Tucker Carlson: Republicans Shouldn’t Get Too Confident About 2020

In the 2020 election, Donald Trump will have the shrinking conservative base, the Republican establishment and his Jewish donors. The Republican Party that he conquered in 2016 with his insurgent nationalist and populist campaign will be much more united behind him.

The current plan is to win back the suburbanites who defected to the Democrats in the 2018 midterms by portraying the Democrats as radical socialists which will be easy to do if Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren is the nominee. The college educated Republican women who Trump has alienated are probably unreachable at this point. The GOP also seems to believe in its perennial fantasy that it is going to win over a larger share of blacks and Hispanics.

The keystone of Trump’s coalition in the 2016 election was his ability to turn out disaffected, rural, White working class voters, especially in the Upper Midwest and Rust Belt, in enormous numbers that wasn’t accounted for in the polls. He also had to bring just enough suburbanites home while the black vote for Hillary shrank from Obama levels. Millennials who had voted for Bernie Sanders were also upset about the DNC rigging the primary for Hillary and stayed home in protest because the entire media had assured them that Trump had a 90% chance of losing the 2016 election.

If Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic nomination, the Millennials who stayed home in 2016 will turn out in force for him in 2020. There will also be significantly more Millennial and Gen Z voters in 2020 and fewer MAGA Boomers. The vast majority of Democrats don’t care about anything but defeating Trump and would vote for Sanders in spite of their reservations about him. Bernie Sanders has a better record than Trump on trade and foreign policy. He will also make health care and student loan debt the central issues of his campaign. Woke Bernie will also pivot back to 2016 Bernie in the general election after defeating Elizabeth Warren.

Will Trump have the same level of support from his nationalist and populist base in the 2020 election? Will he turn out the same number of disaffected, rural, White working class voters with a conservative record? I believe that he is going to lose a big swath of them who were excited in 2016, but who have since wised up to his bullshit. In a Bernie vs. Trump race, do you go with Bernie who wants to cancel your student loan debt while dissolving the border or Trump who wants to raise legal immigration and expand the travel ban to include Belarus?

In 2016, Trump converted lots of disaffected non-voters into Trump voters. In 2020, I think he will convert a large number of Trump voters back into disaffected non-voters who sit out the election. It won’t just be the White Nationalists. I don’t see anything close to the energy and vibe of the 2016 campaign. I see a bunch of giddy conservatives and traditional Republican voters and there are too few of those people to carry Trump to victory in 2020.

Note: I’m fully aware of my own bias. I soured on Trump years ago. I don’t think Trump has expanded his 2016 coalition though. I think it has shrunk around the edges. He isn’t going to catch the Democrats napping and squeak to victory again either. If Bernie or Biden is the nominee, I still think Trump will lose. I think he would have a better shot against Warren.

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27 Comments

  1. I will not be voting for the treacherous, murdering Mischling. Some one noted – and I apologize for not remembering who wrote this – but White People go to sleep when the GOP is in office. I will be attending my local annual GOP fundraiser. I will vote locally. I was a full throated Trump supporter in 2016. Most of my local folks were supporting Cruz. I will attend this year’s dinner to LOUDLY denounce Trump, and all the National JEWOP vermin. I will opine forcefully on their betrayal of the WHITE voting base, and their 24/7 fellating of the kikes, and Israel. IN THOSE WORDS.

    • As fond as I am of Richard Milhaus his victory in 1968 probably took some of the steam out of angry white voters, madam. Maybe if Humphrey had won instead things would’ve spiraled out of control. At any rate Helter Skelter is 50 years behind schedule. And we need a new Commander Rockwell.

    • I wrote a comment about that in some form, but a lot of others have too. It’s true. The last few years have been a constant MAGA pep rally for these rural whites, who don’t have a fucking clue about what is happening to them. It’s infuriating. We need Trump gone so we can have a chance at getting a real nationalist in 2024 before it’s too damn late.

      • It’s already too late, Franz Liszt. A political solution is no longer possible. Once we accept that then we can move forward with an effective plan of action.

        • Spawn, don’t call that jerk by the name of a great and noble Hungarian pianist-composer!
          He doesn’t deserve it.

          Secondly, if you remember HHH, and “Tricky Dick,’ then, so do I. And my parents (Native Minnesotans, and lifelong Democrats) decided in 1968 to vote for RMN, and were OSTRACIZED by our family for a good 18 months, for doing so. Union family, die-hard Dems. You know the kind…. It was almost as if we had ‘converted’ to Islam or something…and all it was, was politics.

          There was NOTHING to recommend the Humph as President. Nixon WAS, and still IS, the better candidate. I’d vote for him today, over Drumpf.

          Denise, I hope someone (anyone?) listens to you at that dinner.

          But, as I found to my chagrin at our local caucus back in the day, people are SHEEOPLE. It’s what led me to start reading sites like this- people are STYEW-PID! My one foray into politics was my last. Attending a caucus, I found a) the vote was already rigged, and b) the ‘Republicans’ there, would rather have raised Romney to candidate status, IGNORING BOTH HIS RECORD AND HIS CULTIC RELIGION, than be LABELLED ‘racist’ for considering Ron Paul. And then castigated me as some kind of ‘religious hater’ (I was in civvies, and not my collar that night!) for bringing up the LDS connection…and I’m talking Catholics. Ever been publiclly “shunned” by an entire ROOM full of people, for merely having a different POLITICAL position!?

          It was my catharsis, and has led me to where I am, today. Agreeing with Hitler’s Mein Kampf on occasion, and wondering when the next Revolution will happen, and thanking God for letting the ‘scales fall from my eyes.’

          So, Good luck, But I won’t be holding my breath.

        • Spahn – You are probably right. I know the odds are dismal all too well and will never be that optimistic about a candidate ever again, but one can have a little hope, especially when the other routes to our success are either long, bloody, or both.

          Fr. John – Ok papist.

  2. None of the democrats sandidates are appealing next to Trump.Lower turn out votes in the swing states for Democrats.

  3. I truly feel the only way any significant number of whites will wake up is if Trump loses and a person like Bernie Sanders or someone further to his left gets elected.

  4. What’s the difference? We can’t “win” in a multicultural democracy financed and run by Jews. So Trump didn’t implement full fledged Bolshevism (yet), is that the new political bar? Sometimes dying quickly is better than dying slowly, especially if you’re not doing anything to heal yourself in either case. That’s us I’m afraid.

  5. HW, I see no evidence that any significant # of the White idjits who voted Drumpf in 2016

    have noticed that he has betrayed them on every single issue. But the ’20 election

    will probably be close anyway, simply because the electorate will be 2% browner. As

    for me, I’ll be voting for (((Bernie))) and his promise to decapitate his fellow Jew billionaires.

        • I merely want to save up enough money to retire, pay my kid’s final college bills, and then expatriate somewhere else- like Russia or Hungary. Get the hell out of a country dying of apostasy and perversion. I need that ‘four more years.’ Stonelifter saw the light, YEARS AGO. I only wish I had been in a position to do what he and his family did….

          I think I can do it with Drumpf, I don’t think I can do it with a Jew Socialist New Yawker….who’s insane with power lust. But, that’s me……and yes, all politics is personal.
          But there is a religious component as well. At least Drumpf is a White Man, and Bernie is… well, a lizard son of Hell. And I can’t bring myself to vote in the heirs of the Pharisees, openly.
          One Regicide was enough. Nomimesayin’?

  6. I have figured ever since it became clear that Trump would run for re-election that he would lose. To any Democrat at all:

    The white electorate dropping to 60% or below.

    The Philadelphia machine taking no chances and sending record Dem votes to Harrisburg.

    Disaffection with Trump in the Midwest, or at least a distinct lack of enthusiasm. 2016’s narrow victories in Wisconsin and Michigan will turn into losses.

    Close in formerly solid states like Arizona, Texas, Georgia. I think one of these flips.

    Probable loss in North Carolina and Florida. Virginia is gone forever.

    A concerted effort by search engines and social media against Trump. Near hysterical anti-Trump coverage by the mainstream media.

    An engineered downturn in the economy in September or October.

    • It doesn’t alarm trump, he doesn’t give a shit. The Republican establishment and the rest of the cuckservatives are celebrating.

  7. In the meantime, one would be wise to purchase the items that one would need if they were to be persecuted.
    Think South Afrika 1980s.
    Had they known then what they know now, they would have bought weapons, ammo and other War supplies and allied themselves with a military power.

    Don’t say you didn’t know.

    Its 1860 and we’re the Indians this time around.

  8. Trump’s narrow victory in 2016 – and let’s face it, that was a thrilling campaign and win for all us, dupes as we were – was his one shot. Martial law on day 1 would have been the best option. But that is just assuming he intended to do anything he promised. If it was all a sham, as it now appears it was, then it just goes to show that there is no possibility for a workable future under full franchise democracy in a multiracial state, particularly one as big as the USA. I personally won’t be voting in the 2020 election for anything short of a party platform that promises a GREATLY ENLARGED CONFEDERATE STATES.

    • ” I personally won’t be voting in the 2020 election for anything short of a party platform that promises a GREATLY ENLARGED CONFEDERATE STATES.”

      And, pray tell, where is THAT political party/attendant infrastructure?

      • why “THAT political party/attendant infrastructure” it’s judeo-christianity, right John + ? It’s all I hear from Southern Nationalists … with that they are just going to roll themselves up in global messianic monarchy (aka communism and indeed not confederate at all!)

    • There isn’t on. And I wouldn’t believe any poltician who promised it. That is basically the crux of the joke. Voting is fake.

  9. Woke Bernie will also pivot back to 2016 Bernie in the general election

    So what? If he wins, it’s wokesters who’ll have his ear all throughout his presidency. What incentive could he have to push back against them?

    I don’t see anything close to the energy and vibe of the 2016 campaign. I see a bunch of giddy conservatives and traditional Republican voters and there are too few of those people to carry Trump to victory in 2020.

    For now, all signs are that it’s going to be a standard cuckservative campaign, but anything can still happen. I don’t think it’s unrealistic at all to think Trump might start making similar anti-PC noises around election time, especially if the polls look bad. It may not be as effective as last time, but on the other hand, he’ll have more normie support this time so it won’t have to be as effective.

  10. Regardless of who wins the same anti-White crap will continue as usual. Just for shits and giggles whoever the Dem’s pick it won’t be Bernie or the phony Indian. Both are from New England and that’s the kiss of death. Seems they are grooming Biden. IMO, the impeachment wrestling match is to get the stink of Biden’s son off of dad and put it on Trump. Don’t be surprised if Hillary is the dark horse.

    • Bernie is from NYC, not Vermont, he is from a CPUSA background. He would be right at home in a Communist Party, USA rally in Madison Square Garden ca. 1936. You have seen the black & white newsreel footage, with the big, square microphones on springs with some guy screaming at the crowd about the workers paradise with Uncle Joe in charge in the USSR? Those were Bernie’s peeps, literally.

      He grew up immersed in that 1930’s communist milieu which led him to oppose immigration to raise wages and go on so-called “civil rights” (sic)marches in the 1960’s. Bernie learned communist doctrine as a child and it became his religion. Unlike true religion, communism’s doctrines are flexible, but not it’s desire for crushing, brutal power thus Bernie’s recent embrace of open borders, for our destruction.

  11. Tucker IS the voice of empire: The only difference is skin color, as long as they’re legal, everyone just stay calm and go to work. Queen Anne is more based.

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