In the last article, we saw how Donald Trump got creamed in the 2020 election in the Center with Independent voters. Who is over here on the left flank of the GOP?
For the past 30 years, the group of voters that is adjacent to the GOP in the Center of the electorate has been called the “Embittered” or “Disaffected” or “Hard-Pressed Skeptics” or in the Trump era the “Market Skeptic Republicans.” The other right-leaning swing group in the Center has gone by various names like “Upbeats” or “Libertarians” or “Young Outsiders” or “New Era Enterprisers.”
The “Disaffected” and “Upbeats” are moderates in opposite ways. The former are social conservatives who are moderate on economics. They are financially stressed White ethnocentric populists and nationalists. The latter are social liberals who are conservative on economics. They are libertarians. The “Upbeats” or “New Era Enterprisers” are pro-immigration, pro-globalism, anti-socialist, pro-homosexuality, etc. In other words, it isn’t unlike the difference between the Alt-Lite and the Alt-Right.
2/3rds of Americans say the economic system is tilted toward powerful interests. This includes 2/3rds of Independents. Republican-leaning Independents are divided on the issue.
Right leaning Indies are White men who tend to be Millennials and Gen Xers:
The Republicans are the “Core Conservatives” and “Country First Conservatives” with Right Indies more likely to be Market Skeptic Republicans and New Era Enterprisers:
Who didn’t show up for Donald Trump on the left flank in 2020? Was it the cultural libertarians or was it the nationalists and populists?
The Market Skeptic Republicans report far higher levels of ethnocentrism and financial stress.
Lets assume for the sake of argument that the following scenario played out in 2020: the “Core Conservatives” and “Country First Conservatives” showed up to vote for Trump along with the “New Era Enterprisers” (the “Upbeats” or “Libertarians” or “New Era Enterprisers.” The Jill Stein Green Party vote of Progressive activists and Gary Johnson vote of Left-Libertarians went for Joe Biden. The Hard-Pressed Skeptics who are mixed with White ethnonationalist Indies voted for Joe Biden.
Wouldn’t that look like a collapse in the downscale White male Indie vote?