Is there a path opening or closing for Joe Biden?
Joe used budget reconciliation to pass this one bill which has the support of 70% of the public. Why would White working class Republicans and Independents oppose a bill which gives them $1,400 and the new child tax credit? Since when did Trump’s populist voters believe in True Conservatism?
“(CNN) – The Republican Party’s inability to ignite a grassroots backlash against the $1.9 trillion Democratic Covid relief bill moving toward final passage underscores the GOP’s transformation into a coalition energized primarily by cultural and racial grievance — and the opportunity that opens for President Joe Biden to advance his economic priorities.
Although every House and Senate Republican voted against the rescue plan, it has not generated anything like the uprisings against new government spending and programs that engulfed Democratic Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama during each man’s first year in office. Indeed, throughout the legislative fight, congressional Republicans and conservative media outlets like Fox News appeared more interested in focusing attention on peripheral cultural issues, like whether Dr. Seuss had become a victim of liberal “cancel culture.”
That stress on cultural complaints reflects the shifting source of motivation inside the GOP coalition, with fewer voters responding to the warnings against “big government” once central to the party’s appeal and more viscerally responding to alarms that Democrats intend to transform “our country,” as former President Donald Trump often calls it, into something culturally unrecognizable. …”
The people who oppose Joe’s COVID relief bill are older, upper income fiscal conservatives. These people are the True Cons or Free Marketeers. It is the National Review crowd.
Look at it this way: I endorsed Warnock and Ossoff after Mitch McConnell couldn’t say “yes” to giving us our $2,000. After Warnock and Ossoff won, this meant the Democrats had the votes in the Senate to use budget reconciliation to advance things populist voters supported anyway.
They are giving us $1,400 and the child tax credit and will probably pass an infrastructure bill with their second chance to use budget reconciliation. They don’t have the votes to pass anything else though which we don’t support like HR 1, the Equality Act, the George Floyd Act, the Biden amnesty, etc. The difference between them controlling and not controlling the Senate was only us getting our $2,000.
It is better for Democrats to control the Senate with a 50 vote majority than Republicans. By controlling the House and Senate, Democrats are under more pressure to pass a progressive agenda, which means when nothing else happens for the next two years it will blackpill their base. Also, the $1,400 stimulus check and the child tax credit will prove to be massively popular, which advances the cause of economic populism. It will put more intense pressure on Republicans to change their antiquated economic agenda. There is a good chance that stimulus checks and the child tax credit will become permanent.
As the progressive agenda stagnates under Neoliberal Joe, the temperature will rise among Disaffected Democrats, particularly if Democrats end up losing the House or Senate in the 2022 midterms. Meanwhile, it will become increasingly evident that populist voters aren’t divided on economics. Republicans are divided on economics. It is already clear as day now in the polling.
The GOP is currently about halfway through a major shift in identity. It has gone from a conservative coalition (2012) to a conservative-populist coalition (2017) to a conservative-populist coalition that is split 70/30 and 50/50 on social identity and economics (2021). It clearly tilts toward the populist side now. By 2025, it will be a populist coalition on both identity and economics.
Note: Democrats laugh about the focus on Dr. Seuss, but it makes sense when you realize that line of attack is more popular and resonates with a wider audience for Republicans than the True Cons economic policy agenda.