How Georgia turned blue: Huge gains in the Atlanta suburbs make up for a decline in the Black share of the electoratehttps://t.co/GdEN57oNeZ— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 17, 2020
Biden compensated with huge gains in affluent and well-educated precincts pic.twitter.com/ZC93lsNWLX— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 17, 2020
As a result, Biden’s gains were concentrated in a ring around Atlanta pic.twitter.com/nY8yg9NblE— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 17, 2020
In the Full Haus podcast, we debated the mystery of what caused the decline in the White vote for Trump in the exit polls. Was it White Independent voters in the suburbs making less than $100,000 a year sitting out the election or flipping to Joe Biden or was it affluent, college educated Republican voters in the suburbs? Could it have been both? The answer clearly varies from state to state.
In Georgia, the upper middle class definitely flipped to Joe Biden.
+$100,000 Voters (32% of electorate) – 53% Biden, 46% Trump
+$100,000 Voters (32% of electorate) – 56% Trump, 42% Hillary
In Georgia, the upper middle class size of the electorate was static. It swung dramatically to Joe Biden. Trump won it by 14 points in 2016. He lost it by 7 points in 2020.
Conservatives (40% of electorate) – 86% Trump, 14% Biden
Conservatives (42% of electorate) – 85% Trump, 15% Hillary
In Georgia, the conservative share of the electorate shrank. Trump won about the same amount of conservatives.
Republicans (38% of electorate) – 94% Trump, 6% Biden
Republicans (36% of electorate) – 94% Trump, 4% Hillary
In Georgia, the Republican swath of the electorate slightly expanded. Joe Biden did 2 points better though with Republicans. The focus here was on Based Blacks and Hispanics. Trump’s Team won more of them but were killed in the Atlanta suburbs with college educated White men, Moderates and Independents.
In Georgia, we can now say:
- It was the upper middle class in the Atlanta suburbs
- It was Moderates and Independents
- It was the Obama-Trump voters
- It was seniors
- It was White college educated voters
It wasn’t blacks in Atlanta.
It wasn’t “demographics is destiny.”
Donald Trump did worse with all Whites in Georgia and staggeringly worse with White college educated men in the Atlanta suburbs. In the 2016 election, Trump crushed Hillary in the upper income bracket, 56% to 42%. In the 2020 election, the upper middle class went for Biden by 53% to 46%. He went from winning by 14 points to losing by 7 points. He could have won the state though by holding the Obama-Trump voters and for some reason he didn’t in 2020.
Note: Nick Fuentes and the Grift Right are coming to Atlanta to “Stop the Steal” in Buckhead and the Atlanta suburbs this week because the Platinum Plan only won +0.5% of the black vote in the blackest counties in Georgia for Trump. College educated White Millennials voted for Joe Biden because of student loan debt. He offered them something and so they voted for him.