Is this it Nick, your president Blumpf’s new army, a few Groypers and a hand full of College Republicans? ? https://t.co/YCZl2FMWCh— Hunter Wallace 5% (@MisterBlackPill) November 13, 2020
I outlined my theory last night on Full Haus.
It was White men who elected Donald Trump in the first place by rejecting Hillary Clinton in a landslide in 2016. It was a peculiar kind of White man who did it though.
In the 2016 election, Blumpf won 90% of Republicans and 81% of Conservatives. He performed better with the Right in the 2020 election. In the 2020 election, he won 94% of Republicans and 85% of Conservatives. Donald Trump won in the Center in 2016 and lost in 2020.
In the 2016 election, Donald Trump won Independents, 48% to 42%. He won 41% of Moderates to 52% for Hillary. He won 58% of the White vote to 37% for Hillary. He won men by 53% to 41% for Hillary. He won White college graduates by 49% to 45%. He won the White working class by 67% to 28%. He won White man in particular 62% to 31%. He won Americans making $50,000 to $100,000 by 46% to 49%. Indies were Trump by 4. Moderates were Hillary by 9. Whites were Trump by 21. Men were Trump by 12. The White working class was Trump by 39. White college graduates was Trump by 4. White men were for Trump by 31. The working class and lower middle class was Trump by 3.
In the 2020 election, Donald Trump lost Independents, 54% to 41%. The Independent vote shrank from 31% of the electorate to 26% in 2020. Joe Biden won 64% of Moderates to 34% for Trump. Trump won 58% of the White vote to 41% for Joe Biden. He won men by 53% to 45% for Biden. He won White college graduates 51% to 48%, but they shrank from 37% of the electorate in 2016 to 32% in 2020. Trump won the White working class by 67% to 32% which went from 34% of the electorate to 35%. He won White men in particular 61% to 38%. Joe Biden won Americans making $50,000 to 100,000 by 57% to 42%. Trump carried Americans making over $100,000 by 54% to 42% after splitting the upper middle class with Hillary by 47% to 47% in 2016. Indies were for Biden by 13 and shrank 5 points in their share of the electorate. Moderates were for Biden by 30. Whites were for Trump by 17. Men were for Trump by 8. The White working class was for Trump by 35. White college graduates were for Biden by 3. White men were for Trump by 23. The working class and lower middle class were for Biden by 15. The upper middle class were for Trump by 12.
Joe Biden won the election in the Center.
The problem for Blumpf was rightwing Indies. Observe.
Donald Trump 2016
Independents – 51% Trump, 37% Hillary
Independents – 53% Trump, 37% Hillary
Independents – 50% Trump, 40% Hillary
Independents – 52% Trump, 36% Hillary
Independents – 48% Trump, 41% Hillary
Independents – 44% Trump, 42% Hillary
Independents – 46% Hillary, 41% Trump
Independents – 45% Trump, 45% Hillary
Independents – 47% Trump, 44% Hillary
Independents – 52% Trump, 41% Hillary
Independents – 50% Trump, 37% Hillary
Independents – 52% Trump, 38% Hillary
Independents – 47% Trump, 43% Hillary
In the 2016 season, Donald Trump had a player on his team who was like a star defensive tackle in the Center. Indies carried the day in all the swing states. Republicans and Conservatives were weaker. More of them rallied behind Trump in the 2020 election than in the 2016 election.
Donald Trump 2020
Independents – 52% Biden, 46% Trump
Independents – 49% Biden, 44% Trump
Independents – 55% Biden, 41% Trump
Independents – 51% Biden, 43% Trump
Independents – 51% Biden, 43% Trump
Independents – 54% Biden, 41% Trump
Independents – 57% Biden, 34% Trump
Independents – 61% Biden, 35% Trump
Independents – 54% Biden, 43% Trump
Independents – 53% Biden, 44% Trump
Independents – 47% Biden, 43% Trump
Independents – 51% Biden, 45% Trump
Independents – 54% Biden, 42% Trump
The whole front between Right and Left collapsed in the Center. This is where victory was won in 2016. It is where defeat happened in 2020. It happened in my corner of the political galaxy.
Donald Trump lost the Racist Center.
The 2016 campaign was heavy on the racism and populism. The 2020 campaign was heavy on stock market cheerleading and pandering to based blacks with the Platinum Plan. The Alt-Right was told to get lost and walked off the team. The Far Right vote is in the middle of the electorate.
Elections are won in the Center:
The difference between 2016 and 2020 was rightwing Independent men making under $100,000 a year:
It is a downscale, blue collar Indie male vote.
According to some of the geniuses in the White Nationalist movement, we should ask for nothing and expect nothing from the Republican Party. 5% of Whites say their race or ethnicity is extremely important to their identity. 10% consider their race or ethnicity very important to their identity. Needless to say, there are millions of racially conscious Whites and the idea that these people are not a significant swath of the right-leaning electorate is preposterous. It is 10 million to 29 million people.
The Racist Center is one of the most cynical swathes of the American electorate. They are traditional populist-leaning non-voters. Once in a blue moon, they vote Republican.
“More in Common calls this tribe the “Politically Disengaged,” a group comprising 26 percent of Americans, who are almost invisible in local politics and community life. As a group, they’re much poorer and less educated than the average American and much more likely to say that “being white” is important to being an American—20 percent, rather than 11 percent—to say people of other religions are morally inferior and to say that a “strong leader willing to break the rules” is needed to fix America, 57 percent to 45. They are much more eclectic of a group than More in Common’s other “tribes,” like Progressive Activists and Devoted Conservatives. …”
“The Politically Disengaged group most resembles Passive Liberals in having lower levels of income and education and being less engaged in following current affairs. Fully 41 percent are making less than $30,000 per year, and approximately one in four have gone without food or medical treatment at least somewhat often in the past year. They diverge from Passive Liberals in being more anxious about external threats and less open in their attitudes towards differences. For instance, they are the most likely to say that being white is necessary to be American and that people who hold other religious views are morally inferior. They are more concerned about the threat of terrorism and are quite closed to the view that Islamic and American values are compatible. They are practically invisible in local politics and community life, being one of the least likely groups to participate in political rallies or vote in local elections. They are the least well-informed group on all measures of political knowledge. They are also the most pessimistic about the possibility of reconciling differences between the factions. Overall, this makes the Politically Disengaged a challenging segment to persuade. …”
Usually, these people don’t vote. They are tuned out. I suspect that in 2016 that they were dialed in and checked out in 2020:
Compared to the average American:
Eight percent more likely to say that, to fix America, we need a strong leader willing to break the rules (56 percent v. 48 percent)
Nine percent more likely to believe the “differences between Americans are too big for us to work together” (32 percent v. 23 percent)
Nine percent more likely to say that “being white” is important to being American (20 percent v. 11 percent)
Nine percent less likely to make over $20,000 a year (74 percent v. 83 percent)
More than twice as likely not to be involved in any community activity (78 percent v. 34 percent)
Much less likely to share political content on social media (5 percent v. 26 percent)
Much less likely to be registered to vote (52 percent v. 72 percent)
Ten percent more likely to be black or Hispanic (34 percent v. 24 percent)
Six percent more likely to be aged 30 to 44 (31 percent v. 25 percent)
Sixteen percent more likely to have no college education (53 percent v. 37 percent)
In the Center of the electorate where elections are won, there is a group of rightwing Independents that Pew calls Hard Pressed Skeptics who have an equal mix of rightwing and leftwing positions. They are moderates and populists who are alienated from the system.
In the Center of the electorate, there is a stratum of financially distressed, cynical Independents who are White men. They are restrictionist on immigration, isolationist on foreign policy, believe they are getting cheated by globalization. They support a strong state. They were the Obama-Trump voters.
Hard Pressed Skeptics are populists who have an extremely negative view of Wall Street and the fairness of the economic system.
They have the most negative in the electorate of immigrants. They are second only to Solid Liberals in believing that too much power is concentrated in the hands of a few large companies.
Does this sound familiar? Strongly restrictionist on immigration, isolationist, critical of big business, supportive of government social programs, stridently populist, less religious, White male, Independent, financially stressed and cynical about politics?
Think of American politics as being like trench warfare in France in World War I. Young White men who are making under $100,000 a year who are populist leaning Indies are on the front lines.
Pew has tracked this swath of the Center electorate for years. It has gone by different names like “Hard Pressed Skeptics” or “Disaffected.”
Here are few myths that need to be exploded.
- The idea that most people who identify as White Nationalist or Alt-Right or “Dissident Right” or whatever who are pro-White are conservative Republicans. A huge number of them are right-leaning Independents in the Center of the electorate. They are rightwing in the sense of being authoritarian, against political correctness and socially conservative. Their views on economics and their financial circumstances places them to the Left of Conservatives.
- The idea that “normies” are College Republicans or conservatives. There are pro-White conservatives, but also pro-White moderates and populists and Independents. Pew divides up the rightwing electorate into Country First Conservatives, Core Conservatives, Market Skeptic Republicans and New Era Enterprisers.
- The idea that Independent voters are anything but Independent voters and will vote for Republican candidates no matter what and be satisfied with doing so.
- The idea that cynical, traditional non-voters can be treated like a doormat by the GOP and have “no place else to go.” This was the fatal flaw on which Jared Kushner premised the 2020 campaign. He treated Independent swing voters like base Republicans.
- The idea that the Center of the electorate is less racist, less populist than the Right. Just the opposite is true. The Hard Pressed Skeptics are much more populist and racist than conservatives.
Donald Trump’s 2020 campaign was designed in a lab by Jared and other people who are equally clueless about why Trump won the 2016 election. In 2020, he won more conservatives and Republicans. Trumpism 2.0 crushed Joe Biden in the making over $100,000 electorate. Donald Trump moved from +15 to +30 on economics in the first year of his presidency. He came to be perceived as more rightwing on economics than Ronald Reagan. Gary Cohn and Larry Kudlow served as his chief economic advisers.
The people who elected Donald Trump in the first place were disappointed with his presidency and especially the 2020 campaign. They wanted to see him crush the Black Lives Matter and Antifa riots. They wanted to see him deport illegal aliens and build the wall and ban Muslims. They didn’t want to see Lil Pump/Pimp and the Platinum Plan which was a slap in the face. They don’t want to hear about how Trump was the most pro-Jewish president in history and Ric Grenell and Charlie Kirk boasting about the legalization of homosexuality in Botswana. They certainly didn’t want to hear about DOW 30,000 or how a bunch of useless Republicans in the Senate couldn’t send them the second stimulus check.
In the 2016 election, Donald Trump excited this group of rightwing Independent men. They were his original supporters and backed him through the Republican primaries. Trump persuaded them to vote for him on the basis of BOTH social issues and economics. He made a full throated populist pitch to them in October 2016. In the 2020 election, however, his campaign assumed that they were there and could be taken for granted while Jared and Brad Parscale spent a billion dollars pandering to every group in America but them. The 2020 campaign was endless stock market cheerleading. Trump’s campaign attacked Joe Biden for supporting the 1994 crime bill and the Defense of Marriage Act. The 2020 campaign was less racist and less populist and was a failure that cost Trump a second term.
Everyone who is passionately Woke and who thinks “racism” is the most important issue in America is a Solid Liberal Democrat. Those people are outnumbered by White people in the middle of the electorate who were sick and tired of hearing about “racism” in 2016 and even more fed up in 2020 when Donald Trump just stood idly by and allowed them to run wild. In disgust, they either sat out the 2020 election, voted reluctantly for Trump or voted for Joe Biden for economic reasons. That’s what happened.
Note: I want to stress here that this was one reason and by far not the only reason that Trump lost the election. Part of it was seniors and COVID and economic distress. Part of it was that Joe Biden was never as unpopular as Hillary. Part of it was that Independents and Moderates were just sick of Trump flailing around and inflaming the country. Part of it was college educated voters who never liked his personality and thought he was an idiot. In my view, those are the Top 5 reasons.