How The Obama Coalition Crumbled

I think this might be young Nate Cohn’s best article:

“This was the core of the Obama coalition: an alliance between black voters and Northern white voters, from Mr. Obama’s first win in the 2008 Iowa caucuses to his final sprint across the so-called Midwestern Firewall states where he staked his 2012 re-election bid.

In 2016, the Obama coalition crumbled and so did the Midwestern Firewall. …

The countryside of Iowa or the industrial belt along Lake Erie is not the sort of place that people envision when they think of the Obama coalition. Yet it was an important component of his victory. …

The turnout probably increased among all major groups of voters — Hispanics, white Democrats, white Republicans — except black voters.

The conclusive data is available in the Southern states where voters indicate their race on their voter registration forms, and they point toward a considerable decline in black turnout. …”

The key insight:

“Campaign lore has it that President Obama won thanks to a young, diverse, well-educated and metropolitan “coalition of the ascendant” — an emerging Democratic majority anchored in the new economy. Hispanic voters, in particular, were credited with Mr. Obama’s victory.

But Mr. Obama would have won re-election even if he hadn’t won the Hispanic vote at all. He would have won even if the electorate had been as old and as white as it had been in 2004. …”

Wait a minute.

The Narrative held for years that the Republicans had no chance of winning the presidency without the Hispanic vote and that Obama’s victories were due to Hispanics. Now you are saying Hillary’s margin in California, Illinois and New York was useless because the Hispanic vote was concentrated in Blue States.

Note: OD held for years that Obama was elected by Northern Whites. VDARE also held for years that the Hispanic vote was exaggerated by the Cheap Labor Lobby and Republican consultants.

up-white-voters-gif-master675

25 Comments

  1. Romney lost 2012 because he was a cuck. Ron Paul would have likely won (but was too nice, yet constitutionalist, small government, would have turned the swamp into desert). But the leftist Romneycare was about as appetizing to the base as coarse gruel. Do you prefer oatmeal or farina? Without sugar or fruit or anything – plain.

    Trump won because although he was so spicy as to be painful (think the final four BWW sauces), you knew he was different. Really different. Maybe hard to stomach but at least delicious and nutritious even if you have to immerse your tongue in Anbesol afterward.

    This is like some kind of game. Cuck v.s. socialist is 50/50. Alpha Male v.s. Cuck, advantage Alpha. Alpha v.s. empty pant-suit, advantage Alpha.

  2. I explained all of this before the 2016 election, way back on Monday, November 30, 2015. All of my prognostications proved correct. As well, I told the world why the national polls were wrong as such polls were unscientific.

    Both elections, Obama lost the white vote. Obama carried only 43% of whites vs McCain and only 39% of whites vs Romney. Obama won through racism — the female/feminist vote, the ethnic vote, the gay vote

    That is taken from my work which showed the path to a Trump win — the white vote:

    If the GOP candidate can get 10% more turn out of whites without college to show up and if that GOP candidate can get 10% more of them to vote GOP, that GOP candidate will be the next president. And this holds true even if 10% more Hispanics vote, 10% more blacks vote and 10% more Asians vote.

    NO ORDINARY WHITE GUY COULD EVER HOPE TO WIN THE U.S. PRESIDENCY IN 2016 AND MAYBE NEVER AGAIN. THE GOP WILL BE OVER SOON ENOUGH.

  3. Were the polls wrong?

    Clinton got 48% of the total vote, Trump 46% – a 2% margin, which was in line with the consistent average of quality polls (not the fraud polls of Pussygate).

    I was thinking 50-48-2 might not be enough for Clinton, and that she could lose in a close race, that was correct. The size of the vote for Gary Johnson surprised me, but also encourages me that these people will “come home” in 2020.

  4. Obama was very very successful at pacifying the anti-war movement. He was viewed as the anti-interventionist choice. Yet Obama topped a secular socialist North African leader who did nothing to provoke it and tried the same in Syria, while escalating the Afghanistan war and dragging his feat on getting out of Iraq.

    Clinton couldn’t fool people like Obama.

  5. Were it not for Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, and Bernie Sanders for that matter, Trump would have lost exactly as those polls projected.

  6. There will always be a green. There will always be a dissenting leftie. There will always be a Johnson and McMuffin too.

  7. Simple fact. The North picks the Presidents. They have since 1860. The Pacific Coast votes along with them. The rest of us are along for the ride. All any candidate has to do is capture all sixteen Northern states plus California, Oregon and Washington State. Trump took six major Northern states and the South and West put him over the top. The demise of the White electorate is greatly exaggerated.

  8. The people who called the election correctly will still be called kooks. The pollsters who got it wrong will say “we were right, look at Hillary’s popular vote margin, Russia interfered.” The class divide and the internet have created an echo chamber that still effectively controls the sort of people its supposed to control. What the Left didn’t anticipate was that the country was “more divided than they thought” They expected the mindset they imagine of the FDR voters to last forever. That is to say, they would reject the rich, vulgar, “Nazi” Trump. They kept saying “things aren’t that bad” – they really don’t have any appreciation of the sort of things Charles Murray said in Coming Apart because their hive-mind is dominated by Jews and homosexuals and they are profoundly alienated from the memory of the happy times of small town America.

    Mainstream polls figure in the Democratic voter fraud by extrapolating from the 2012 results. They couldn’t figure in white working men disgusted with Obama putting public housing and Somalians in their little towns. The Clinton “popular vote margin” (and the msm in its articles talks about the “2 candidate popular vote” so as to give Clinton more than 50%) is based on an ever increasing margin from California. How is it that weeks after the election we’re still counting irrelevant California ballots? Should we trust it? They are peremptory in their dismissal of voter fraud, because to do otherwise would cause the whole scam to crash down. California has no real Republican opposition to speak of. What is to stop that state from letting non-citizens vote in enormous numbers?

  9. “Bathhouse Barry” Soetoro didn’t win the 2008 and 2012 elections so much as John “Mr. Magoo” McCain and Willard “Shitt” Romney lost them. Those two A-holes were very weak, unappealing “establishment” candidates whose job was to make Barry look good by comparison. Yeb! Boosh was supposed to fulfill the same function this time around so that Grandma Cankles would win.

  10. Trump was the only candidate who would have been willing to trash Hillary.

    Candidates who depend on Jewish money won’t say things to offend Jews, which means they will never use effective rhetoric.

  11. There is also Eric Braverman, who was in charge of the Clinton Foundation. He has mysteriously disappeared without a trace. And the investigative journalist who called himself Victor Thorn recently died under mysterious circumstances. He was the co-author of several books about the escapades of Bill and Hillary. A young female journalist doing a piece on the Clinton Foundation’s failed efforts in Haiti has likewise been “Arkancided”. So the Clinton Mafia is still very active and the bodies of its victims continue to pile up.

  12. Like Brexit, Trump’s victory took them by surprise because they don’t listen to White folks in “flyover country”. Like respectable conservatives the Dems are anti-White snobs, which means the Russians did it.

  13. I know in Ohio the Negroes provided the margin for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and that was attested to even by the statisticians. I know that in Michigan Wisconsin and those places, the locals did support Obama and many switched to Trump but the Ohio margin was the Negroes.

  14. Whats strange is if you look at Kansas, which is basically a western extension of Ohio and Illinois and you will see that it’s Negro population is about 6% of the total and it is always solid Conservative. Now if we look at Illinois and Ohio ca 1950 when these percentages were about the same as Kansas, leftists couldn’t win outside the urban centers at all, they never could win the entire state.

    The Great Migration has been called by some the South’s payback for the war. It is worth noting that before 1941, the Negro population in OH, IN, IL MI and PA was about 5% of the total in each state. The Arsenal of Democracy changed all that. George Lincoln Rockwell once accused FDR of encouraging the Negroes to flood the cities to give him Democratic Majorities.

    The Negro in the South confronted a Solid White Wall against him, the Negro in the North became a niche vote, leverage against the other many divergent groups. This is very important for every Southron to understand as this is precisely why the South is being diluted. When you have the division and political niches as you had in the North, its rather easy to play identity politics.

  15. The Illuminati had picked Obama for 8 years, I told everyone that in 2008 and I said aside from an assassin or a wierd medical condition he would serve it out. Literally Mitt Romney could have released photographic evidence of Obama sexually assaulting young college males at a DC Bathhouse or of Manchelle’s sex change and it wouldnt have made one single iota of difference. The Illuminati Mind Control grid was almost airtight.

    What the Illuminists didnt count on was Trump who was a man with his own brand and money already being able to somewhat do an end around the control grid. Now the balls in Trumps court

  16. I actually believe they were putting out Fake Polls to drive down Trumps support, attempting to discourage the vote. I will always believe that

  17. How to restore power balance to the world?

    First consider this…

    Western Europe is essentially vassal-states of the US. So are Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea in Asia.

    So, their policies will only reflect the US globalist agenda.

    Now, what is wrong with the US?

    US is not ruled by all Americans. There is no balance among various ethnic/racial groups. What prevails is a uni-polar or uni-ethno national power.

    Now, consider the whole world long ago.

    Prior to WWII, the world was multi-polar, with several great power: British Empire, French Empire, resurgent National Socialist Germany, Imperial Japan, and the US.

    But WWII led to fall of empires, and the world became a bi-polar world of US vs USSR.

    And then the Cold War ended with the breakup of the USSR and decline of Russian power.

    The world became uni-polar with US as the only super-power.

    Now, with the rise of China and alliance of Russia-Iran, some are talking of the rise of new multi-polar world. But for now, the world is still uni-polar with US as the lone superpower.

    But the problem goes deeper. If US power was representative of all Americans, things wouldn’t be so bad. After all, the US came into being via the arrivals, settlements, and immigration of peoples from all over: England, Ireland, Germany, Netherlands, Russia, Poland, China, African nations, Arab nations, Iran, India, Pakistan, Mexico, etc, etc.

    So, if American Power represented all these various groups from all over the world, the uni-polar power of the US would be more balanced and restrained as US power would reflect the interests of various competing ethnic groups.

    Or, even if various groups in America were not equally represented in American Power, the dominant power would still make more sense if it represented the majority of Americans — white gentiles — or if it was restrained & balanced by some degree of ethnic/cultural competition.

    Long ago, power in the US was essentially uni-polar with Anglo-Americans or Wasps being dominant. And then, with the rise of certain key groups, the power became multi-polar: Wasps, Jews, Catholic ethnics, big city Irish, blacks, and etc.

    But then, over time, the only truly dominant group became the Jews who are only 2% of the population. So, US power got weird and wonky. Jews sensed this strange state of affairs and pushed homomania to normalize elite minority privilege & dominance.

    Now, when a nation that is 98% non-Jewish becomes slavish to the uni-polar power of Jews, something is wrong. But it is far far worse when the 2% that has uni-polar power over the US wields the might of American military, finance, and soft power to dominate the entire world. Jews are 2% of US population but less than 0.2% of the World Population.

    With Jews as uni-polar rulers of the US that rules the entire world, it means the 0.2% of the world is dominating and dictating affairs all around the world. Is that crazy or what?

    Rise of uni-polar minority power in the US was dangerous. If the US weren’t powerful nation, it wouldn’t matter. Suppose Jews are a small minority in Peru and totally dominate that country. Well, big deal! Peru is not a world a power, and its power would hardly affect the whole world. It’s like overseas Chinese minority dominates the economy of Philippines, but it doesn’t matter since Philippines is a minor nation. Chinese economic might in Philippines is a local affair.

    In contrast, the US is a uni-polar super-power that dominates the world. So, the group that controls the US will control the world. And when a group that is only 2% controls America, it means US power is being used to serve very narrow tribal interests. And given Jews are less than 0.2% of world population, it means most of the world is controlled by 0.2% of the population. That is crazy.

    Because US dominates the world and since there is no other power in the near future that can counter US power, what we need, at the very least, is multi-polarity WITHIN the US. That way, if power inside the US is divided among various groups, US policy toward the world won’t be so narrowly tribal, so ethno-neurotic or ethneurotic, so paranoid, and so nutsoid.

    In the past, the power of religion served as effective counter to Jewish power since most Americans weren’t Jewish. Jews used to fear & respect Protestant and Catholic power as social, demographic, moral, and cultural forces.

    And Wasps used to have confidence in their history and identity. And various ethnic groups, such as Italians and Irish, had their own sense of ethnic interests and community. But as white gentiles all turned into ‘white bread’ consumers, they came to share in Wasp ‘guilt’ and ‘privilege’ and came to be morally discredited and forced to hang their heads in shame. As for blacks, even though their power was on the rise since the Civil Rights Movement, their cultural-social implosion meant ruined neighborhoods and social pathology. And black leaders are all retards. There is the power of Rap, but it’s mostly entertainment and lacking in institutional power. As for browns, their numbers has risen, but most Meso-Americans are lacking in agency and talent. They fail to make it the elites. As for Asians, they do well in school , and some do reach higher ranks in society, but they lack individuality and the spark to gain real power. So, Jewish power, aided by homo proxy power, is the ONLY power in the US. And that means the Great Might of the US is used to serve narrow Jewish-Zionist interests. And that is dangerous.

    Is the rise of Trump a kind of return of multi-polarity in US politics? Is it a return of white identity and power? It is a scaling back of neo-con Zionist domination of foreign policy? We’ll have to see.

    Anyway, if the world power cannot be multi-polar with several Great Powers, we need the US power to be multi-polar with several ethnic/cultural powers. Without them, the world will be about Jews dominating the US that dominates the globe. Too much power. Dangerous.

    ===========———————

  18. Yeah there was a fair bit of gaslighting going on. The Press and other PTB were greatly concerned of the number of white voters who normally don’t bother might this year actually show up.
    The ginned up polls were designed to make it seem pointless to these folks.

  19. I believe that is what really did happen the thousands of Whites they expected to stay home turned out heck even my Uncle who was thoroughly a non-voter voted for Trump.

Comments are closed.