Limits To Growth: Neo-Slavery

Malthusian World

As I mentioned in the comments, Richard Heinberg speculates that slavery might be restored in his book Peak Everything:

“In the U.S., as recently as 1850, domesticated animals – horses, oxen, and mules – were responsible for over two-thirds of physical work supporting the economy. Today the percentage is negligible: virtually all work is done by fuel-fed machines. Slavery was a strategy for capturing human muscle power, and the end of most formal slavery during the 19th century was more or less inevitable when Class D tools became cheaper than human slaves – or domesticated animals, for that matter. …

The extraction of coal, and especially of oil and natural gas – substances representing millions of years of accumulation of past biotic energy – has often provided a spectacular net energy profit. With fossil fuels and modern machinery, only 2 percent of the population now needs to farm in order to support the rest of society, enabling the flourishing of a growing middle class composed of dizzying array of specialists.

Increasing specialization was also enabled by a flourishing of different types of machines, and over the past few decades that differentiation was itself in turn fueled (quite literally) by the availability of cheap energy to make the machines go … These tools were, in a sense, alive: they consumed a kind of food, in the form of coal or oil, and had their own internal metabolism. …

That scale is difficult to comprehend without using familiar examples. Think for a moment of the effort required to push, for only a few feet, an automobile that has run out of gas. Now imagine pushing it 20 miles. This is, of course, the service provided by a single gallon of gasoline, which contains the energy equivalent to at least six weeks of human labor (much more than this by some accounts). The amount of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene fuels used in the U.S. in one day has the energy equivalent of roughly 20,000,000 person/years of work. If the building of the Great Pyramid required 10,000 people working for 20 years, then the petroleum based energy used in the US on an average day could – in principle, given the necessary stone and machinery – build 100 Great Pyramids. Of course, we don’t use our oil for this purpose: instead we use it mostly to push millions of metal cars along roadways so that we can get to and from jobs, malls, restaurants, and video rental stores …

If Class D tools fueled by cheap oil eliminated drudgery, life without abundant extrasomatic energy will imply more labor – certainly for food production. The return of slavery is a frighteningly real possibility. Such nightmare scenarios can only be averted by careful, hard, cooperative work.”

About Hunter Wallace 10108 Articles
Founder and Editor-in-Chief of Occidental Dissent

48 Comments

  1. For the record, we are already living in a period of neo- slavery. What else do you call it when all the laws favor women, negros, beaners and queers over White men?

  2. “Hunter Wallace says:
    July 12, 2012 at 3:12 am
    If Kunstler and Heinberg are right, we’re on the cusp of the North American Middle Ages.”

    I’m a big fan of the European Middle Ages. Every-one’s taught a LOT of nonsense about how awful everything was.

    It WASN”T.

    They had their Black Plague, ya know. Kilt off a third of the population of Europe. In some places – the Black Palgue killed off half.

    Changed everything.

    The survivors got a whole new lease on life. They were stronger, and better.

    Well we have a Black Plague, as well. And the same thing will happen again.

  3. Whites are already wage-slaves for lazy niggers.

    What was that Enoch Powell said about the whip hand?

  4. Barb,

    I’ve seen projections that by 2030 the world will want 100 million barrels of oil a day. Of that, Alberta tar sands, which is supposed to save us all, when fully ramped up will be making 4 million of those hundred million barrels wanted.

    100 million is the number I use in my amateur speculations about the world in the next few decades, so that doesn’t come as a surprise. I’ve never heard anyone claim Alberta or any one particular oil field is going to “save us all,” though. The point is simply that the production from new fields and new sources of oil equivalent will supplant the declining production from old fields. That could be wrong, I’ll grant, but it just doesn’t seem to me the slam dunk case that peakoilers claim it is.

    Ah, but because manufacturing has been gutted by offshoring to China, the housing boom was very nearly the only significant driver of U.S. economy left. That’s why this housing downturn hurt so much worse than all the others we’ve had prior.

    Well, I’d say the reason it has hurt so much is that the financial shenanigans involved were so extraordinary. Despite that, though, per capita GDP is not far off the pre-recession peak, and should exceed it next year. Please remember, regardless of your feelings about offshoring, manufacturing etc, income is income and if that income is being earned then something is being produced.

    Well, there will be recoveries after each price spike. But each recovery will top out at a lower high than the previous, when demand again bumps up against the new, continuing lower oil supply level and causes another demand-destroying oil price spike and subsequent econ downturn.

    Look, this is just raw unfounded speculation. Look at the rest of the world, woman: it’s subject to the same oil prices, you know. Why have other countries gone on to massively exceed former peaks in GDP while experiencing the same oil price rises? It’s not just developing countries, either. In Europe, countries like Germany, Sweden Switzerland, Austria and Poland are prominent economies that by the end of 2012 will have produced more than ever before in their histories, while abroad Canada, Australia and the United States are only a slight shade under their per capita production peaks. Unemployment in the US is a problem, but in countries like Canada, Germany and Australia it is already well under levels seen during the 90s and early 2000s (ie times of higher economic growth). To repeat: these are all advanced economies subject to the same international oil prices.

    John Williams at Shadow Gov’t Statistics, who calculates unemployment the way the gov’t used to in the ’70s (before they started tweaking how they counted, in order to conceal the bitter truth) says unemployment is 22%.

    Yes, he loves to claim this. Personally, I don’t believe a word of it. I think he’s just catering to the doomsayer market. To be honest, I haven’t looked into his claims about unemployment. But I did look into his claims about inflation and came away unconvinced and I think it’ll prove a similar story with unemployment. None of this matters to those prepared to believe the very worst, though.

  5. Kunstler and Yergin are both Jews. Their views of Peak Oil are diametrically opposed. So one of them has to be more right than wrong.

    I’ve just started reading Yergin’s “The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World”. I think when it comes to overall knowledge of the oil industry, my Jew trumps your Jew 🙂

  6. Don’t you people here at “OD” get tired aways trying to figure out whose a jew, and whose not a jew ? It’s mind-numbingly boring. Just read the goddamned article(s) and discern the goddamned words — words stand on their own, so to speak — Just read the article(s) and discern the words, decide if you agree or disagree, then explain why you came to your conclusion. That’s all. You don’t have to waste any time and energy trying to figure out whose a jew and whose not a jew.* It’s very boring. It’s like you all can’t figure out if you agree or disagree with something until you know if the author of an article is a jew or not. Laughing online.
    * At the great risk of being banned from The Occident and thrown into white slavery in China or god knows where , jews don’t have a monopoly on mendacity. There’s plenty of white “christian” liars. Stitloads of “em. That’s reality.
    Just read the goddamned words of an article(s), figure the words out — have a problem with that, get yourself a dictionary [a thesaurus is always a good idea as well] then decide, in a preferably level-headed way, if you agree or disagree. One doesn’t have to waste any time figuring out whose a jew and whose not a jew to figure out the meanings of words — one especially doesn’t have to get into a tizzy over the “jew” matter to figure out what words mean. Laughing online.
    Heinberg sounds like a paid shill for a Washington think-tank. Most likely a Rockefeller funded and controlled think tank. The Russians discovered oil is abiotic back in the 1950’s. Google it. Peak Oil is an excuse for uncle sam to increase his imperial Rothschild/Rockefeller empire. The Rockefellers being agents and representatives for the Rothschilds since the 19th century. They’re buddy-buddies from way back.
    Slavery ain’t comin’ back. Mammy is gone with the wind. I don’t blame her**. The few who post at “OD” who have a burning-yearning desire for a return to slavery will just have to immigrate to Africa where they still practice slavery as per Fr John+, his blessed holiness [Himself]. 50 bucks or so will get you the slave you’ve been dreaming about all your life, as per above “blessed holiness”.
    ** Doesn’t mean I condone black criminal behavior. I have written many posts ( with links) about the importance of learning how to protect one’s self, family, home , and business from black criminals ( and criminals of all stripes). No posts accusing me of being easy on blacks just because I pointed out your Mammy has done flown the coop and ain’t ever coming back to Tara to change your diapers– let alone pic’ ya’ your precious cotton-pickin’ cotton.

  7. Joe is a bit like the looney prosecutor in the Amanda Knox trial.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Meredith_Kercher

    he’s got to figure out a way to implicate innocent white people in a murder clearly committed by a feral African. Invent satanic rituals, invent a pyschosexual deviancy…
    It’s endless. Knox is a normal person. Guede is a cannibal paracite. The prosecutor felt a need to complicate it all and drag a sweet looking couple into a sick fantasy.

    The reality of mendacity is that halfwit subhumans commit the crimes that really do
    affect you and hostile elites try to trick you into looking the other way. Simples. And it happened in Italy.

  8. @John
    The innocent white people who can’t even figure out the meanings of words unless they know if an author is Jewish or not deserve to be “implicated” : Such innocent white people deserve to be laughed out. Laughing online.
    Jack the Ripper: I think , from what I’ve read on the matter : Jack the Ripper was a Jew from Poland living in London. For some reason – I don’t know why exactly– the big-shots in London covered up the truth about Jack the Ripper. There’s a possibility Jack the Ripper had some kind of connection ( not a blood connection necessarily) with the royal family and/or some other high-ranking types in London. That’s my opinion on Jack the Ripper ; That’s the conclusion I’ve come to based on my reading about the matter : However off -topic the subject most certainly is.
    I never said Italians are perfect. Quite the opposite. Go back and read all my posts about the subject of Italians, if you care to. One will see clearly I do not consider either myself or other Italians, either Americans of Italian descent or Italians in Italy, to be perfect. Quite the opposite.
    Still, the faults of the Italian people are the same exact faults as those of any other group of people . Every manner of sin and crime can be found in Italy, just as in any country of the world: including ALL the other countries that comprise The Occident , as Italy most certainly does : However off -topic the subject most certainly is.
    Ciao.

  9. “None of this matters to those prepared to believe the very worst, though.”

    Me? A Doomer? Well, yeah, at least a little bit. Without a bit of Doomer in the soul somewhere, I’d be smiling about the the happy-clappy multiculti Rainbows and Unicorns on Parade future MSM promises, instead of here, hoping this website and others can awaken Whites before the White Genocide program runs to completion.

    My awakening went like this: 2004, looking for books about investments. Read Twilight in the Desert. Stark terror. Can’t be! Read more. Ugh, this looks real!
    Bought gold. Used to post on Kitco. Posters there could rant about Illuminati conspiracies, gold-price suppression conspiracies, the Reptile Agenda, whatever. But Kitco banned me for saying something unflattering about a YKW. Clearly, you can say anything there save one thing: NO JEW CONSPIRACIES ALLOWED.

    Wow, I thought. That’s weird. Jews, who we all know are powerless, you’re not allowed to talk about them Who made that rule? and how? and why?

    That got me curious. What *else* that “everybody knows” is utterly false around here?
    Unrelated, I was mad about what had happened to beautiful Cali, which lead me to VDARE and Steve Sailer

    You mean, you mean, what all the old timey unreconstructed racists said was, gulp, true?
    You mean David Duke DOESN’T have horns and a tail?
    You mean, Whites, pretty much entirely, invented and built everything I love?

    And, upon close inspection you see, the jews, the powerless jews, the poor, few in number jews, control, or at least are involved in, the MSM lies, the gov’t, academia, striking down Cal’s SOS initiative –the last gasp of White Cal to live– and the gold price suppression scheme?

    Conclusion: pretty much MSM tells lies. In fact, I now believe it’s safe to assume as a default mode, it’s lies until proven true. David Yergin is as mainstream as it gets, but Colin Campbell was the target of hoots of derision by mainstream, the same mainstream that hoots in derision at Southern White Christian men.
    Who turned out to be right? Colin Campbell. Any White guy willing to stick to his guns and insist what he’s saying is the truth, in spite of the full brunt of howling by those with the bullhorn who’d rather he’d shut up, that guy is worth paying attention to.

  10. jew-joe goes on about jews more then anyone; until he doesn’t want to. very unstable and unsteady in his thinking

  11. I NEVER get tired of looking for Jews. In FACT – I always check how Who is Jew, and Who is Not Jew Jews live by this rule.

    We need ot learn to do this as well.

    Western Whites have been very Jew-daized. Corrupted by Jews, to serve Jewish needs, and not our own needs. In order to hel pend this corruption, and discplacement, and geneocide – one must Expose and Name Die Jude. You can’t fix a plumbing leak, in a house, by looking as the wooden bannisters on a stairway. You have to look at the pipes, wot are leaking. Not payng attention to race, and racial interests, is what got Whites into this pickle in the first place. Sniffing out a Jude helps one act.

  12. Silver,

    100 million is the number I use in my amateur speculations about the world in the next few decades, so that doesn’t come as a surprise. I’ve never heard anyone claim Alberta or any one particular oil field is going to “save us all,” though. The point is simply that the production from new fields and new sources of oil equivalent will supplant the declining production from old fields. That could be wrong, I’ll grant, but it just doesn’t seem to me the slam dunk case that peakoilers claim it is.

    In what sense are tar sands, shale oil, oil shale, and kerogen “oil fields”? The tar sands in Alberta are not an “oil field.” That’s the key difference between conventional oil and unconventional oil.

  13. I’m amazed that ripperologists didn’t take a look at the Africans in the Eastend.

    The two main suspects who were Jews appear to have been insane asylum inmates. It’s also possible that the killings were unrelated. But today there’s a statistical likelyhood that 50% of the murders in London are by Blacks. I pause to wonder if perhaps the same wasn’t true back then. A nigger with a knife and some anatomical understanding
    could have easily been the guilty party. The coppers never even looked into it.

  14. @John and All Readers :
    There was no need for Scotland Yard (or any kind of “ripperologist” ) to think a black committed the Jack the Ripper murders. There were witnesses who saw a white man leave the scenes of many of the murders.
    All evidence points to a Jew from Poland living in London. He somehow, and for some reason, had the protection of some powerful and connected big-shot(s) in London.
    Google it. However off-topic the Jack the Ripper story is from “Limits to Growth : Neo-Slavery.”

  15. Hi, John!

    “A nigger with a knife and some anatomical understanding
    could have easily been the guilty party. The coppers never even looked into it.”

    I suspect Scotland Yard knew what it was doing. This was, after all, prior to the Age of Multicult. Scotland Yard knew that the cuts were made by someone with surgical training. They no doubt understood it’s preposterous to think a black, low IQ as they are, would have such high IQ knowledge. Even a rare smart nigger, where would he get the knowledge? Blacks weren’t given the red carpet into Victorian era medical schools, as there was no PC-driven Affirmative Action. And self-taught? Pish-posh. Even smart niggers don’t like to read.

  16. Re: Silver

    http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil&months=60

    In 2008, the average price of a barrel of crude oil was over $100 for 6 out of 12 months. As speculators flooded into the commodities markets in Spring 2008, it ranged from $114 to $147 per barrel over a four month period in Summer 2008: May 2008, Jun 2008, July 2008, and August 2008.

    Here’s a chart of GDP growth:

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/imagecache/embedded_img_small/image/image_file/gdp_7-11.jpg

    The American economy grew by 1.3 percent in Q2 2008. That means it grew by 1.3 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter: January 2008, February 2008, and March 2008.

    In March 2008, the average price of a barrel of crude oil soared past $100 a barrel. It hit $109 in April 2008, $122 in May 2008, and $131 in June 2008. Mysteriously, the “Great Recession” began in Q3 2008, when the economy contracted by 3.7 percent, which is to say, during April 2008, May 2008, and June 2008.

    In July 2008, August 2008, and September 2008, the average price of crude oil was $132, $114, and $99. The average price of crude oil peaked at $147 a barrel in July 2008 and began to collapse in August 2008 and September 2008.

    In Q4 2008, which is to say, July 2008, August 2008, and September 2008, the American economy plunged off the cliff. It contracted by 8.9 percent during the worst period of the “Great Recession.”

    In October 2008, November 2008, and December 2008, the average price of crude oil was $72, $54, $41. The American economy contracted by a further 6.7 percent during Q1 2009, which is to say, Oct 2008, Nov 2008, and Dec 2008, as Q1 2009 measures the rate of growth from the fourth quarter to the first quarter.

    That’s the oil story of 2008: the average price of crude oil surged past $100 a barrel in Spring 2008. It exploded to a record high of $147 per barrel in July 2008. Then the average price of crude oil collapsed after the American economy tipped into recession during Q3 2008, Q4 2008, and Q1 2009.

  17. Here’s the average monthly price of oil in 2009 juxtaposed against GDP growth in 2009:

    http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil&months=60
    http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/imagecache/embedded_img_small/image/image_file/gdp_7-11.jpg

    Q2 2009

    Jan 2009 – $43
    Feb 2009 – $41
    Mar 2009 – $46

    GDP Growth – -0.7

    Q3 2009

    Apr 2009 – $50
    May 2009 – $58
    Jun 2009 – $69

    GDP growth – +1.7

    Q4 2009

    July 2009 – $64
    Aug 2009 – $71
    Sept 2009 – $68

    GDP Growth – +3.8

    Q1 2010

    Oct 2009 – $74
    Nov 2009 – $77
    Dec 2009 – $74

    GDP Growth – +3.9

    The American economy entered 2009 in a tailspin that began with the parabolic rise in crude oil prices in Spring 2008 and Summer 2008. The price of crude oil began to collapse in August 2008 as the American economy contracted.

    In the first quarter of 2009, which is Q2 2009, the recession bottomed out and the so-called “recovery” began. The average monthly price of crude oil also bottomed out $41 a barrel in Feb 2008. It too began its “recovery.”

    In Q3 2009, Q4 2009, and Q1 2010, the American economy grew by 1.7 percent, 3.8 percent, and 3.9 percent. The price of crude oil also grew from $41 dollars a barrel in Feb 2009 to $74 dollars a barrel in Dec 2009.

    In 2009, the story in the MSM was that America had been through a catastrophic recession under Bush, but Obama was now in office and the “recession” had ended during the first quarter of 2009. The “recovery” had began and seemed to be gaining steam through the rest of 2009.

  18. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil&months=60
    http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/imagecache/embedded_img_small/image/image_file/gdp_7-11.jpg

    Q2 2010

    Jan 2010 – $77
    Feb 2010 – $74
    Mar 2010 – $79

    GDP Growth – +3.8

    Q3 2010

    Apr 2010 – $84
    May 2010 – $75
    Jun 2010 – $74

    GDP Growth – +2.5

    Q4 2010

    Jul 2010 – $74
    Aug 2010 – $75
    Sept 2010 – $76

    GDP Growth – +2.3

    Q1 2011

    Oct 2010 – $81
    Nov 2010 – $84
    Dec 2010 – $90

    GDP Growth – +0.4

    In 2010, the economy and the average price of crude oil stagnate, but crude goes up in the fourth quarter of 2010 to $90 dollars a barrel, and the economy starts to go a little sideways and comes close to tipping back into recession.

  19. http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil&months=60
    http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/imagecache/embedded_img_small/image/image_file/gdp_7-11.jpg
    http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57367333/gdp-growth-in-q4-good-not-great/
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/27/us-gdp-growth-q1-2012_n_1458628.html
    http://www.newsdaily.com/stories/bre85r0q3-us-usa-economy-gdp/

    Q2 2011

    Jan 2011 – $92
    Feb 2011 – $97
    Mar 2011 – $108

    GDP Growth – +1.3

    Q3 2011

    Apr 2011 – $116
    May 2011 – $108
    Jun 2011 – $105

    GDP Growth – +1.8

    Q4 2011

    Jul 2011 – $107
    Aug 2011 – $100
    Sept 2011 – $100

    GDP Growth – +3.0

    Q1 2012

    Oct 2011 – $99
    Nov 2011 – $105
    Dec 2011 – $104

    GDP Growth – +1.9

    In 2011, we had almost a year of the average monthly price of crude oil hovering around $100 a barrel. The average American experienced this in the form of significantly higher gas prices than in 2009 or 2010. The American economy was sluggish throughout 2011 growing an anemic 1.3 percent and 1.8 percent in the first half of the year.

    The second half of the year is much less clear. The numbers have been revised several times now. The most recent revision has Q1 2012 GDP growth down to 1.9 percent. The average American experienced 2011 as a shitty economy with elevated gas prices and a weak job market.

  20. http://www.economist.com/node/21557770

    Moving into 2012 … we don’t have the GDP quarterly growth numbers yet for Q2 2012 (Jan 2012, Feb 2012, Mar 2012) or Q3 2012 (Apr 2012, May 2012, Jun 2012). We do have the monthly numbers of the average monthly price of crude oil though:

    Q2 2012

    Jan 2012 – $106
    Feb 2012 – $112
    Mar 2012 – $117

    GDP Growth – ??

    Q3 2012

    Apr 2012 – $113
    May 2012 – $104
    Jun 2012 – $90

    GDP Growth – ??

    So, we know that the average monthly price of crude oil was over $100 a barrel for five months in 2012 before falling off to $90 in June, and that it was over $110 for three months, and that it reached almost $130 a barrel again at one point during March.

    It should be interesting to see what the pulse of the American economy was in Q2 2012 and Q3 2012. We know that Chinese growth is expected to hit a three year low when the report comes out on Friday;

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/12/us-china-economy-gdp-idUSBRE86B13Z20120712

  21. Re: Silver

    By what measure?

    Well, I suppose we could use Paul Krugman’s definition:

    http://www.amazon.com/End-This-Depression-Paul-Krugman/dp/0393088774

    There were periods of “recovery” in the Great Depression. It wasn’t a recession that lasted for ten years.

    Eyeballing this chart the average price of crude was the same in the first quarter of 2011 as in the last quarter (~$100).

    Q1 2011 was October 2010, November 2010, and December 2010. The average price of crude oil ranged from $81 to $91. The economy grew by 0.4 percent – its weakest performance since the “recovery” began, when the average price of crude oil was higher than at any point since Q3 2008.

    Annualized First Quarter growth in 2011 was indeed low, 0.4%; but annualized Fourth Quarter growth was a healthy 3.0%. Link (Scroll to “Table 1?)

    The average price of crude oil wasn’t the same in Q1 2011 and Q4 2011. It ranged from $81 to $91 in Q1 2011 and from $107 to $100 in Q4 2011. The economy didn’t grow at a “healthy” 3 percent either – Q4 2011 was an anomaly that is explained by inventory expansion.

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2838733/posts

    The Q1 2012 results show the economy ratcheted back down to 1.9 percent growth.

    The point is you attempted to connect high oil prices to slower economic growth. So the fact that the average price (the average price Hunter, the average) was roughly the same during Quarters I and IV while annualized growth was very low during QI and reasonably high during QIV tends to rebut this contention of yours.

    Is there a connection between high oil prices and slower economic growth?

    (1) In Q3 2008, the average monthly price of crude oil hit $109 in April 2008, $122 in May 2008, and $131 in June 2008. Mysteriously, the “Great Recession” began in Q3 2008, when the economy contracted by 3.7 percent, which is to say, during April 2008, May 2008, and June 2008.

    (2) The economy was rebounding until Q3 2010 when the price of crude oil started to creep back up into the $80 a barrel range. Then it began to sputter and the growth rate declined.

    (3) In 2011, we had 10 consecutive months of $100 a barrel oil and an annual growth rate of around 1.9 percent. It would have been lower than that were it not for Q4 2011 when inventory expansion boosted the economy.

    Not really.

    If growth in Q4 2011 was driven by inventory expansion instead of robust consumer spending, it wouldn’t be surprising to find out that 3 percent growth was a mirage, and that’s exactly what the Q1 2012 results show.

    The unemployment rate decreased throughout 2011 and, technically, has continued to in 2012, although it would best be described a flatlining. All in all, not what I’d consider signs impending doom.

    The official unemployment rate doesn’t count people who have given up looking for work. The unemployment rate goes down when people quit searching for jobs.

  22. Re: Silver

    I’m interested in the raw numbers, not your impressions of the MSM.

    I’ve provided all the raw numbers above: the average monthly price of crude oil and the quarterly GDP growth rate.

    The raw numbers (which I linked to, but you appear to have ignored) state that the economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.4% in QI 2011.

    Yes, the economy nearly back into recession during the last three months of 2010.

    If you look at the chart of oil prices you linked to you will see that the oil price didn’t hit a local peak until QII 2011.

    If you look at the average monthly price of crude oil, you will find that the price was higher in Q1 2011 that at any point since Q3 2008 – it have moved up to about $90 dollars in the last three months of 2010.

    During QI the average price (do you understand the concept) was roughly the same as the average price during QIV. Look at your own chart.

    I’ve already done so – the average price of crude oil was higher in Q4 2011 than Q1 2011, but businesses were replacing their inventory, so the economy grew at 3 percent, which was revised up from 2.8 percent, and then sunk back down 1.9 percent in Q1 2012.

    Bring it down to 2 years (rather than 5 years) and you’ll see that the average price was roughly the same in QI and QIV (the average price, not the peak price during the quarter, since oil was purchased at all those prices, not merely the peak price). If growth was low during QI while growth was reasonable during QIV then the relationship to oil prices that you think exists suffers a blow.

    Not really.

    Overall, we can see that growth collapsed and the economy tipped into a severe recession in Q3 2008 when the average price of crude oil surged to $147. The economy started to warm back up in 2009 and 2010 when oil prices were below $75 dollars a barrel.

    In the last part of 2010, the economy started to sag again as crude oil climbed above $75 a barrel, and when it reached $90 a barrel, the economy came close to tipping back into recession.

    In 2011, the average price of crude oil was $100 to $110 dollars a barrel, and the economy grew at an annual rate of around 1.9 percent. The sole exception being Q4 2011 when businesses were replacing inventory and consumer spending (which is sensitive to changes in oil prices) was less reflected in quarterly GDP growth.

    Also, the economy started recovering during 2009 and continued to recover all throughout 2010. The recovery didn’t start in 2011.

    The recession ended in Q2 2009. The same is true of the decline in the average price of crude oil. The rate of growth was initially high, but sputtered in mid-2010 as crude oil climbed back toward $100 a barrel. It stagnated at around 1.9 percent throughout 2011.

    What happened? After a prolonged period of high gas prices, the uptick in the economy fizzled out. Now the price of oil and gas has gone back down again.

    Wrong. Look at your own damn charts and compare the quarterly growth numbers.

    Yes, if you look at the charts and quarterly growth numbers, you will see the “recovery” fizzling out and nearly collapsing back into recession in late 2010. You will also see it stagnating through 2011.

    Also, unemployment declined all throughout 2011; the decline didn’t “fizzle out” because oil went up or down. If the relationship was as strong as seem to think why has the decline in the unemployment rate stalled out this year while oil has plummeted from 110 to the 80s? My answer is simple: the relationship isn’t very strong (at these price ranges; if oil went to $300, different story).

    (1) First, we don’t have any actual numbers from this year. We have the Q1 2012 numbers that cover October, November, and December 2011.

    (2) Second, we know that the average price of crude oil surged above $110 a barrel in Q2 2012 and Q3 2012, almost hitting $130 a barrel in March, before collapsing in June. We don’t yet know what effect that had on the economy because the numbers haven’t been released yet.

    (3) Third, the unemployment rate measures people who are searching for jobs. If people quit searching for jobs because they are relying on social services, they are not counted.

    (4) Fourth, we know that the decline in the workforce participation rate is greater than the decline in the unemployment rate.

    http://cnsnews.com/blog/gregory-gwyn-williams-jr/unemployment-rate-dips-01-workforce-participation-rate-falls-02

    (5) It is true that oil collapsed by 28 percent in May 2012 and June 2012. That means we will see the effect of that in the Q3 2012 GDP growth rate when those numbers are released several months from now.

    BTW, when the price of oil collapsed in August 2008, the economy had gone into a severe recession in Q3 and Q4 2008.

  23. As for Silver’s comments about foreign countries, 70 percent of the U.S. economy is based on consumer spending.

    The average monthly price of crude oil is reflected in the price of gasoline. It doesn’t take too much imagination to figure out how that affects the economy. If gasoline is more expensive, you have less money to spend in your budget, which means you might not take that vacation or eat out at that restaurant because you are relatively poorer.

    How much more expensive is it to haul all that imported junk around into the big box stores? How much more expensive is it to buy food at the grocery store?

  24. Hey, guys, this is totally off topic, but does anyone know how to treat capzasin ointment burn?

    I did a totally bonehead thing; my husband hurt his back lifting his dad. So just I put capzasin on it liberally like it’s ben gay or something. OH CRAP, my husband is Whitey McWhite and it’s burning the —— out of the skin on his back.
    I’m icing it, it’s not getting better. Tried dishsoap and cooking oil like the pkg says and it’s not getting better.
    What do I do?

  25. Honestly, Hunter, I have to say, it’s like debating a nigger. 🙂

    A major source of confusion is this:

    Q1 2011 was October 2010, November 2010, and December 2010.

    No, QI 2011 was January, February, March 2011. You’re using the definition of the federal fiscal year, which starts on October 1, but economic growth is measured in calendar years.

    So using that we have:

    Jan $93, Feb $98, Mar $108 – QI 2011 growth 0.4%
    Oct $100, Nov $105, Dec $104 – QIV 2011 growth 3.0%

    I was wrong that the price of oil was the same in QI and QIV; it was actually more expensive in QIV, which goes even further to discredit the link between oil price and growth you claim exists.

    If growth in Q4 2011 was driven by inventory expansion instead of robust consumer spending, it wouldn’t be surprising to find out that 3 percent growth was a mirage, and that’s exactly what the Q1 2012 results show.

    Lol, there is no fucking way in hell economics is such a precise science that such small fluctuations can be perfectly accounted for, no way in hell. Of course, the public loves to believe that the Big People have their finger on the pulse so the media dutifully reports even daily stock market fluctuations, which are just totally fucking meaningless.

    There were periods of “recovery” in the Great Depression. It wasn’t a recession that lasted for ten years.

    It was four straight years of negative growth, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, after which recovery began and there were four straight years of growth 1934, 1935, 1936, 1937, another year of recession in 1938, and then finally in 1939 the 1929 GDP peak was exceeded, and in 1940 the per capita GDP peak.

    That’s vastly different to what occurred this time, in which growth was negative for only four straight quarters.

    The peak to trough decline was some 29% (31% per capita), while this time it was only some 4%.

    Unemployment remained above 15% (and closer to 20%) for the entire decade of the 1930s, while this time it barely nudged above 10%. But I can accept that unemployment measures perhaps understate the true rate nowadays.

    The official unemployment rate doesn’t count people who have given up looking for work. The unemployment rate goes down when people quit searching for jobs.

    This has been true for decades, it didn’t just begin with this recession.

    The best comparison for the economic woes of this period isn’t the 1930s, it’s the stagnation of the early 1980s, which was likewise brought on by an international financial crisis. Then too recovery took longer than anyone wanted and unemployment hovered around 10% for a couple of years.

  26. Silver,

    Are you sure?

    This is the link that you provided earlier in this thread:

    http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2012/txt/gdp1q12_3rd.txt

    Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.

    Q1 2012 = October 2011, November 2011, December 2011

    Now take a look at this graph:

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/imagecache/embedded_img_small/image/image_file/gdp_7-11.jpg

    We’re measuring the growth from the preceding quarter.

  27. Silver,

    I was wrong that the price of oil was the same in QI and QIV; it was actually more expensive in QIV, which goes even further to discredit the link between oil price and growth you claim exists.

    How so?

    The link between the average monthly price of crude oil, which is reflected in the average price of gasoline, and quarterly economic growth is consumer spending which accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

    If businesses are just replacing their inventory that quarter (which explains the uptick to 3 percent in Q4 2011), that would easily explain your “healthy” growth while consumer spending remained pretty weak in part due to high gasoline prices.

    Remember, the growth rate in Q2 2011 was 1.3, the growth rate in Q3 2011 was 1.8, the growth rate in Q4 was 3.0, and the growth rate in Q1 was 1.9.

    Lol, there is no fucking way in hell economics is such a precise science that such small fluctuations can be perfectly accounted for, no way in hell. Of course, the public loves to believe that the Big People have their finger on the pulse so the media dutifully reports even daily stock market fluctuations, which are just totally fucking meaningless.

    Well, if you look at 2011 as a whole, you will find that the annual growth rate was around 1.8 or 1.9 percent, which is about what you would expect in an economy based on “consumer spending” when the average price of a barrel of oil is over $100.

    Of course, it is a different story in a country like China or Germany, which has an economy based on exports.

  28. “Call a doc. Antihistamines?”

    He doesn’t have one. We use urgent care for drs. because his insurance has a 5000 deductible and no ofc. visit bennies.

    I put sour cream on it. Then he showered again. It seems like it’s getting better.

  29. Fr. John,

    Every WordPress blog has a spam filter. Sometimes comments with two or more links get caught in the moderation section. I have to manually approve them. Sometimes they get lost in Akismet purgatory which I don’t normally check because we get 100s of those a day.

  30. OT,

    this is just parlour game fun btw, the medical opinion on the organ removals was split. Some said there were signs of skill. Some said it was just hamhanded butchery.

    The genital manipulation is also bit odd.

    http://blackpeoria.wordpress.com/list-of-black-serial-killers/

    it’s just ripperology anyway so it’s just fun n games. You’d only need to have a blade to do what he is reported to have done, and the nigs in London do love their blades. Given that it was never solved I am surpused it never became a source of speculation.

  31. “The few who post at “OD” who have a burning-yearning desire for a return to slavery will just have to immigrate to Africa where they still practice slavery as per Fr John+, his blessed holiness [Himself]. 50 bucks or so will get you the slave you’ve been dreaming about all your life, as per above “blessed holiness”.”

    Joe- sometimes you make sense, and then there is the rest of the time.

    I’ve never advocated a return to slavery. I merely point out that the Bible condones it, and encourages is as a generational asset among the ‘Chosen People.’ I’d no sooner emigrate to Africa, as you would to Stonington, VT, – where they are all white.

    Living in Sac’ato, the smog and heat must have gotten to your mind. I’ve also never said I was ‘holier than thou’ just ‘whiter than most.’ If YHWH God determines that means I am a child of Adam, then, so be it.

  32. Re: Silver

    It was four straight years of negative growth, 1930, 1931, 1932, 1933, after which recovery began and there were four straight years of growth 1934, 1935, 1936, 1937, another year of recession in 1938, and then finally in 1939 the 1929 GDP peak was exceeded, and in 1940 the per capita GDP peak.

    Yes, it was a “double dip” recession. There was a “recovery” sandwiched in between those two recessions. It probably didn’t feel like much of a “recovery” at the time. It doesn’t feel like much of a “recovery” today either.

    Even if the economy were to recover to 2008 levels, there are a lot more people here in 2012 and “growth” isn’t keeping pace with population growth, and the national debt certainly isn’t about to “recover” to 2008 levels anytime soon.

    That’s vastly different to what occurred this time, in which growth was negative for only four straight quarters. The peak to trough decline was some 29% (31% per capita), while this time it was only some 4%.

    Oh, I agree.

    It seems pretty clear that an oil shock caused by chaos in financial markets triggered the recession this time around. Not the first time it has happened either.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973%E2%80%9375_recession
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_energy_crisis

    There was a similar oil shock and financial collapse/monetary crisis back in the 1970s a few years after America peaked in 1970. It is not surprising that there another oil shock and financial collapse a few years after the world peaked in 2006.

    The point was that there was a “recovery” in the Great Depression. That remains true. The point was not that the Great Depression and the present 2008-2012 Global Depression stem from the same causes.

    There was plenty of oil in the 1930s. There were plenty of factories. Oil was dirt cheap back then.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932012_global_recession

  33. This has been true for decades, it didn’t just begin with this recession.

    As barb noted above, the official unemployment rate isn’t an accurate measure of unemployment in the United States.

    The unemployment rate has gone down, but that doesn’t mean the workforce participation rate has gone up – a decline in the unemployment rate doesn’t necessarily mean that the labor market is better and that people are finding jobs.

    The best comparison for the economic woes of this period isn’t the 1930s, it’s the stagnation of the early 1980s, which was likewise brought on by an international financial crisis. Then too recovery took longer than anyone wanted and unemployment hovered around 10% for a couple of years.

    Here’s a visualization of BRA’s recovery:

    http://www.occidentaldissent.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/ScaryJobChart.jpg
    http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/05/04/chart-of-the-day-recovery-still-weak/

  34. There’s nothing in that bolded passage or the graph that you posted that implies QI = Oct, Nov, Dec 2011. We’re talking about (annualized) quarterly growth as measured from the previous quarter, yes, but so what? Q IV still equals the last three months of the calendar year.

  35. Hunter,

    The link between the average monthly price of crude oil, which is reflected in the average price of gasoline, and quarterly economic growth is consumer spending which accounts for 70 percent of the U.S. economy.

    If businesses are just replacing their inventory that quarter (which explains the uptick to 3 percent in Q4 2011), that would easily explain your “healthy” growth while consumer spending remained pretty weak in part due to high gasoline prices.

    Growth rates change all the time. It’s an exercise in futility to attempt pin down precisely why growth in one quarter was 2.6%, say, while in another it was 1.2%. I think I’m going to hoarse repeating that economics simply isn’t that precise that it can account for the myriad of factors influencing economic activity over such short periods, it just can’t kid. Not that it stops the nitwits on CNBC from trying. Funniest of all are mainstream (non-econ) media types, who’ll faithfully report that some country (Turkey, say) “is growing at X%”. Fucking meaningless! This year they might grow at 6% but so what, next year they could grown -3%. The phrase “is growing at” is totally fucking misleading. You’re not much better, I’m afraid. Oh, oh, this quarter it was inventories, but the quarter after that it was… get real Hunter.

    Nevertheless, despite not being able to say for sure just what is influences small fluctuations over short periods of time, I can still claim that the evidence doesn’t bear out the strong relationship between oil prices and growth you claim exists. I’m not disputing that a relationship exists at all. I’m disputing that the relationship is as powerful as you appear to believe. There’s nothing in the data here to bear that out.

    Well, if you look at 2011 as a whole, you will find that the annual growth rate was around 1.8 or 1.9 percent, which is about what you would expect in an economy based on “consumer spending” when the average price of a barrel of oil is over $100.

    Come off it, as if I could just give you some numbers and you could tell me what growth rate “you would expect,” as if it’s that simple. I think it’s just a case of you hating “consumerism” so much it warps your brain.

    Of course, it is a different story in a country like China or Germany, which has an economy based on exports.

    There are plenty of European countries whose household consumption forms a similar proportion of GDP as Germany’s (mid-to-high 50s) who are definitely not out of the woods, eg Belgium, Netherlands, Italy. Again, it’s a case of things not being as simple as you make them out to be.

    As barb noted above, the official unemployment rate isn’t an accurate measure of unemployment in the United States.

    She didn’t “note it,” she suggested it may not. But it doesn’t matter anyway because it’s been measured the same way for decades. It’d be a different story if they measured it one way in the 90s — in a way more reflective of the “true level,” say — and then they changed to a different method when the recession started a few years in order to make unemployment look lower than what it actually is.

  36. The unemployment rate has gone down, but that doesn’t mean the workforce participation rate has gone up – a decline in the unemployment rate doesn’t necessarily mean that the labor market is better and that people are finding jobs.

    That’s a fair point. The labor force participation rate has been declining. Don’t be too quick to attribute the decline to discouraged workers, though. For example, the decline in the participation of males is part of a decades long trend, not something that just happened yesterday. I don’t know too much more about participation, so I’ll leave it at that, but I’ll look into it and I’m sure there will be some factor other than FINAL DOOM.

  37. Re: Silver

    “Growth rates change all the time. It’s an exercise in futility to attempt pin down precisely why growth in one quarter was 2.6%, say, while in another it was 1.2%. I think I’m going to hoarse repeating that economics simply isn’t that precise that it can account for the myriad of factors influencing economic activity over such short periods, it just can’t kid. Funniest of all are mainstream (non-econ) media types, who’ll faithfully report that some country (Turkey, say) “is growing at X%”. Fucking meaningless! This year they might grow at 6% but so what, next year they could grown -3%. The phrase “is growing at” is totally fucking misleading. You’re not much better, I’m afraid. Oh, oh, this quarter it was inventories, but the quarter after that it was… get real Hunter.”

    Here’s the Reuters story:

    http://news.yahoo.com/economic-growth-quickens-q4-speed-bumps-ahead-133522308.html;_ylt=As6vg1rIzJfuBjcrRsGyEG6yBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTNmNTc2YjdoBG1pdAMEcGtnAzJjMzQ3MTk0LTQ4MzYtMzA0NS1hMGY3LTdmNWNiYjk3NWEzYwRwb3MDMQRzZWMDbG5fRWNvbm9teV9nYWwEdmVyA2JlYzQ4ZjIwLTQ4ZWMtMTFlMS1iZmZmLWZkNGU3MzYwMzk2YQ–;_ylv=3

    “Inventories increased $56.0 billion, adding 1.94 percentage points to GDP growth. Excluding inventories, the economy grew at a tepid 0.8 percent rate, a sharp step-down from the prior period’s 3.2 percent pace.

    The robust stock accumulation suggest the recovery will lose a step in early 2012.”

    Come off it, as if I could just give you some numbers and you could tell me what growth rate “you would expect,” as if it’s that simple. I think it’s just a case of you hating “consumerism” so much it warps your brain.

    Hating consumerism has nothing to do with it.

    Does the consumer thrive when oil prices are high? It doesn’t look to me like the consumer was thriving at all during Summer 2008 when the economy cratered during an oil shock.

    There are plenty of European countries whose household consumption forms a similar proportion of GDP as Germany’s (mid-to-high 50s) who are definitely not out of the woods, eg Belgium, Netherlands, Italy. Again, it’s a case of things not being as simple as you make them out to be.

    I’m not sure it is profitable to compare European countries to the United States. The majority of Americans live in suburbia. They depend on their automobiles to get back and forth to work. It must be far easier to haul shit around within Belgium or the Netherlands than for the trucking industry to maintain a gazillion big box stores from Nebraska to Florida.

    She didn’t “note it,” she suggested it may not. But it doesn’t matter anyway because it’s been measured the same way for decades. It’d be a different story if they measured it one way in the 90s — in a way more reflective of the “true level,” say — and then they changed to a different method when the recession started a few years in order to make unemployment look lower than what it actually is.

    I don’t recall anyone ever saying otherwise: just because the unemployment rate has gone down, it doesn’t mean that people are finding jobs, or that they are even finding jobs that replace the ones which were lost.

    It is much more likely that they are dropping out of the labor force. The decline in the workforce participate rate, not to mention the attitude toward the economy right now, strongly suggests this.

  38. @John
    Vermont*** is on my list of favorite states, if you don’t mind. I take great risk in revealing this information as I’m now vulnerable to attack by gung-ho galloping johnny rebs of Robert E Lee’s cavalry/militia. I like the northern part of Vermont best. North of Montpelier. I especially like a very small town way up north near the border of Vermont/ Canada ( Quebec province): Montgomery, Vermont.
    I somehow manage to deal with the fact there’s only white Americans there ( albeit yankees ) ; White Americans, woods ( care selve), peace, quiet, and no snide remarks to be heard. Just the sound of my dog barking at the squirrels. “Teddy” dislikes squirrels like you dislike edomites** and esaumites**. My dog Teddy is very devout that way.
    Stonington is in Connecticut *. Did you mean ,”Bennington, Vermont” perchance?
    http://pbpub.com/montgom.htm
    * I don’t do Connecticut : Especially never Stonington/Mystic Connecticut : That’s for tourists ; Not a sophisticated New Yorker I am ( however albeit Italian ).
    ** whoever the hell edomites and esaumites are. I’m not quite sure really, really I’m not. They were like soooo long ago — like 5,000 years or something like that. I always get those weird middle-eastern tribes from 5,000 years ago mixed up. I imagine most people do.
    *** “Freedom and Unity” : [ Official Vermont State motto]
    Official State Tree: “Sugar Maple”. Ciao.

  39. A Heretic! “Joe” forgot the “Fr” and the “+” in the official title in the above post @ :
    [+ Fr John +]

  40. “My Reputation” : A great movie , is playing on TCM this evening. Those old movies hollywood pumped: Great entertainment.
    * Starring * : The One and Only * Barbara Stanwyck *
    Warner Bros : 1946.

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