Live Thread: Oregon Primary

Prediction

I think it is going to be Trump. What do you think?

Note: The races in Kentucky and Oregon tonight will be much more interesting on the Democratic side. I’ve seen polls which show Hillary leading in Oregon. I think they mail in their ballots there so I am not expecting any interesting exit polls.

I find it hard to believe that Sanders could win in a landslide in West Virginia, but is somehow losing to Hillary in Oregon of all places. If Sanders can’t win Portlandia, he should drop out now.

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89 Comments

  1. I’ve been doing a little bit of thinking this morning.

    Why did Trump succeed when the candidate in the last two cycles that most of us were attracted to at least to some degree, that being, Ron Paul, did not?

    I don’t think it’s hard at all. Three very simple reasons:

    (1) Trump was able to keep Ron Paul’s foreign policy rationality without coming off as someone who sounds like he sympathizes with the enemy/adversary, as Ron Paul did at times

    (2) Trump actually believes in immigration enforcement as a matter of principle, while Ron Paul thinks it’s some massive abuse of state power

    And probably most crucial of all:

    (3) I want you to re-read this sentence 100 times, then get out a piece of paper and write it 100 times:

    There is no policy proposal that is so popular that people will endorse it if it also means taking way grandma’s Social Security check.

    Okay, you’re back. Yes, I meant it about the part about re-reading it 100 times and then writing it 100 times. So I’m going to presume that you have.

    Applied to the politics of this year, Trump was smart enough to avoid the libertarian economic cult.

    • Our Mission:
      Get people to admit that low-IQ, high T Mestizo/Somalian & Arab Muslim replacements are NOT going to pay for Granny’s check, or Medicare.

      • That’s just a smokescreen most White and normal folks can see through already.

        The real reason they’re here is to “replace”, aka White Genocide, us. White and normal folks are starting to see this, albeit somewhat dimly. Our mission is to get them to see it unmistakably.

    • “Why did Trump succeed when the candidate in the last two cycles that
      most of us were attracted to at least to some degree, that being, Ron
      Paul, did not?”

      Maybe RP lacked DT’s charisma. Oh, and a few billions dollars.

      Only you could stretch a post on 2016s Oregon primary into a Ron Paul bashing.

      BTW, who were you supporting in 2012? Ah that’s right, Mittens.

        • I don’t think ‘Question Diversity’ is Jackie Boi. The writing style is different. I have my own suspicion about what’s going on, though.

          • QD is correct in his assessment of why Trump has succeeded, and why RP did not. There are other reasons, as well, It doesn’t matter now, though.

          • I’m just wondering why it’s so persistently relevant at OD, to one or possibly two individuals who both play with their identity, one of which is an idiot. It seems foolish.

          • Marc – ya got me. I loved Ron Paul. I was dismayed by Rand’s betrayal. I don’t have any idea why any-one would be obsessed with either, at this stage in the game. It’s just plain weird.

          • The only explanation I can think of for why some posters here are so desperate to sweep the libertarian disaster under the rug is butthurt. Their libertarian cult not only didn’t go anywhere but was also pretty damaging. You realize that, so you hide your embarrassment by demanding that others silence themselves on the topic.

            It’s completely relevant to call out these libertarian loons for the damage they’ve done, especially considering that their latest champion just ran in a presidential primary.

            Support cutting Social Security and abolishing the minimum wage? Welcome to never being relevant in politics again. Trump won because he wasn’t a libertarian, period. Learn from that and use it to beat down any future libertarian loon who would seduce the conservative public with policies guaranteed to lose.

        • Or his money and contacts, which is the only thing that kept the media from RPing him.

          Michele Bachman, Mitt Romney, where’s the diff?

          But I’m sure there are others here who remember your ‘Romney Now because O’ schtick.

          • I’m not positively certain about the timeline but I’d have prefered Romney to have beaten Obama.

            I don’t recall caring too much about who the Republicans sent to capitulate to him.

            Who could have predicted him going foetal in debate two after he crushed Obama in debate one.

          • He didn’t really crush Obama so much as Obama wasn’t prepared. Romney, like Ryan, just repeated factually incorrect neocon talking points in rapid fire (Benghazi Benghazi Benghazi!!!!), putting Obama off-guard. However, Biden crushed Ryan and made him look like a punk when he tried the same thing on him. Perhaps instead of employing the “Benghazi Benghazi Benghazi” strategy, he should have questioned the wisdom of attacking Libya in the first place. That is something that Trump could credibly (and successfully) do against Hillary in a debate.

      • “Maybe RP lacked DT’s charisma. Oh, and a few billions dollars.”

        Donald Trump spent a pittance on his campaign, so being a billionaire didn’t really aid him. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ron Paul spent as much or outspent him. I also doubt “charisma” alone explains his victory.
        Also, Ron Paul being a cultish libertarian who supported free trade, didn’t really go out of his way to oppose illegal immigration, ranted about the gold standard, and proposed to cut the department of education didn’t really appeal to most sane people.

        Paul’s only real appeal was that he opposed an unpopular neocon foreign policy while projecting a bit of integrity amidst a sea of political corruption and double-talk. Rand Paul sabotaged himself by moderating on the only real things that made his father somewhat popular, while also embracing his father’s unpopular economic ideas.

        • Just because you don’t legally fund your own campaign doesn’t mean that having billions of bucks doesn’t influence it.

    • Note that most people who supported RP didn’t give a damn about any ‘libertarian cult’. Why do you insist on this? They supported him because he was the only alternative to the system owned flunkies we’ve had inflicted on us for decades. And he had the regime worried enough to engage in big time vote fraud in the primaries.

      It’s over and done with now, so what’s the motive for this repetition (on someone else’s blog and not on your own) when libertarianism isn’t even on the realistic political horizon?

      And I think your reasons are wrong. Trump won the election with THE WALL! All else has been icing.

      • If Ron Paul in 2012 promised a border wall and the 101st Airborne on the border, and to deport all the illegals, and to decrease legal immigration, and then said that he wanted to repeal Social Security and Medicare, he would have gotten approximately five votes nationally.

          • Taken literally, Ron Paul never did say any of that. And taken literally, Paul Ryan doesn’t really want to “cut” SS/M either, he just wants to run it through special interests that donate to many Republican politicians (insurance, Wall Street), so that they get a cut on the way from government to beneficiary, which of course will actually make those programs more expensive.

            But these days, you can’t play around with an ideology, that being economic libertarianism, which, left to its own devices, would have never implemented Social Security and Medicare.

            And I’m sticking my guns that Trump being smart enough never to do so was a major reason why he was able actually to win states and Ron Paul never won one in two tries.

          • You write as f “economic libertarianism” is some force to be reckoned with. It is not!

            The reasons Trump won where RP didn’t are:

            1. Trump’s personality, money, contacts and understanding of how the world works, as opposed to RP’s simpler comprehension.

            2. The (((GOPe))) cheating Honest Ron.

            It has NOTHING to do with SS or MC.

    • Ron Paul was kicked out because he’s anti-zionist. It’s that simple. We are controlled by Jews. If you come from a position that does not support and back Israel you will be blocked.

      • Ron wanted to privatize SS. Wallstreet is Jews. Nominal support or criticism of Israel Proper is not really that critical. Giving Grannies pension to Shylock is what did it.

    • Lack of Charisma. That’s the missing ingredient. Also he misdiagnosed the issues slightly. I recall the banter about his libertarianism on the left was that it masked deep seated racism. Well, I don’t think it did. He’s a minority worshiper these days along with his son. Ron literally had faith in Libertarianism.

      • And that’s another thing. People tend not to trust very high level executive public power to people who think and act and react too ideologically. Trump got criticized for not being ideologically pure enough, turns out those who were accusing him of that were doing him a favor and they didn’t even know it.

  2. I’ve also been seeing and reading a lot of baseless analysis, (cough cough, Drudge), wondering why HRC is the presumptive nominee if Bern keeps rolling up win after win. It’s not that hard to figure out, but it’s an answer that a lot people would rather not think about.

    Even after OR and KY today, if Bern wins them both, HRC will still be leading in total contests won, total delegates gained as a result of contests (not counting supers), and raw votes.

    Swapping out Obama 2008 for Bern 2016, Democrat Presidential politics in 2016 are looking a lot like the same of 2008, with one YUGE exception: The blacks are with HRC this year, while they were with Obama in 2008. And that proves that these days, the path to the Democrat nomination goes through old black church ladies in states with enough blacks to matter.

    • The nomination is also about momentum. It is hard to nominate someone whose best days are behind them.

        • Not likely. Countenance has a brain, for one thing. He also posts here under ‘countenance’ and isn’t the type to “fool” people for no reason.

          • This should drive it home.

            Notice the like avatars.

            I keep a second Disqus account called countenance as a backup in case I have problems posting elsewhere as Question Diversity; sometimes, some other sites plonk my comments just because of my provocative screen name.

          • Why is there such a qualitative difference between QD posts here and those on your blog?

            And I’ve never seen you bash RP on your blog. Why reinforce the ninny here, as if it was relevant now.

          • I have heaped plenty of opprobrium on both Ron Paul and Rand Paul on my own blog. You must have missed it. Then again, I have written more than 18,000 posts, so you probably did miss it.

            I also don’t think I’m much if at all different between writing blog posts and writing blog comments.

          • Well, you’re probably right that I just missed it. But I’ve read your blog for a considerable time. Somehow I had a higher opinion of you, as countenance, before I found this out.

            The reason I mistook you for JR is because no one else here devotes all their posting time to bashing Ron Paul, way way way way past the time it is at all relevant. It is of course easy to find ammo against Rand, cuck that he is. But it’s, I don’t know, either dishonorable or unmanly to go after Ron non-stop when, at a time that the atmosphere was quite different – we were literally being smothered by regime stooges – he was the only one, who stood for something much better, however imperfect, but was defeated as usual by the behemoth. It’s kind of like kicking Dixie, unceasingly, for losing the war.

            Btw, is Trump perfect?

            I do wish you and your pen pal would get over the idea that all RP supporters were libertarian cultists. It’s quite wrong and very unfair in allocating zero space to critiquing all the system stooges Ron Paul opposed. Mostly though, I wish you’d get over it.

          • I still can’t think of any other reason than shame leads to this obsession with RP, in 2016. Do you look at Romney and the other GOPe stooges today and feel so much shame at having actually supported them that you either find some release or are embarrassed into attracting attention away from your cuckservative past? What other reason can there be for this irrelevant obsession?

          • “I still can’t think of any other reason than shame leads to this obsession with RP”

            I still can’t think of any valid reason why this important topic should be ignored. Maybe it’s because Ron Paul supporters are ashamed at how they fell for that nonsense and, as a result, now demand that anyone pointing out how loony it was be silenced to avoid looking bad themselves.

          • I remember back in 2008 the Ron Paul cult posting on Alt right sights projecting their own delusions on him being some populist when the only reason they loved him out of their anti-zionist 24/7 hobby horse. I remember seeing articles of how “Diebold must have rigged the elections” as if there was this overwhelming support of the guy. I actually asked people around my workplace about the primaries and guess what NOT A SINGLE PERSON HAD EVER HEARD OF RON PAUL. The fact the guy was a total unknown outside of the libertarian cult, and the fact that if he was known, his libertarian stances on taking away social security from grandma immediately disqualified his support from 99% of the population with more important things on their mind than hating Israel tells me supporting this guy was a dead end.

          • The problem with the people you write about is that they assume that dogmatic foreign policy neutralitarianism is a dog whistle for anti-Zionism and anti-Semitism, (thanks in no small part because the ADL makes that contention), when in reality, that cigar is just a cigar, nothing more.

            As far as Diebold, why couldn’t they do anything about Trump? Of course, I’m being rhetorical, and by “rhetorical,” I mean snarky.

            In a lot of ways, I liked Ron Paul and I like Rand Paul, but neither one were/are Presidential material. Sure, Rand is young enough and has demonstrated enough of a light-on-his feet ability to “grow” into populism and nationalism; the problem is, he doesn’t have a command presence personality, and Trump is getting people really used to the concept of alphas as head of state.

  3. Here is a small–and disconcerting–snapshot of the all-too-typical Oregon voter that was posted by a commenter on the Thinking Housewife blog back on October 17,2014:

    “Decadent Portland”
    http://www.thinkinghousewife.com/wp/2014/10/decadent-portland/

    It is sobering to realize that a state as beautiful as Oregon is is infested with so many hopeless individuals.I suppose I shouldn’t be too quick to cast aspersions on our crackpot neighbor to the north,though,since we in California are burdened with our own repellent share of fruitcakes, freaks,deadbeats and dope fiends.

    Whether or not this type of electorate will deliver OR for Trump by any significantly large margin will be interesting to see.

  4. Nevada is now in open warfare between the Shrillary devotees, and Bernie the Jew’s Commie Army.

  5. Towards a new discourse.

    Washington Consensus is built on Liberals being Illiberals and Conservatives being Unconservatives. Both are, however, totally united in their pro-Zio-Globalism.

    US politics isn’t about Liberals vs Conservatives.

    It is about Illibs versus Uncons.

    Illiberals use PC to undermine true liberalism(freedom of thought & expression and rule of law), and Unconservatives undermine true conservatism(respect for tradition, continuity, and rule of law).

    So, even when ‘Liberals’ win, we have Illiberalism. Even when ‘Conservatives’ win, we have Unconservatism.

    So, we need to talk about Illibs and Uncons.

  6. They are trying to steal Kentucky from Bernie!

    Come on Trump, get in there and call it “rigged”!

      • A recount is better than a slight Bernie win, more divisive!

        The Jewish Daily Kos just slammed Bernie for not repudiating violence, and opened up a shit storm rift.

        The Bernie people are going to have to decide, do they want a real shot in 4 years? Then Trump has to win this year. (worse is better for the left)

        • Best outcome is a revolt of Bernie supporters. The more she continues to lose state after state, the more she stays in the lead, which is infuriating Bernie supporters, and it is also hilarious as well!

          • Here’s a quote from the Daily Kos comment section:

            “all he [Bernie] is doing is inciting people for his own purposes and ignoring the violence his own people are inflicting.

            If the ‘revolutionaries’ don’t like it then gtfo and vote for trump.”

            If Trump makes Clinton the candidate of War, then they will vote for Trump!

          • I’m headed out for dinner and drinks. Hopefully Bernie takes Oregon. I’ll get a table near the bar so I might be able to see the results.

            Bernie winning states and being denied the nomination will cause maximum chaos for Hillary.

            And it is amusing to watch the unwashed Bernie fans get all bent out of shape.

          • They are on the cusp of realizing that Social Democracy is a white thing.

          • Have you got an account registered there? No need to reveal anything specific obviously. I’d suggest hammering the crap out of them come the convention.

        • I think that everyone here should register an account on Kos and troll as Bernie Supporters. I’ve suggested it on TRS. These savages will end up shooting each other before long.

      • Or perhaps a loss of white Democrats who would ave otherwise voted Bernie to party switching?

      • HRC wins the state by 1800 votes and Jefferson County (Louisville) by 19,000 votes, back out Jefferson County and Bern wins. It’s the old black church ladies again, the demographic that Democrat Presidential politics goes through.

        • the crooked Black urban Demoncrat precincts always report late and last; this so they can figure how many votes they have to gin up in order to steal a close election. Se also Philadelphia, Chicago, St. Louis, etc.

  7. Sanders said something interesting about shots being fired into one of his campaign offices.

    Amazing how that didn’t become a big story!

  8. Sanders appears to be trouncing Hillary in Oregon. Not a bad night all things considered.

    As Oregon goes so goes California? Or too many anti-whites?

    • Lulz! 8 what? He’s 74 now.
      Murka isn’t going to last that long anyways. Never mind the ancient Commie Jew. Trump’s a stop gap. Nothing else. This ‘lection cycle is pretty much the Last Waltz, anyways.

      • They don’t know that and we don’t have to tell them. We just need to plant seeds that will germinate in the privacy of the voting booth.

        A few percent can make all the difference.

  9. Trump has telegraphed betrayal so many times he’s not even interesting anymore. Chris is right: Bernie the Jew is now where the action is. After the Nevada fracas, there’s a fair chance his Red Guards may thoroughly trash the Demoncrat Convention. All Trump will do at Cleveland is spend 4 days bloviating about how he’s going to make ‘Murka “great again”

    • “All Trump will do at Cleveland is spend 4 days bloviating about how he’s going to make ‘Murka “great again”…”

      You presume the Deicides are not alive any longer (I wish) or that their wet dream of world conquest (Protocols) have changed (they haven’t).

      Or that Lyin’ Ted’s FB ‘I WILL be president… some day’ eerie speech is not still an indication of megalomania, or what Ann B calls ‘Diabolical Narcissism.’

      Or that the swarming of Meximidgets to ‘rush citizenship is somehow normal, good, and that ‘our strength is in our diversity.’

      Nope. I won’t sleep, nor ‘will my sword rest in my hand’ until the Wall is built, Trump is Emperor, and the Jews are excised from this land. Jerusalem isn’t built in a day. It takes DECADES for just ONE victory, and we ain’t there yet!

  10. Oregon’s vote isn’t fully in yet, apparently the way Oregon does things, it takes a long time. But, by Oregon standards, Democrat turnout wasn’t that much higher than Republican turnout, surprising because we all know how deep blue Oregon supposedly is, too for the fact that the Republican race is substantively over while Bernie still theoretically has a chance. I also noticed that in the three big rural counties in southeastern Oregon, (Lake, Harney, Malheur), where the land use and BLM issues (Bureau of Land Management, not Black Lies Matter) are hot, there were way many more votes cast in the Republican primary than the Democrat.

    • When I lived in Portland I got the impression that the eastern desert half of the state was a province of Mormon Utah. My co-workers who hailed from places like Umitilla and La Grande were Mormon. That part of the state was so sparsely populated that just one hipster neighborhood in Portlandia negated their vote.

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