If Marco Rubio won Florida, it would go down as the greatest upset in the history of polling. Donald Trump has led every single poll in Florida for months. Trump is winning by around 20 points in five polls which came out over the last 24 hours.
Trump wins Florida.
All signs point to Kasich winning Ohio. He is a popular governor there. He has a home state advantage with the Republican machine on his side. He has been in politics for over thirty years there and surely knows what he is doing. The polls suggest he has around a 5 point lead. Kasich has been using every debate as an opportunity to microtarget the moderate and liberal voters he needs to win in Ohio.
Kasich wins Ohio.
North Carolina was the first state where polling showed Trump had a lead. He has held that lead since July. All the polls show Trump winning North Carolina. He won South Carolina and Virginia. Trump has never lost a primary where he is polling over 40 percent.
Trump wins North Carolina.
Trump is winning Illinois in all the polls. It is an open primary state. If the events in Chicago had any impact, you would think it would be here. In Florida, a Monmouth poll showed that 22 percent of voters said that what happened in Chicago made them more likely to vote for Trump versus 11 percent who said it made them less likely. In Ohio, a Monmouth poll broke down as 66 percent saying it had no impact, 16 percent more likely to vote for Trump, and 14 percent less likely to vote for Trump.
Trump wins Illinois.
There haven’t been many polls in Missouri, but all have showed Trump winning the state and maintaining around a 7 point lead. It is an open primary state. Unlike Iowa, Kansas, and Oklahoma, Missouri has been plagued by racial conflict. Republicans in the St. Louis suburbs are suffering from a severe case of negro fatigue. My guess is that what happened in Chicago – combined with the ongoing crime wave which has made St. Louis the most dangerous city in the country – is much more likely to have resonated here than in Florida. Plus, I associate Missouri with the Baums.
Trump wins Missouri.
Note: There are two polls which have the race tied in Ohio. We need an overwhelming shitlord turnout to carry Ohio and put this away. Otherwise, I expect Kasich and Cruz will hang on through April.