I’ve always dismissed the Boogalootarians as a joke.
History shows that fringe groups are incapable of sparking civil wars by their own actions. These events typically happen due to conflict within the elite. A frustrated faction of the existing elite feels aggrieved about something, breaks off and sparks violence that spirals out of control.
“Turchin identifies a few primary causes of sociopolitical instability in modern states. The most significant is what he calls “elite overproduction,” which happens when society produces ever-larger numbers of educated elite aspirants but cannot provide secure positions for all of them. This reduces elite incomes, creates greater numbers of frustrated elite aspirants, and intensifies intra-elite competition. Sometimes, existing elites will then close ranks and lock out rival factions instead of allowing a rotation that might otherwise calm tensions. This can lead to the creation of radical counterelites dedicated to destabilizing or overthrowing the status quo.
In Turchin’s view, mass immiseration alone doesn’t present a revolutionary threat until elite overproduction creates instability within the ranks of the ruling class. At that point, competition begins to unravel the pro-social, cooperative norms that formerly bound elites together and allowed them to pursue their shared interests. While there is a romantic view of revolutions as uprisings of the people against oppressive rulers, Turchin notes that historically, they are usually sparked by a faction of the elite that, for some reason, has been locked out of power.
We can see this happening in the contemporary U.S. American Affairs editor Julius Krein recently wrote about how the “real class war” in the U.S. is being driven by the widening wealth gap “between elites primarily dependent on capital gains and those primarily dependent on professional labor.” As Krein points out, the economic “performance gap between the top 1 or 0.1 percent versus the top 10 percent is actually larger than the gap between those right at 10 percent and any part of the bottom 90 percent.” In other words, inequality is growing more within the American elite than between the lower tier of the elite and the rest of the population. But unlike those in the bottom 90%, frustrated, lower-tier elites have enough organization and influence to translate their grievances into political power. …
Turchin says bluntly that if the pressures of elite overproduction, extreme inequality, immiseration, and labor oversupply continue to escalate, the result could be “a massive outbreak of political violence … ending in a state collapse, a revolution, or a civil war (or all of the above).” …
The first thing to expect is an escalation of language that draws battle lines, fuses together the in-groups that will later spearhead violence, and demonizes and dehumanizes the dissidents’ opponents. The next phase, the “trigger,” has yet to happen. It is typically a “highly symbolic event,” often involving a “sacrificial victim.”
We also have too many bored, upper middle class professionals and not enough elite positions to go around for them. These people have never been chastened by war. There are no brakes on their fanaticism. Woke professionals embittered by the defeat of Bernie Sanders and economically stressed by the virus have launched a coup within the liberal elite that is playing out on the streets.
“New York’s media business appears to be in endless decline, but it is still one of America’s most visible stages for cultural conflict, drama and change. Top figures at Bon Appétit, Refinery 29, Variety, ABC News and The New York Times have been forced to resign or take leave this month, as were lower-profile executives, like the editor of Indy Week in North Carolina.
The ousters were driven, in many cases, by employees who believe the companies’ internal cultures don’t mirror the progressive and anti-racist values they sell. And while the immediate spur is the wave of protests against anti-black racism and police violence set off by the killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis, the New York-based media had already been activated by something else: The clarity with which the onset of Covid-19 revealed who could afford to get out of town, who might be OK if they lost their job, who had money or family to fall back on. The backgrounds of Zoom calls, your colleagues’ Instagrams and casual Slack references revealed who was trying to get the air-conditioner in their Crown Heights studio working, and who was opening up the pool.
“People are scared and they’re seeing other people’s safety nets at a time when everything is uncertainty and they don’t have one, and everybody else’s safety nets are in their faces,” said Ashley Ford, 33 and living in Flatbush, who has written for outlets including Refinery29 and Marie Claire, and has a memoir due out next spring. “Not only are people mad, but they have time to talk about it.”
They don’t seem to have a clue what they are setting in motion here.
“In 2018, Turchin wrote that until recently, “I thought that we collectively have a decent chance of avoiding the crisis, but I now have abandoned this hope. A major reason for my pessimism is the resolute refusal by our ruling class (including its both Liberal and Conservative wings) to see the real causes of the crisis.” If past generations were doomed by ignorance to repeat the mistakes of history, our elites have the ability to recognize these mistakes — and to keep repeating them anyway. “
I’m sure it is exhilarating for them now.
The soft liberal elite is folding and caving to their absurd demands. These people are incapable of governing a country as vast and divided as the United States. They are going to completely destabilize the system. Their ideology is only capable of destruction and disintegration.
Again, the Boogalootarians could never start something like this. They were never in any position to do so. It could only come out of the breakup of the existing elite. These people, however, are in a position to fracture the United States and plunge the country into another civil war.
If the United States did descend into a civil war, it would pit the coasts and the cities against the vast interior of the country. For a number of reasons, the woke are not in a strong position to win a civil war. They are disproportionately female urban residents. In fact, their extreme behavior reminds me in some ways of Southern slaveholders with their attacks on monuments and burning the American flag. They are leading a full on assault on the dignity and patriotism of White Middle America.
Note: For now, their opponents are waiting on Trump and the GOP to do something. After all, they are in charge of the government. It is their job to put down the insurrection.