We don’t even have to wait to election day … OD is confident enough to project that Mitt Romney will be elected president of the South in a landslide.
Romney has surged in the national polls in large part because he won over the Southerners who opposed him in the primary after he spanked Obama in the first debate. He is winning the South by 22 points. He is also doing surprisingly well in the Northeast because he has “a pseudo-home region advantage.”
In August, a PPRI study found a huge regional gap in White working class attitudes toward Romney. Back then, Romney was leading Obama 62 percent to 22 percent with Southern White working class voters, but only 46 percent to 41 percent in the West, and 42 percent to 38 percent in the Northeast.
In the Midwest where the pivotal swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio will decide the 2012 presidential election, Obama was leading Romney 44 percent to 36 percent with White working class voters.
Forget Hispanics. Romney is actually doing better in Colorado, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina than the Midwest. It is the White working class voters in the Midwest who are the only force keeping Obama in the White House right now.
“There are a number of black Southern Democrats in Congress, representing districts that are substantially or majority black. But should Barrow lose, there will not be a single white Democrat left in Congress from the Deep South. Zero. Think about that for a moment.
In 2008, Barack Obama beat John McCain by 19 points in the Northeast, 17 points in the West, and 10 points in the Midwest. But McCain won the South by 9 points. This year, in a closer election, Mitt Romney will win the South by much more. Last week Gallup broke out their survey by region, and even though Gallup has been showing results more favorable to Romney than every other poll, it’s the relative differences that are striking: they showed Obama winning the East and Midwest by 4 points and the West by 6, but losing the South by 22 points.
In 2008, Obama got the votes of only 10 percent of whites in Alabama and 11 percent in Mississippi. John Kerry did nearly as badly with white Southerners; this isn’t just a story about race. But if Barrow falls, it may be a while before another white Democrat can win down in Dixie.”
Note: In 2008, John McCain also won the White vote in every Southern state. Even though he lost Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina, Obama only won (including transplants) 35 percent of the White vote in North Carolina, 39 percent in Virginia, and 42 percent in Florida.