I’m guessing there are significantly more White Catholics than non-White Catholics in Pennsylvania and the Midwestern battleground states.
“Yesterday, the Romney campaign told reporters that it expected to win at least some of the “blue states” in which it is now competing with Obama in the Midwest, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. The campaign did not give a specific reason for its optimism, but one thing these states have in common is a high proportion of Catholic voters. And Catholic voters have shifted dramatically towards Mitt Romney. . .
Today, that bubble has burst completely, and Obama is back down to a two-point lead, 48-46. (Few headlines this time from the mainstream media.)
Among white Catholics, Romney has jumped to a 14-point lead (54-40) after being tied with Obama in September in the poll.
To understand just how significant that is, consider that in 2008, Obama won Catholics by 9 percent (54 to 45) and lost white Catholics by just 5 percent (47 to 52). In 2004, the Catholic vote went narrowly to Bush overall (more widely among white Catholics), and in 2000 it went narrowly to Gore (and narrowly to Bush among white Catholics).
The 14-point lead Romney currently enjoys among white Catholics is almost without precedent.”
Note: Romney will be campaigning in Pennsylvania on Sunday.