2020 Autopsy: Nevada

This is the 2020 election in Nevada vs. the 2016 election in Nevada:

Here are the 2020 and 2016 exit polls:

Nevada 2020

Electorate – 61% White

Seniors – 51% Trump, 47% Biden

Independents – 47% Biden, 43% Trump

Moderates – 56% Biden, 39% Trump

Conservatives – 84% Trump, 13% Biden

Blacks (9% of electorate) – 80% Biden, 17% Trump

Hispanics (19% of electorate) – 56% Biden, 37% Trump

Whites (61% of electorate) – 56% Trump, 41% Biden

White Women – 51% Trump, 45% Biden

White Men – 61% Trump, 37% Biden

White College Educated Voters (22% of electorate) – 48% Trump, 48% Biden

White Working Class Voters (40% of electorate) – 60% Trump, 38% Biden

Nevada 2016

Electorate – 62% White

Seniors – 52% Hillary, 47% Trump

Independents – 50% Trump, 37% Hillary

Moderates – 54% Hillary, 38% Trump

Conservatives – 77% Trump, 19% Hillary

Blacks (9% of electorate) – 81% Hillary, 12% Trump

Hispanics (18% of electorate) – 60% Hillary, 29% Trump

Whites (62% of electorate) – 56% Trump, 38% Hillary

White Women – 52% Trump, 43% Hillary

White Men – 60% Trump, 34% Hillary

White College Educated Voters (29% of electorate) – 51% Trump, 43% Hillary

White Working Class Voters (33% of electorate)– 59% Trump, 35% Hillary

What do you see in these numbers?

The Nevada electorate is 1% less White like in Arizona, but Trump is doing 5 points better with blacks and 8 points better with Hispanics. He is winning 7 points more of the Conservative vote. He has ballooned the White working class vote from 33% to 40% of the electorate. Given these shifts, we would expect a closer race in Nevada. Perhaps even a Trump victory in the state.

What is the problem? The problem is that Independents have flipped. They went for Trump by 13 points in 2016. Biden is winning them 4 points. He is doing slightly better with Moderates. Biden is splitting White College Educated Voters with Trump who won them by 8 points in the 2016 election. Joe Biden is doing 3% better with the White vote than Hillary Clinton and squeaking out a victory.

This doesn’t seem right though. The exit polls had a 2 point race in Clark County and a 16 point race in Washoe County. Joe Biden is beating Trump by 10 points in Clark and only 5 points in Washoe County. Hillary beat Trump in Clark by about 11 points and 1.3 points in Washoe.

Yeah, I don’t know. Is it a brown mirage? Is Trump trading Indies for Hispanics in Nevada? Clark is slightly more red in 2020. Washoe is a lot more blue. Same result.

Here are the New York Times exit polls:

As we have seen everywhere else, the Wokesters in Nevada are outnumbered by those suffering from racism fatigue.

The polls were … accurate.

3 Comments

  1. There’s a lot less white people than you think. There is a lot of Brown Shifting Whiteness in the data piles. Especially out West. The encroaching brown often sled identifies white.

  2. Even in Nevada that black vote is like a pebble in the shoe. The Hispanic vote, while breaking for Biden is manageable, up for argument etc.

  3. Wait til the Denver Sprawl hit’s Cheyenne, with just 400,000 or so adding some subdivisions of extended Denver to the Cheyenne area will tip that electorate blue very easily as well. Nevada was deserted and Mormon a couple generations ago, the creation of Vegas filled up with poor people fleeing high priced LA easily tipped it blue. Same will soon happen in WY. I drove down I 25 back in 2012 and noticed just about 25 miles south of Cheyenne it was the same Giant Sprawl that extends all along the front range down to Pueblo full of California Liberal Transplants and degenerates from flyover country who moved there just for the weed. I have no doubt the sprawl shall soon engulf Cheyenne.

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