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My theory of why Trump lost the election is correct.

Joe Biden won five states that voted for Trump in the 2016 election: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia. In all five states, it was White voters who elected Joe Biden. The black vote and Hispanic vote either moved toward Trump or remained about the same. The 2020 electorate was whiter in these states than the 2016 electorate. Basically, it was a contest between angry White people and Joe Biden energized Whites who were anti-Trump while Trump deflated his populist base. The Democrats ran on the anti-Sailer Strategy. Donald Trump ran on the Jared Kushner strategy.

There is one glaring pattern that stands out in the exit polls. Donald Trump consolidated the Right and expanded his appeal to conservatives and Republicans. He lost tremendous ground in the Center with Moderates and Independents. He was leaking the support of White voters in the Center and trying to replace them with based blacks, Hispanics and winning more of the conservative and Republican vote. The final result looked like Mitt Romney’s losing coalition in 2012. The fact that Trump managed to lose Independent voters in Alabama while winning 97% of Republicans tells you something about how his brand changed between 2016 and 2020. He lost his appeal outside of the Right.

In Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the most dramatic movement toward Joe Biden occurred among working class and lower middle class Whites. The $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket swung +22 points toward Joe Biden in Michigan and +12 points in Wisconsin. It swung +5 points toward Joe Biden in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, the $50,000 to $100,000 income bracket swung +10 points toward Joe Biden. In Arizona, Joe Biden won the $50,000 to $75,000 income bracket by 9 points. These shifts reflect White Moderate and Independent voters who make less than $100,000 a year moving toward Joe Biden in the middle suburbs and rural areas. In big cities in the Rust Belt like Philadelphia, Cleveland, Chicago and Detroit where voter fraud is said to have occurred, he actually did better in the 2020 election.

In Georgia, the outcome was more complex than in the other four states. There was a significant movement among the White upper middle class and college-educated voters in the Atlanta suburbs toward Joe Biden. It was this combined with the decline in Trump’s margin in the $30,000 to $50,000 income bracket which proved fatal in that state. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter because Trump could have lost Georgia and comfortably won reelection by winning the other four states. The same dynamic was in play there though. Trump’s appeal to non-conservative White working class men in the Atlanta suburbs who are Independent voters declined by just enough to flip Georgia to Joe Biden.

The GOP succeeded in dragging Trump to the Right on economics to pass the Paul Ryan Better Way agenda. He was elected as a populist. He governed as a conservative and lost.

It was White voters in the middle suburbs and some rural areas who make less than $100,000 a year who are Independents and Moderates who didn’t come out in the same numbers for him in the 2020 election. It was almost certainly the financially strapped “Hard-Pressed Skeptic” voters.

These are people who are located in the very center of the electorate. They are 12% of the adult population. They are as numerous as the black population and roughly the size of the True Cons swath of the electorate. The GOP didn’t want to win the election by winning those voters though. The focus was entirely on winning miniscule numbers of based blacks with the Jared Kushner strategy by pandering to them on a host of issues from prison reform to the Platinum Plan. A billion dollars was spent on this nonsense. There are just as many ethnocentric Whites with nationalist and populist politics as blacks in this country. They are a far more persuadable group that is concentrated in the Rust Belt.

Winning?

The winning never stopped for MIGA and the result was Jexodus: the largest defeat for a Republican presidential candidate in the Jewish community in 20 years. The policy agenda was sold to Jewish billionaires who wanted all kinds of things even Jews don’t care about.

It could have been otherwise.

The fact that Donald Trump won 73 million votes in spite of all of these handicaps should be white pilling. If he had made the slightest effort to consolidate and expand his White populist base by delivering a policy agenda for them and hadn’t governed so poorly on issues like COVID-19, Trump would have easily held all five swing states and flipped Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire and Maine.

The 2020 election proves that Asians and Hispanics are amenable to backlash politics and that the toxic relationship between White liberals, the Far Left and blacks is splitting the Democratic Party. These groups moved away from the Democrats because of all the crime and violence. The Whites who moved away from Trump were just pissed off that he listened to Jared Kushner and didn’t do anything about it.

If the GOP could be less cucked on race, more moderate on economics and health care and less subservient to a tiny handful of Jewish billionaires, it could expand its appeal in the Center to Whites without alienating other groups. Instead, it prefers to run on goofy schemes like the Platinum Plan and cringe talking points like Dems R Real Racists and to die on the hill of White Millennials in the suburbs drowning in student loan debt. Naturally, this is asking far too much for the status quo to change on the Right. The GOP would rather have Charlie Kirk doing “Socialism Sucks” college tours and “Dems R Real Racists” and MIGA and have Lady MAGA speaking at CPAC and have the endorsement of Lil Wayne than win elections.

Long story short: if you give these people nothing on race or populism, they will vote on the basis of economics, which is likely what happened.

About Hunter Wallace 9705 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

25 Comments

  1. Yes and it’s pretty obvious that his supporters are all in denial that he lost Modetate voters. Trump is like God in the Republican Party and can do no wrong. Some people are pure crazy. Now he even talks smack about Fox News and Fox still worships him. Nothing but a cult. Weiß Leistung !

  2. Arizona went Biden because of the solid Navajo and Native vote.

    They had around 1000 deaths in a population of 85,000 on the reservation.

    • They are inbred morons. The reservations are packed with low IQ alcoholic people that were literally in the Stone Age just a couple centuries ago.

    • Not true. Arizona is full of liberal “retired” government workers and teachers, with big pensions. They all get a check from the government, so they can quit working at 45, and they don’t want the gravy train to ever stop. They move to Arizona from all over the country for their permanent vacation.

  3. Project Veritas is providing proof of election tampering along with louder with chowder finding dead people voting. The supreme court needs to throw out the election.

  4. White voters have shown, in many elections, that they will stay home or vote against incumbents in protest when they feel betrayed or ignored. This is true for the Bernie and Blompf base, as it was for those that despised Romney and Kerry. Neither uniparty wing seems to grasp that alienating people under the “where else can they go?” rubric is not a path to success with Whites. The other racial groups go with the gibs, and unthinkingly stick with the left. You would think the implications of that would be obvious to Recucks, and make them into a hardcore anti-immigration party just out of self-preservation, but as the Kochs, US CofC and their poisonous ilk own them, common sense isn’t their strong suit.

  5. “The final result looked like Mitt Romney’s losing coalition in 2012.”

    Yet! Romney lost due to his wacky Mormon beliefs that resulted in millions of White midwestern Evangelicals staying home on election day. Magical under-wear!

    In contrast Trump mobilized Evangelicals like never before and reinvigorated the Religious Right which had begun to wane during Shrubs two terms in office due to the loss of blood and treasure during the misbegotten neo-conservative war in Iraq. (A disaster that Biden voted for in the Senate it should be added!)

    • He more than voted for the war. He’s the loudest Senate voice on WMD in the late 90s and early 2000s. He’s got blood on his hands.

  6. Hunter Wallace’s message to Trump Republicans: “Cuck smarter, not harder.”

    Harold Covington’s message to Whites: “Throw off your chains, take up arms and create a White ethnostate.”

    • The first graph in the article says, “Black adults are more likely than other groups to see their race or ethnicity as central to their identity.” Yeah, because they are ALLOWED TO. We aren’t allowed to even recognize our own race. We aren’t allowed to assemble or even form groups, etc. Whites are the only group not allowed to base their identity on being white. Blacks get more money and free passes for doing so.

  7. HW is right, people ultimately voted based on economics, not appeals to flamboyant queers and based Negroes. Promoting a sound economic platform is how the NSDAP won the 1932 and ’33 elections, which of course were held during the nadir of the Depression. They were smart enough to downplay all their usual racial and jewish stuff.

    • Goebbels in Berlin wasn’t downplaying the jewbaiting. He was in a death match with the Jewish police commissioner.

  8. None of the pandering and offering of bribes was even necessary which is why Sam Francis was right on when he referred to the GOP as The Stupid Party. He made their classic mistake albeit louder and more clumsily; he dog-whistled to Whites and then he pandered and offered bribes to Non-Whites. All he had to do to cast a wider net was ignore race completely and concentrate on expanding the middle class.

    All he had to do was sign an executive order making E-verify mandatory, freezing all worker visas until employers could prove that they could not fill those positions and then forcing them to pay any Hindu replacements the same salary and benefits they had paid the people they replaced. NO pay cuts to brown scab replacements, because that’s exploitation. Then fine them out the wazoo and tariff their products if they don’t comply. A carrot-stick method could have been employed; the greater the percentage of Americans – not foreigners – that work for you, the lower your taxes. One hundred percent American filled – zero taxes and so on.

    He could have signed another executive order lifting wage-earning caps on any one who had been forced into early retirement or taking disability during the Great Recession. He could have also not penalized any welfare recipient whose teenaged children took jobs or who married someone with a job.

    And he could have pulled a fast one on both parties by signing an executive order writing off all student loan debt. Yes, little weasels like Ben Shapiro would have squealed like stuck pigs, but would have to suck it up, buttercup, after neither party demonstrated the stones to get a court judge to overturn it. Moreover, all Trump would have to point out in such an announcement is that those student loans had already been paid off, more than once by John and Jane Q Taxpayer with the “quantitative easings” and cash infusions paid to Wall Street and Banks Too Big To Fail.

    Finally, a single payer option on healthcare would have been very easy to furnish without the shock to the system that libertardians make it to be. This was done with the Medicare D prescription plan. FEDGOV paid for it and then private health insurance companies administrated it as prescription benefits management. There would be higher payroll taxes and probably a federal sales tax necessary to pay for it, but families wouldn’t end up bankrupted from medical bills and one could change jobs without either paying outrageous COBRA fees or trying to skate without insurance until they passed the new job’s probation.

    It is estimated that cash kept in the hands of the middle class gets recirculated several times generating even more jobs and more tax revenue. There are only so many super yachts the uber rich can buy before they simply stash their cash in the Cayman Islands. Yet people tend to not be as supportive of tax increases if they have achieved some material benefits themselves. Which is why you want to grow the middle class and make it possible for young Whites to join it. Otherwise those Starbucks baristas living in their parents’ basements because of student loan debt join Antifa and BLM. They are on the road to being modern-day Jacobins making a French-style revolution not only possible but probable in America. History may not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.

  9. Besides not building a real wall on the entire Southern border and shamelessly pandering to every other demographic except the white founding stock of this nation …

    Trump should have embraced the independent Heaphy report and pardoned all the political prisoners being held captive by the Commies in Charlottesville. Charlottesville was a setup. There were/are “good people” on both sides (actually only those on the Right) and in jail. The ones on the Left were anti-White, anti-South radical antifa, BLMers, Marxists, Communists, etc — the same violent terrorists (whom somehow are not even on the FBI’s radar) who attacked Trump’s people at his own rallies.

    Hey, Trump! Before you leave office whether in two months or four years from now, set the political prisoners the Left has captured in the past four years free. Just remember these radical Leftists may throw you in prison after you leave office.

    • Edit: “who somehow are not even on the FBI’s radar”

      PS: Over 70 million (Dominion/Smartmatic fudged vote count if that counts for anything at all) voted for the Lefties who seem to love to murder unborn children.

      The “count” of murdered unborn children since it became the “law” of the land is estimated to be over 60 million. So the number advocating murder and their victims of murder are now about equal. God could wipe out those 70 million murderers and those who support these murders and bring instant justice to our nation.

      Pray for instant justice. This nation needs it to cleanse itself from the innocent blood shed and to help turn this nation to righteousness.

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