BRA
The partisan composition of the electorate has changed dramatically since 2008, but many of the polls which have the presidential race tied in key states are using samples that are heavily slanted toward the Democrats:
“In 2008 Gallup found the party breakdown of the electorate to be 39 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans, and 31 percent independents. That ten-point advantage grew to twelve points when independents were asked which party they typically leaned to, with 54 percent identifying as Democrats and 42 percent Republicans. . . .
In the current tracking poll, Gallup finds the ten-point advantage for Democrats has now turned into a one-point Republican advantage. The current party breakdown is now 35 percent Democrats, 36 percent Republicans, and 29 percent independents. And just in like 2008, that one-point advantage increases when independents are asked which party they typically lean to, with 49 percent identifying as Republicans and 46 percent Democrats. That number backs up the trends in other polling showing Romney leading among independents by large margins.”
Note: Andrew Sullivan argues that the partisan breakdown is essentially unchanged from 2008.
Speaking of USELESS POLLS……
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/national/general/view/20121027ap_poll_majority_harbor_prejudice_against_blacks/srvc=home&position=recent
…Yet the Pro-Obama Media is always complaining that “minorities are under-represented in polls”.
Des Moines Register today endorsed The White Candidate. It endorsed Obama in 2008, and had not endorsed a Republican since Richard Nixon, until today.
NY Times libtards bust on Gallup in the comments:
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Jeff CLA
I’m also wondering why Silver doesn’t comment on the Gallup and Rasmussen party ID surveys for October. These are huge polls, with excellent track records and small error rates. They currently predict a 1 point GOP advantage (Gallup) and a 2.5 percent advantage (Ras). Given Romney’s constant and sizable lead with independents (another thing Silver never talks about), if these are even close to right, Obama will loose. He is currently trailing by a point in the agregators, which reflect a 4.4 Democratic partisan advantage.
TonyToledo
He has. But since you are trolling you haven’t read it. I recalled Rasmussen had Sharon Angle up by 4 points the day before the election and Harry Reid ended up winning the seat by 5 points. A 9 point swing AINT excellent. Also, you do know the president is selected by electoral college? Go look at what man has over 270 electoral votes in the RCP or any other group looking at the electoral college.
Oct. 27, 2012 at 9:30 p.m.RECOMMENDED2
Angelina SimonNY, NY
FLAG
ALL other pollsters have a much different breakdown.
Gallup weights its sample for measures party identification, but doesn’t put much emphasis on it in their model. They say their model for 2012, with the same demographics as 2008, is 36 percent Republican; 35 percent Democrat; and 29 percent Independent. The poll of 705 other polls shows party identification as 29 percent Republican; 36 percent Democrat; and 31 percent Independent. What has happened since the summer is a sharp drop in the “Independent” category – giving gains to Democrats and Republicans pretty evenly, with the Democrats gaining a tiny bit more.
Gallup is flawed, and so is Rasmussen.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/
That nro piece is garbage. I couldn’t follow what numbers were supposedly put into which model or how the results lead to the conclusions.
If they really wanted to convice folks they would do more than treat it like a black box.
We all know this pollistatistical data is treated scientifically by the pros…why don’t they report it as such? I’m still going with the rcp model.
I don’t know if I’d classify these polls as ridiculous, but they certainly are eye-opening. 58% of Israeli Jews believe that Israel practices apartheid against Israeli Arabs, with only 31% disagreeing. So by nearly two to one, they think that their own country is a racist, segregationist state.
And it’s not like they disagree with these apartheid-like policies. 49% want the Israeli government to treat Jews better than Arabs, and 58% want the government to give preference to Jews in public sector employment. In other words, affirmative action for Jews and official discrimination against non-Jews.
Okay maybe that’s understandable in a Jewish state, but 47% want part of Israel’s Arab population transferred to the Palestinian Authority. That is nearly half the population who are in favour of the ethnic cleansing of Israeli citizens of Arab descent. Contrast that with American Jews, who are the biggest cheerleaders for the Third World immigration invasion designed to leave American whites as a discriminated-against minority in the country their ancestors built. An ethnostate for me, but not for thee.
And at least a third of Israeli Jews want to strip their Arab fellow citizens of voting rights, and 69% would deny the vote to resident Palestinians if Israel illegally annexes the West Bank. They want to create a permanent class of helots with no political rights whatsoever, and they’re not shy about expressing their views.
Does the ADL know about this?
A majority of Israeli Jews would support an apartheid regime in Israel and marginalise Palestinians in case the West Bank was annexed, a survey shows. A majority also explicitly favours discrimination against the state’s Arab citizens. The study by public opinion firm Dialog, which is headed by Tel Aviv Prof Camil Fuchs, was commissioned New Israel Fund’s Yisraela Goldblum Fund based on a sample of 503 interviewees.
Survey results indicate that 59 per cent of Israeli Jews wants preference for Jews over Arabs in public sector employment. Almost half (49 per cent) wants the state to treat Jewish citizens better than Arab ones; 42 per cent do not want to live in the same building with Arabs and 42 per cent do not want their children in the same classes as Arab children.
At least a third of Jews wants a law barring Israeli Arabs from voting for the Knesset and a large majority of 69 per cent objects to giving 2.5 million Palestinians the right to vote if Israel annexes the West Bank.
A large majority, 74 per cent, is in favour of separate roads for Israelis and Palestinians in the West Bank. Of these, 24 per cent believe separate roads are “a good situation” and 50 per cent believe they are “a necessary situation.”
About 47 per cent wants part of Israel’s Arab population to be transferred to the Palestinian Authority and 36 per cent support transferring some of the Arab towns from Israel to the Palestinian Authority in exchange for keeping some of the Jewish settlements on the West Bank.
Among Jews, 58 per cent already believes Israel practices apartheid against Arabs. Only 31 per cent think such a system is not in force here.
Over a third (38 per cent) of Jews wants Israel to annex the territories with settlements on them, whilst 48 per cent object.
The survey results, published in the daily Haaretz, distinguish among the various communities in Israeli society: secular, observant, religious, ultra-Orthodox and former Soviet immigrants. The ultra-Orthodox, in contrast to those who described themselves as religious or observant, hold the most extreme positions against the Palestinians. An overwhelming majority (83 per cent) of Haredim are in favour of segregated roads and 71 per cent are in favour of transfer.
The ultra-Orthodox are also the most anti-Arab group: 70 per cent of them support legally barring Israeli Arabs from voting, 82 per cent support preferential treatment from the state toward Jews, and 95 per cent are in favour of discrimination against Arabs in job hiring.
Secular Israelis appear to be the least racist: 68 per cent of them would not mind having Arab neighbours in their apartment building, 73 per cent would not mind Arab students in their children’s class and 50 per cent believe Arabs should not be discriminated against in admission to workplaces.
Russian-Israelis are in the middle, showing the highest rate of satisfaction with life in Israel (77 per cent). On average, 69 per cent of Israelis are satisfied with life in Israel.
Some 59 per cent believe apartheid is practiced “in a few” or “many fields” and 11 per cent do not know.
In commenting the results, journalist Gideon Levy said that the picture that emerges shows an Israel that “is a very, very sick” with “Israelis [. . .] openly, shamelessly, and guiltlessly defining themselves as nationalistic racists.”
Jew leaders contacted by AsiaNews note however that the Israel’s picture is not the most important thing. Facts on the ground count more.
Since Israel’s creation, Arabs inside Israel have suffered discrimination, Palestinians on the West Bank and Gaza have had to endure intolerance, and Arab rights and land have been trampled upon.
For these Jews, Israeli policies are not the expression of “ideological racism,” but the result of naked power relations between victors and vanquished.
http://www.asianews.it/news-en/Most-Israeli-Jews-for-apartheid-regime-in-Israel-26166.html
The 538 blog is a fascinating display of libtard arrogance, bigotry, and intolerance. I read a lot of the comments in these threads:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/26/oct-25-the-state-of-the-states/
And I find it impossible to miss that libtards have an extra helping of the denial gene, over and above the generous helping most people have. Set the Jew and his tea leaf cult aside for a moment (it’s amazing how infallible this pencil-neck is to them after predicting all of two elections accurately) and look at how they respond to people saying they think Romney will win. They do everything but acknowledge the possibility that their security blanket could be wrong. They call people trolls for showing up in the thread and saying “well, I actually think the data points to a Romney win.” Funny to watch, kinda. I mean, how much math do we really need to do to come up with an election prediction? Rube Goldberg says…lots! So much in fact, that he can’t show you all of it…
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/331854/national-polls-vs-ohio-polls-which-right-josh-jordan
As mentioned above, in current Ohio polls Democrats have a party ID sample advantage of 6.3 points. In 2008 Democrats had a 5 point turnout advantage in Ohio. That means that while national polls have the turnout advantage down 2.6 points, in Ohio it has actually increased 1.3 points. It is almost impossible to think that while the nationwide party ID advantage of Democrats has dropped since the wave election of 2008, Ohio has actually increased over the last four years.
If that’s not enough, the Ohio polls have actually become more Democratic since the post-DNC polls that gave Obama a significant bounce which led many pundits to declare Romney’s chances in Ohio DOA. Of all Ohio polls from 9/7-9/19, Obama held an average lead of 4.2 points with a Democratic party ID advantage of 5.7 points. Today Obama leads by 2.1 points with a party ID advantage of 6.3 points. In the last month, while Romney has had surges in polls all over the country, the polling in Ohio has actually found more Democrats even while Obama’s lead was cut in half.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/ohio-the-bulls-eye-state-obama-romney-aim-full-arsenals-at-vital-electoral-prize/2012/10/27/45322d26-2054-11e2-ba31-3083ca97c314_story.html
In the aftermath of the debates, Romney’s campaign has been infused with fresh energy. Some recent polls showed the president with a slender advantage, but the newest survey, released Saturday night by a consortium of Ohio newspapers, showed Obama and Romney now tied at 49 percent each. The consortium’s poll last month had Obama ahead by five points.
If you’re really bored, try counting how many times these things happen:
1.) A dissenter is called a troll for simply dissenting (rude dissenters are trolls, polite dissenters are trolls; one thing is clear, all dissenters are trolls).
2.) A dissenter is answered with the “blind them with science” (appeal to authority) fallacy; as if an inscrutable model is anyone’s fault but Silver’s; he’s the one that’s set himself up as Mr. Prognosticator – if he didn’t want a bunch of innumerate boobs commenting (and more importantly, influenced) he would’ve gone with a different strategy; i.e., confined himself to academic circles. “You just aren’t capable of understanding the brilliance of Silver’s model!”
3.) A Silver cultist freely admits how much Silver’s tea leaves mean to him psychologically – he’s the Dem base’s Xanax until Nov. 6th.
4.) A snarky, arrogant, “we’re above the fray, this place is about the numbers and we’re above partisanship” sits right next to a snarky, arrogant partisan Dem post that gets no comment, because everyone’s too busy piling on the Republicans for making partisan posts.
5.) Credentialism is passed off as rigor.
6.) A libtard freely admits there’s really no falsifiability to Silver’s model as far as he’s concerned, because after all, he said there’s a 30% chance Romney would win.
7.) A libtard projects libtard qualities onto his enemies (Republicans are violent and prone to intimidation and vote-rigging, they’re criminals, Republicans create their own reality and hate it when critics or facts intrude, the media and establishment have a pro-Republican bias, Republicans live by the “any means necessary” rule, etc.).
There are more tidbits there, but those are the ones I remember off the top of my head. What emerges most clearly is the hard core libtard’s overwhelming desire to talk only to other libtards, and to escape the depressing facts and possibilities of reality. It was also fun to see how very, very sensitive they are to media reports they don’t like.
I especially liked the part where, in response to the endless reminders of how closely Silver has called TWO WHOLE ELECTIONS, one dissenter points out that he did this in one of those elections by making a big move at he last minute, just before the election (I’ll be watching to see if he does the same this year), and got only crickets chirping in reply.
Somebody should mail those threads to Kevin MacDonald, lol. He could use them for a new chapter on “Jewish Messianism.”
Also, I find the tone-deafness of libtards to irony very amusing. They routinely say the most cliched, stereotyped shit you can imagine. E.g., if I went in to tell them the pencil-neck is a pencil-neck, aside from the rigorous responses, I have no doubt I’d get the “Rethugs are knuckle-dragging neanderthals, of course they hate anyone with a pencil-neck” response more than once.
Er, no, he’s just a pencil-neck; hate to break it to you, but niggers vote Dem, even the gang-bangers…