U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than Has Been Reported

Has the flu ever killed this many people in so few places this quickly at this time of year and under these extraordinary circumstances? If the answer to that question is no, then it strongly suggests the IFR of SARS-Cov-2 is significantly higher than the flu.

New York Times:

“Total deaths in seven states that have been hard hit by the coronavirus pandemic are nearly 50 percent higher than normal for the five weeks from March 8 through April 11, according to new death statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That is 9,000 more deaths than were reported as of April 11 in official counts of deaths from the coronavirus.

The new data is partial and most likely undercounts the recent death toll significantly. But it still illustrates how the coronavirus is causing a surge in deaths in the places it has struck, probably killing more people than the reported statistics capture. These increases belie arguments that the virus is only killing people who would have died anyway from other causes. Instead, the virus has brought a pattern of deaths unlike anything seen in recent years.

If you look at the provisional deaths from all causes, death counts in New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Massachusetts, Illinois, Maryland and Colorado have spiked far above their normal levels for the period. In New York City, the home of the biggest outbreak, the number of deaths over this period is more than three times the normal number. (Recent data suggests it could have reached six times higher than normal.) …”

Washington Post:

“The crude case fatality rates, covering people who have a covid-19 diagnosis, have been about 6 percent globally as well as in the United States. But when all the serological data is compiled and analyzed, the fatality rate among people who have been infected could be less than 1 percent.

But as infectious disease experts point out, even a seemingly low rate can translate into a shockingly large death toll if the virus spreads through a major portion of the population.

New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) said Monday that the latest antibody numbers in New York City indicate that 25 percent of the population of 8.8 million has already been infected. The city has recorded more than 12,000 confirmed covid-19 deaths, and lists another 5,000 as probable deaths. That is an infection fatality rate between 0.5 and 0.8 percent, depending on which death toll is factored in. (A spike in all-cause deaths in recent weeks also suggests that some coronavirus-related deaths have not been captured by mortality statistics.)

“The death rate is much, much lower,” Cuomo said Monday, referring to the serology tests. He said the New York state rate appears to be 0.5 percent — which is one death per 200 infections.

That figure is still sobering to infectious disease experts. A rate of 0.5 percent “is way more than a usual flu season and I would think way more than the ’57 or 1968 [influenza] pandemic death toll, too,” Viboud said. …”

The Imperial College model which projected 2.2 million deaths in the United States assumed a 0.66% IFR based on Chinese data. An IFR of 0.5% to 0.8% is far more devastating than an IFR of 0.1%.

If COVID-19 is no worse than the 2017-2018 flu season, why is it already surpassing the death toll? Why does it spike far beyond the deaths that actually occurred in places like New York City at that time?

Note: The 1957 influenza pandemic had an IFR of 0.1 to 0.3%. The 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic had an IFR comparable to the seasonal flu. It killed a little over 12,000 people in the United States.

About Hunter Wallace 9678 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

8 Comments

  1. Because I had not been sick in so many years, I had not bothered myself to keep up my Elderberry and Garlic intake this Winter.

    In February, however, I came down with something so strong one night I told my wife that if it got any harder to breather, I would have to go to the hospital.

    It felt like there were bags of heavy moist clay in my lungs and, whenever I tried to hack it up, I practically would suffocate from the amount.

    Fortunately I had got back on the Elderberry and Garlic, plus, in addition to very large doses of those, I added Oregon Grape, Zinc, Wormwood, Olive Leaf, and Lemon Myrtle leaves, and things gradually got better from there.

    Though once I had experienced a problem like that in ’99, I had never been so sick that it had taken me three weeks to recover my energy and strength, as it did this February.

    Very unpleasant to feel you are drowning in your lungs.

    As I am very healthy, and on no medications, I can only wonder what it did to those who have issues. Good night, Nurse!

  2. ” An IFR of 0.5% to 0.8% is far more devastating than an IFR of 0.1%.”

    I think you lost a decimal place.

  3. Hunter is not the proponent of the MSM. You’ve come a long way Hunter, since the same MSM lie about Trayvon Martin.

  4. Not sure. I for sure do think it’s worse than the flu. No doubt.

    Was just watching the medical chief from the University of Pittsburgh saying the death rate is far less than what is being reported. Also in New York City, clearly the center of covid in America and the state making up about 40 percent of all covid Us deaths , funeral parlor directors are complaining about being forced to put covid as the reason for death on a very large amount of certificates, even when family protests. It’s clearly about federal money to at least some degree, maybe larger than what is discussed.

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