the Republican Party. This left all the disaffected people who are dealigned and who were stuck in the vast middle growing angrier and angrier by the year.
Who was stuck in the disaffected middle? It was ethnocentric White moderates, black conservatives, Hispanic conservatives, black and Hispanic moderates. It is the Democratic Leaning Working Class (DLWC) voters who are ideologically more conservative and moderate than liberal.
The Democrats are two parties with two agendas: the White upper middle class professional wing who have cosmopolitan and modernist values and who are the libs and who run the show and the Democrat working class voters who are White, Hispanic and black and who are less affluent and educated and much more moderate and conservative. Compare and contrast their issue priorities and voting patterns on issues like the economy, jobs, crime, taxes, climate change, environment, gay rights, gender equity and racial equality. There is a big disconnect between DILEs and DLWCs.
The libs all voted for Hillary and Joe.
They aren’t motivated by jobs, taxes or the economy. They are motivated by culture war issues and virtue signaling. The professional wing of the party is driven by self-actualization, status and esteem needs while the working class wing is driven by safety and physiological needs.
Trump has been luring disaffected working class Democrats away from the Democratic Party. He did this with White moderates in 2016 and Hispanic conservatives and moderates in the 2020 election. As David Shor has pointed out, Hispanic conservatives and moderates had been voting with White libs in spite of their difference in values until Black Lives Matter went wild last summer.
The political landscape has shifted since the 2016 election.
Groups which had previously been in the Center were kind of pushed away from the Democrats and crashed into the Right. This had the effect of pushing True Cons or Free Marketeers or Business Conservatives or whatever you want to call the Republican establishment voters off their pedestal and out of the Republican Party and into the Democratic Party where they have found common ground with Democrat establishment voters on class, education and virtue signaling about their shared cosmopolitan and modernist values. These new Democrats virtue signal about anti-racism and vote down tax increases. The True Cons voters are becoming Democrats along with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
Thomas Edsall is concerned about this trend. What happens when the brats come to power and polarize, alienate and narrow the appeal of the Democrats which is their sole talent in life? Can the next generation of progressive elites rule the Democrats like the New York Times newsroom? Now that the True Cons or Free Marketeers have bounced and become Democrats, what would happen if the Republicans moderated their economic agenda to appeal to more of these disaffected working class voters?
“In the wake of the 2020 election, Democratic strategists are worried — very worried — about the future of the Hispanic vote. One in 10 Latinos who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 switched to Donald Trump in 2020.
Although the Hispanic electorate is often treated as a bloc, it is by no means a monolith. It is, in fact, impossible to speak of “the Hispanic vote” — in practice it is variegated by region, by country of origin, by ideology, by how many generations have lived in the United States, by depth of religiosity (and increasingly denomination), as well as a host of other factors.
From 1970 to 2019, the number of Latinos in the United States increased from 9.6 million to 60.6 million, according to Pew Research. The number is projected by the census to reach 111.2 million, or 28 percent of the nation’s population, by 2060.
Public Opinion Strategies, which conducts surveys for NBC News/Wall Street Journal, provided me with data on presidential voting from 2012 to 2020 that show significant Republican gains among the roughly 30 percent of Black and Hispanic voters who self-identify as conservative. …
The changes in voting and partisan allegiance, however, were significantly larger for self-identified Hispanic conservatives. Their presidential vote went from 49-39 Democratic in 2012 to 67-27 Republican in 2020. Their partisan allegiance over the same period went from 50-37 Democratic to 59-22 Republican. …
The 2020 expansion of Republican voting among Hispanics and Asian-Americans — and to a lesser extent among African-Americans — deeply concerns the politicians and strategists seeking to maintain Democratic control of the House and Senate in 2022, not the mention the White House in 2024.
The defection of Hispanic voters, together with an approximately 3 point drop in Black support for Joe Biden compared with Hillary Clinton, threatens a pillar of Democratic competitive strength, especially among Black men: sustained high margins of victory among minority voters whose share of the population is enlarging steadily. …”
What if the “Latinx” male voters were repelled by Mitt Romney-style True Conservatism and especially by Black Lives Matter, but warmed to a more populist and nationalist message?
David Shor said it would be very bad for the Democrats to continue polarizing the country along the lines of class, education and ideology while decreasing racial polarization. White libs don’t have the electoral juice on their own to rule. It is necessary to hyperventilate about “white supremacy” and exaggerate the threat posed by Trump voters in order to slow down this trend.
Note: Thomas Frank has a good take below on how the True Cons or Free Marketeer voters in Johnson County, KS all became Biden voters.