This sounds like a bold prediction. But it isn’t.
“In the early 1990s, when Bill Clinton was in the White House and the United States looked unshakeable, the administration appointed Jack Goldstone to study how states fail. They meant other states; not the US. Few expected that his model would later predict their country’s collapse.
In an unpublished paper submitted for peer review, Professor Goldstone, who is a sociologist, and Peter Turchin, an expert on the mathematical modelling of historical societies, have concluded that the US is “headed for another civil war”.
The conditions for civil violence, they say, are the worst since the 19th century — in particular the years leading up to the start of the American Civil War in 1861.
The reason for this are trends that began in the 1980s, “with regard to inequality, selfish elites, and polarisation that have crippled the ability of the US government to mount an effective response to the pandemic disease,” they write. …
Professor Goldstone is a leading authority on the study of revolutions and long-term social change at George Mason University. The model developed by him and Peter Turchin tracks such data as the ratio of median workers’ wages to GDP per capita, life expectancy, average heights, and the number of new millionaires. It also measures political polarisation or the degree of overlap between the parties.
Applied to US history, it ‘predicts’ the 1861 Civil War and the unrest of the 1930s — a time of Jim Crow segregation, Gilded Age inequality, and fascism. …”
“Not everyone took Peter Turchin seriously a decade ago when he said widespread civil unrest would sweep through the U.S. in 2020.
“They had no reason to believe I wasn’t crazy,” says Turchin, a 63-year-old researcher who teaches cultural evolution at the University of Connecticut.
In 2010, after analyzing historical cycles of instability, Turchin made a prediction that was published at the time in the journal Nature: America will suffer a period of major social upheaval beginning around 2020.
Some were skeptical, Turchin says, because “people did not understand that I was making scientific predictions, not prophecies.” …
On top of that, Turchin says the COVID-19 pandemic has further worsened the wellbeing of large swaths of the American population—a leading driver of national instability—and could make the public less likely to trust government institutions. As millions of Americans remain jobless, Turchin says there will be other triggers after this. He worries tensions “may escalate all the way to a civil war.”
“Unfortunately,” he says, “things are not as bad as they can be.” …”
This country is poised to descend into violence.
I’m not celebrating or endorsing it. Quite the contrary. I’ve always abhored violence. The data and history strongly suggest that this is where this is going though. The downward spiral seems to be getting worse too. There is no sign that we are hitting rock bottom or the situation is stabilizing.
Note: STAY OUT OF IT.
There is nothing we can do about it. We also have nothing to gain from inserting ourselves into this shitshow. Events are running their course and making our case far more persuasively than we are capable of doing. We are gaining ground by grilling and chilling and letting all of those “normies” catch up with us. We have traveled far ahead of them over the past two decades.