Scot Olmstead uses FOX News/AP exit polls to draw a similar conclusion to my hot take based on CNN exit polls that the Jared Kushner strategy obviously backfired.
“The 2016 Presidential election results (remember them?) were a vindication of four people:
First, the incomparable Pat Buchanan, who ran for the presidency three times on an America First platform, championing the ideas that ultimately propelled the Trump campaign.
Buchanan was a prophet—a man of foresight, courage, and vision who loved his people and delivered a warning that went unheeded. Trump had the benefit of running in light of the damage and wreckage that Buchanan predicted.
Second, Samuel Francis, editor, columnist and essayist who long predicted the rise of “Middle American Radicals”, a phalanx of dispossessed white working-class voters yearning for a populist tribune.
Third, Steve Sailer, who has repeatedly argued that the GOP can still win national elections by maximizing the white vote. The “Sailer Strategy” was the playbook the Trumpists implicitly followed—in 2016.
Fourth, Ann Coulter, whose book Adios America seems to have been read in Trump’s orbit and provided much of the rhetorical ammunition for his immigration agenda—in 2016.
But four years later, pending the outcome of legal challenges raising legitimate questions about irregularities, anomalies and possible election fraud, we sit on the precipice of a Joe Biden presidency.” …”
David Cole expands on his previous take on the Failer Strategy.
“Chico has more registered Democrats than Republicans (but not by too much), and a reputation for being California’s version of a “swing state.” Four years ago, the city went solidly for Trump. It wasn’t even close. …
On Nov. 3, the people of Chico ousted the filthy progressives who’d made manure of their town. It was a blowout; the GOP handily retook the council.
At the same time, though, Chico went for Biden. There was no chicanery in Chico; no magic, no alchemy. No Democrat election fraud, no foreign vote-stealing machines. This is simply how the people voted, fair and square. Trump had them and he lost them. There was a local “red wave” that flowed right past the president without getting him even remotely wet.
So let’s stop talking about voter fraud for a moment, and analyze these actual votes from actual voters. …
That was Trump in 2016, when he won Chico handily. “Illegals are swarming the country; I see it. Third World nations are not sending their best; I see it. They’re committing crimes; I’m acknowledging it. And I’ll stem that flow.”
Trump won in 2016 because he noticed what the left insists we must never notice.
But somewhere along the line, he lost the thread. And as a result he lost towns like Chico. He turned on supporters like Ann Coulter, who tried to keep him centered on what mattered, on why he was elected in the first place. Of course, by this point it’s painfully obvious that Trump was ill served by those around him. But let’s keep the focus on his superfans, because the guy was ill served by them, too. Instead of holding the “God king’s” feet to the fire on the issues he ran on, his activist base grew increasingly detached from reality and increasingly distracted by flights of fancy that distanced them from the core issues that had appealed to voters in 2016. …”
Look at this.
Philadelphia swung toward Trump.
And here’s why I’m waiting for provisionals:— Ben Forstate (@4st8) November 17, 2020
Clinton 16: 584,025
Biden 20: 594,005
Trump 16: 108,748
Trump 20: 131,330
And the gap between the two will shrink further.
Chicago swung toward Trump.
2016 presidential results in Chicago, IL:— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 16, 2020
Clinton 912,943 (84%)
Trump 135,317 (12%)
2020 presidential results in Chicago, IL:
Biden 932,556 (83%)
Trump 179,278 (16%)
Detroit swung toward Trump.
2016 presidential results in Detroit, MI:— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 16, 2020
Clinton 234,871 (95%)
Trump 7,682 (3%)
2020 presidential results in Detroit, MI:
Biden 233,908 (94%)
Trump 12,654 (5%)
San Francisco swung toward Trump.
2016 presidential results in San Francisco, CA:— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 16, 2020
Clinton 345,084 (85%)
Trump 37,688 (9%)
2020 presidential results in San Francisco, CA:
Biden 375,630 (85%)
Trump 55,988 (13%)
Milwaukee remained flat.
2016 presidential results in Milwaukee, WI:— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 16, 2020
Clinton 188,653 (77%)
Trump 45,167 (18%)
2020 presidential results in Milwaukee, WI:
Biden 194,646 (79%)
Trump 48,413 (20%)
Cleveland swung toward Trump.
2016 presidential results in Cleveland, OH:— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 16, 2020
Clinton 123,768 (82%)
Trump 21,137 (14%)
2020 presidential results in Cleveland, OH:
Biden 106,960 (80%)
Trump 25,307 (19%)
Miami swung toward Trump big time.
Miami-Dade 2016: Clinton 624,146 (64%), Trump 34% (333,999)— Matt Holt (@mattholt33) November 18, 2020
Miami Dade 2020: Biden 617,864 (53%), Trump 532,833 (46%)
That's a 198,834 vote increase