This is a follow up post.
“Am I missing something here?
In the United States, there are currently 739,932 cases and 39,015 deaths. There are 107,300 closed cases and 631,623 active cases. Of those 107,300 closed cases, there were 68,285 recoveries (64%) and 39,015 deaths (36%). Let’s assume for the sake of argument that no one else gets infected with coronavirus in the United States. How will the remaining 5/6ths of current active cases resolve?”
On April 19th, I wrote a post about the first 107,000 cases of COVID-19 that had resolved in the United States. I noted at the time that there were 39,015 deaths with 631,623 active cases. I asked a question on that day: how will the remaining 5/6th of active cases resolve?
This was at the height of “just the flu, bro” coronavirus denialism in April. Greg Johnson and Andrew Anglin debated the issue a little over a week later on April 28th. The death toll on that day had grown to 59,266 which Anglin told us was around the same as the 2017/2018 flu season. Actually, it wasn’t because that was only a CDC estimate, not confirmed deaths which were significantly lower.
We now know the answer to the question that I asked on April 19th. Today, there are now 822,768 closed cases, which means all of those 631,623 active cases and then some have finally resolved. The death toll of COVID-19 in the United States is now 110,331. It is nearly twice what it was when Greg Johnson debated Andrew Anglin on April 28th. There are also still 1,101,626 active cases.
In other words, COVID-19 has surpassed all previous normal flu seasons, the 1968 influenza pandemic and shortly it will surpass the death toll of the 1957 influenza pandemic. By the end of this month, COVID-19 will become the second deadliest epidemic in American history. COVID-19 deaths will surpass WW1 to become the fourth deadliest event in American history with only the Spanish Flu, Civil War and WW2 having killed more Americans. This is with over a million unresolved cases and long before we get to the fall and winter of 2020/2021. History suggests the worst of the pandemic is still to come. Of the last 7 out of 8 pandemics since 1700, a second deadlier peak has arrived six months after the first peak.
Nothing that I have seen has caused me to reassess my views on this subject. You are watching one of the biggest events in American history playing out right now. I believe this will be crystal clear a year from now. Future historians will look back on this spring as only the beginning of it. If the riots are any indication of what the future has in store for us, COVID-19 might be the least our worries by then.
Note: COVID-19 will likely prove to be the end of the third great epoch of American history. The Revolution to the Civil War was the first period. The Civil War to the Great Depression and WW2 was the second. World War II to COVID-19 was the third. No one knows what the fourth will be.