Julius Krein: Donald Trump’s Influence Will Evaporate When He Leaves Office

This is a bold prediction.

Julius Krein is betting that Republican voters will tire of the Trump reality television show and move on from his failed presidency to more compelling candidates in 2024.

The Guardian:

“Donald Trump’s refusal to concede the election has fueled intense speculation about his post-presidency: will he start a new conservative cable network? Will he act as a kingmaker in the Republican party? Will he run for president again in 2024?

Underlying all of these rumors is the assumption that Trump will continue to hold sway over a significant voter base. But this is by no means assured. It seems just as likely that, over time, Trump’s trajectory will land him closer to associates like Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani – hosting a middling podcast and hawking branded merchandise while trying to fend off prosecution. …

First, after one term in office, it is clear that the Republican establishment changed Trump more than he changed the party. Although his administration’s policy record is a mixed bag, the shift in rhetoric over four years was unmistakable. Attacks on hedge fund managers and pharma executives became rarer and rarer, replaced with praise for tax cuts, cheering on the Dow, bashing “socialism” and lauding supreme court appointments. To be sure, arguments can be made for all of these things, at least among conservatives, but they are arguments that Ted Cruz or even Jeb Bush could make, albeit less theatrically. Of late, Trump’s combativeness has focused almost exclusively on allegations of election fraud and cringe-inducing self-pity; most people are already tuning it out. …

Trump’s 2016 victory proved the concept that Republican voters are tired of zombie Reaganism, but his presidency did almost nothing to reorient Republican institutions and donors, which supported his administration out of convenience, not conviction. Despite four years in office, Trump built essentially no new long-term infrastructure or donor networks that could sustain a distinctive and lasting political movement, even one centered entirely around himself. …”

Obviously, the populist voters who originally supported him in 2016 were already tired of him before the 2020 election. If that were not the case, he would have easily won reelection. He won conservatives by a landslide in 2020. Those were generally the people who voted for other candidates.

Will the populist and nationalist voters who backed Trump in 2016 still be persuadable in 2024? Will they bother voting in the Republican primaries in 2024? These people took a big gamble on Trump and got burned. It is far too early to say they will even still be around after four years of performance art “deficit hawks” in Congress like Pat Toomey and Ron Johnson continue to trash the image of the GOP.

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12 Comments

  1. Joe Biden is a figure head from the past.DC elites will decide the fate of this country that has no loyalty.

  2. I suspect that the Trump personality cult in both mainstream conservatism and alt-right adjacent circles will have a lot of staying power. There will be enough zombie Trumpism to make moving forward difficult.

    • We are about to get President Sepp Hindenbiden and I’d gather we will also see a caste including versions of Schliecher, Papen and…

    • Nikki Haley doesn’t want racists in the new Republican party during Trumps campaign worker a c*unt said “you have to understand White men are dying out” and how its racist to care about them anymore ? lol ok

  3. When they say Republicans are becoming the party of the “multiracial working class,” they don’t mean they will be doing anything to help the working class. They just mean that republicans will be giving money to the capital class and deregulating business so they can continue hiring illegal Guatemalan farm and meatpacking laborers, Indian IT visa workers, and Somalian refugee bus boys.

  4. I suspect Trump will spend the next 4 years collecting donations from magatards and hinting about a run in 2024 which never eventuates.

  5. “OH NO THEY USED THEIR STIMULUS TO PAY DOWN DEBT SOMEBODY DO SOMETHING!!!!!!!!!!!!”

    Is there a donation page for Johnson’s Democratic challenger in 2022? If so I know where my $600 is going

  6. Trump will spend the rest of his life fighting off lawsuits and sexual harassments suits. Don’t be surprised when he leaves the county for good.

    • Looks like National Vanguard is promoting the Zionist Republican Stop The Steal grift. Pierce would be rolling in his grave.

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