It’s over for Obama in North Carolina and Florida. In terms of early voting, Obama has the edge in Ohio, but Romney has the edge in Florida and Wisconsin. In Virginia, PPP has Obama up by 2 and Rasmussen has Romney up by 3.
Note: Obama’s lead in Ohio has evaporated. The PPP poll has him up 1 and the Gravis poll has a 47-47 tie. BTW, the Gravis poll is assuming a D+9 turnout advantage over Republicans, which would be a greater Democratic turnout for Obama than the 2008 election.
This election is going to be decided by White working class voters, especially White working class women, in the Rust Belt that stretches from Allentown, PA to Des Moines, IA. In spite of all the talk about “the Hispanic vote,” Romney is doing well in Florida, Nevada, and Colorado, and he will likely win Florida and Colorado, and Virginia and North Carolina too.
In order to win the presidential election, Obama can concede New Hampshire and the South (North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Missouri), but he has to win Nevada, while holding Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and Ohio.
In the RCP No Toss Up Map, Obama is squeaking out a 277 victory over a Romney 261 loss. The RCP No Toss Up Map assumes that Obama holds all of jeppo’s “Cold States” while losing the “Warm States” to Romney.